Chicago Fanatics Message Board
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/

Baseball
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=5810		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Baseball
Let's see if I can catch a little more lightning in a bottle like the second half of last season. I started it off with a good call on taking the AL last night -150. I needed the hiatus after a horrible start to this season.

Right now 1-0 (and no pres/spinning I am not going to catalog the + or- amount).
Author:  Spinnin' Bucket [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
No worries, Dolphin.

60% should be about break-even, and I won’t start harassing you unless you are bragging about your 55% success rate. :wink:
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
It's my understanding that 55% is the point at which you make money.
Author:  Spinnin' Bucket [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
52.5% is approximately break-even when you are laying -110. Baseball, as we discussed before, is an entirely different beast where you rarely lay 11/10. Unless you play a lot of dogs and/or run lines, your winning percentage in baseball should be significantly higher than football & basketball.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
You need much higher than 55% to make money in bases if you bet favorites. Look at the Cardinals, for example. The Cardinals are 48-39, which is 55%. If you had bet the Cardinals every game, by Dolphin's standards you'd think you'd be doing pretty well. Wrong. If you had bet $100 on the Cardinals every game, you would be down $393 on the year. The Yankees are another. They have won 58% of their games, yet $100 Yankees bettors are down $249 on the year. If you bet on teams like the Cardinals, White Sox, Yankees or other teams that are often favorites, you need 60% or so to consistently make money. By the same token, if you bet the right underdogs, you can make money with a losing record. Take Tampa Bay, for example. Here is a team that is 11 games below .500. But if you had bet $100 on them every game, you would be ahead $$ for the year. All of this is to explain why win % in bases are meaningless and irrelevant. You need to measure units and $, not wins.

If you're interested in the team money statistics, you'll find them here:
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLo ... stics.html
Author:  Spinnin' Bucket [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
You need to measure units and $, not wins.


Coast,

Dolphin & I had this conversation a few months ago. I don't think he's interested in going the distance, so to speak, just posting picks and getting feedback. And that's fine by me, I just had to bust his balls a little for posting his record, which as both of us have implied, doesn't mean much in baseball.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
OK Buckets. I missed that context. I'm not into busting anyone's balls either.

Something to look at for the 2nd half: shall we fade Detroit? Detroit was very profitable the first half as they went 59-29 and were a healthy +2727. That means that overall, Detroit was 30/27.27 or an average of -110 on the line for the first half. I believe they will be significantly higher priced the 2nd half. The value is gone from betting the Tigers. And I find it very hard to believe they will continue to play at this pace..and especially plus 18 over 500 on the road. So the question is, will we make money by fading the Tigers the 2nd half? Every game? As chalk? On the road? It would be an automatic fade play of sorts, but one that seems to make sense to me.
Author:  Spinnin' Bucket [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
shall we fade Detroit?


A distinct possibility, but one that requires a fair amount of bankroll to be profitable.

Another angle on Detroit: I'm still waiting for the Tigers to hit a rough patch. What happens if and when they finally drop 10 of 12? Does John Q. Public then believe that Detroit was just playing out of their minds and is not really that great a team? If so, then perhaps they may again become a good value play.
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:22 am ]
Post subject: 
Spinnin' Bucket wrote:
Quote:
shall we fade Detroit?


Another angle on Detroit: I'm still waiting for the Tigers to hit a rough patch. What happens if and when they finally drop 10 of 12? Does John Q. Public then believe that Detroit was just playing out of their minds and is not really that great a team? If so, then perhaps they may again become a good value play.


I believe they hit a rough patch in the 1st half when they played Boston, New York and Chicago all in a row. Unfortunately the Sox were also playing poorly at the time and did not make up any ground until the head to head games.

Coast, Spinnin is correct. The oracle of the commode does not want to sit there until his legs become numb. So here goes:

Twins. How in your right mind could you not take Liriano right now at home. He has been beyond good in just about every start this year. The Twins are always very good at home but this year they have been exceptional.

I also like Boston. Rookie Lester has impressed me this year and I don't think the A's are a team that will give him much problems offensively. Loiza is traditionally a first half pitcher, who had a bad first half. I imagine it is going to be a very rough second half for Esteban, starting with tonight against a very tough offense.
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:43 am ]
Post subject: 
I will sit down and shut up as I clearly do not know what I am talking about.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
Here's something for Sox fans to consider for Thursday, July 20.
Sox -104 @ Detroit.
Contreras and Rodgers are both -104 (pinny) for Thursday's game. Rogers was pounded in his last start by KC and while Contreras didn't have his best stuff against the Yankees last weekend, this guy has been money in big games. I think Rogers' first half will not be repeated in the 2nd half. And consistent with my angle to go against the Tigers, you won't find many better opps. than getting get the Sox' ace at even money against them.
Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
I was thinking the same thing Coast. Rogers fades in the second half on a yearly basis. I believe only 1 of his last 3 outings have been any good. Contrearas has had moments of dominance but seems to get beaten late in games.

The only problem I have is that Ozzie tends to break out the B team on get away days. In many instances the replacements have been just as good as the starter. However Mackowiak in center and Widger at catcher have been horrible this year.

I don't think Ozzie will start Mackowiak given the importance of the game and the size of the Detroit outfield. I think you will see Widger behind the plate. These are two items to look for as game time approaches.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
Good thoughts, Dolphin. I was relieved when I heard Mackowiak was playing today. Thus, he likely won't be in tomorrow.

Early bird gets the worm. Guess I moved the line. :wink: Sox now -118 for Thursday. Could be even more expensive by morning.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Thu Jul 20, 2006 4:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
it's a damn good thing i don't bet much baseball.

Is it football season yet?
Author:  reents [ Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:38 pm ]
Post subject:  wagers
If you wager on preseason, it's two weeks from Sunday for the Eagles vs Raiders
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
Arizona -117 (Webb) at Cubs (Prior)
Cubs bettors are showing a little enthusiasm today, perhaps based on their mini 4-game winning streak. They also might be charged up by the fact that Prior is back on the mound after his 5-1/3 innings of no hit ball in his last start. And they might also be encouraged by the fact that after a great start to the season, Brandon Webb had a bad outing last time out, allowing six runs and six hits in six innings. So The D-Backs opened as 125 favorites and the money has been, predictably, coming in on the Cubs. This is the kind of situation I love...bettors over-reacting to short-term trends. One 5 inning start or a 4-game win streek are not the kind of trends that I get behind. I prefer the long-term picture...Webb has a 1.88 ERA vs. the Cubs, the D-Backs have won 7 of their last 8 vs. the Cubs, and Prior has been as inconsistent as any pitcher this year. D-Backs for the usual baseball unit.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
Texas-Minny OVER 10, -103
I usually don’t share my baseball plays that don’t involve a Chicago team, but I like this one and thought I’d make an exception. (And I’m exuding the confidence borne of a one-game win streak on the board). I think this is a good spot for an over with a couple of good hitting clubs with bottom rotation starters and one team (Texas) with a bullpen in shambles. Adam Eaton makes his second start for the Rangers tonight after recovering from a hand injury. He allowed three runs and walked four in 3 innings in his first start. And he’s also coming off food poisoning which likely has weakened him a bit. He likely won’t go much beyond the 5th inning and the Rangers bullpen has been just horrendous. It’s also used up as the Twins barraged the Rangers for 15 runs last night. Twins starter Scott Baker has struggled in his last three starts, giving up at least three runs in each start...and didn’t go past the 7th inning in any of them. He brings in a less than impressive 6+ ERA into this one. I expect he will offer a great opportunity for the Rangers bats to wake back up after being quieted last night.
Author:  BD [ Tue Aug 01, 2006 2:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Coast2Coast wrote:
Texas-Minny OVER 10, -103
I usually don’t share my baseball plays that don’t involve a Chicago team, but I like this one and thought I’d make an exception. (And I’m exuding the confidence borne of a one-game win streak on the board). I think this is a good spot for an over with a couple of good hitting clubs with bottom rotation starters and one team (Texas) with a bullpen in shambles. Adam Eaton makes his second start for the Rangers tonight after recovering from a hand injury. He allowed three runs and walked four in 3 innings in his first start. And he’s also coming off food poisoning which likely has weakened him a bit. He likely won’t go much beyond the 5th inning and the Rangers bullpen has been just horrendous. It’s also used up as the Twins barraged the Rangers for 15 runs last night. Twins starter Scott Baker has struggled in his last three starts, giving up at least three runs in each start...and didn’t go past the 7th inning in any of them. He brings in a less than impressive 6+ ERA into this one. I expect he will offer a great opportunity for the Rangers bats to wake back up after being quieted last night.


Do you mind sharing more often ? This is really good stuff.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sun Aug 06, 2006 2:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sunday Afternoon on the Left Coast
August 6

Seattle-Oakland under 9.
Both teams look like they are in a bit of a slump at the plate. The first two games of this series both went under. Oakland has gone under five straight and Seattle has gone under in four straight. With the two pitchers today both being in good spots vs. the opposition, I'll ride those streaks. Meche has a 3.58ERA at home in Seattle, which is a tough ballpark in which to score runs. Blanton has been great in three of his last four starts and has also dominated the Mariners this year, allowing just 2 runs in 23 innings.
Author:  good dolphin [ Fri Aug 11, 2006 11:51 am ]
Post subject: 
Since we have all been doing so well on baseball I will give it another shot. Take the Astos -150 tonight against the Braves
Author:  good dolphin [ Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:06 am ]
Post subject: 
That went well and watch for the Astros to make a push the next month and half to the wild card. Pettite is finally pitching well and Clemens is getting into form.

Today, take the Cleveland Indians in game 1 over the Royals. Sabathia is pitching for Cleveland and the suddenly hot Royals lineup will be watered down because of the double header. I especially love them if Sweeney sits the first game for the Royals.
Author:  good dolphin [ Mon Aug 14, 2006 9:12 am ]
Post subject: 
Two in a row, so I will keep going. Colorado Rockies tonight.
Author:  Beardown [ Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sox vs Royals- Take the over.

Don't know what it is. Probrally 9 or 10 but I think the White Sox will get this number by the 5th inning. Plus the Royals are playing well offensivly and they'll get at least 4 off the Sox today. I'm sure it's probrally -140 to bet the over tonight but it's easy money if you ask me.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Mon Aug 14, 2006 5:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
Good luck with your over Beardown. The number is 10-1/2, -110.
Author:  Matt Murton's Beard [ Mon Aug 14, 2006 9:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Good Call Beardown. Made me some money tonight.
Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:45 am ]
Post subject: 
I get no love for resurrecting this thread with a big three game winning streak. Okay, well then I will have to do something very impressive. Take the Pirates tonight.
Author:  Spinnin' Bucket [ Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:28 am ]
Post subject: 
Let it go, Dolphin. Anybody that would pay -140 on an O/U certainly has no appreciation for a Pirates winner.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
White Sox vs Tigers

Take the over. I've got it at 9 (+115). Take the White Sox as well. It's (-104) for me.

This is at least the 3rd time the Sox have seen Kenny Rodgers (maybe the 4th time) and the old man labors late in seasons anyway. I think they've seen the junk he tosses up there enough this season to tag him tonight. I'm not as confident in the Sox but I think they'll pull out a win tonight. It's kind of a back to the wall game based on how they got beat yesterday. I think the team responds well in situations like that. Sorry if I got this to you to late unless it loses. Put more on the over.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:35 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sorry. Hopefully nobody saw this in time. The Sox had plenty of chances to score runs tonight and pissed down their pants. Tigers got 4 and the Sox had chances to match that and get at least a push in this one. Sox offense has been pathetic the past two games.
Page 1 of 2 All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
https://www.phpbb.com/