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Derby Talk -'11 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=58362 |
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Author: | bigfan [ Wed May 04, 2011 6:46 am ] |
Post subject: | Derby Talk -'11 |
Lotta hate on Uncle Mo due to setbacks Weather? Sloppy Dialed In |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 7:01 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Toby's Corner out. Derby Kitten moves up the list. |
Author: | a retard [ Wed May 04, 2011 7:52 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Need some nominees for a group trifecta. STAY THIRSTY? JAYCITO? |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 7:58 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
a retard wrote: Need some nominees for a group trifecta. STAY THIRSTY? JAYCITO? Could Jaycito really be going without a race in so long? If he does, I'd be scared to death of him. |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 9:41 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Joyful Victory in the Oaks on Friday....... also a $2 Oaks /Derby Double Joyful Victory with everything in the Derby hoping a bomb wins the Derby |
Author: | spmack [ Wed May 04, 2011 9:50 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Yelly ans Screamy had on a guy this morning who said Mucho Macho Man may be a contender... |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 10:27 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
spmack wrote: Yelly ans Screamy had on a guy this morning who said Mucho Macho Man may be a contender... That was jockey Gary Stevens of Seabiscuit fame, by Thursday 20 guys will have 20 different horses:) |
Author: | spanky [ Wed May 04, 2011 10:27 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
When is the Derby? Is it coming up? |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 10:37 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
spanky wrote: When is the Derby? Is it coming up? Same day as Hoops MCXXLVI |
Author: | Phil McCracken [ Wed May 04, 2011 10:54 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Q.Bovifs wrote: Serious question: how does one develop a talent for intelligently-following horse racing without going to the track at least once per week? Is it possible to just read blogs, etc? I was always fascinated with guys that knew "horses" and made money at the track, but I never got to finding out the how and why. I mean, when I was fresh out of HS My brother used to bartend at OTB, ad when I would go up there for some free drinks, the shit that some of the guys knew there - i.e. who was on what type of shots, etc., who took a shit that morning - I just found it incredible that anyone could afford to spend that much time learning such things at a gambling establishment without going broke first. Joe: how did you come by your past and present knowledge? This sounds like a job for Terry Boers |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:01 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Q.Bovifs wrote: Serious question: how does one develop a talent for intelligently-following horse racing without going to the track at least once per week? Is it possible to just read blogs, etc? I was always fascinated with guys that knew "horses" and made money at the track, but I never got to finding out the how and why. I mean, when I was fresh out of HS My brother used to bartend at OTB, ad when I would go up there for some free drinks, the shit that some of the guys knew there - i.e. who was on what type of shots, etc., who took a shit that morning - I just found it incredible that anyone could afford to spend that much time learning such things at a gambling establishment without going broke first. Joe: how did you come by your past and present knowledge? I once went to the track 528 straight nights without missing. It's really just like learning anything else. I've seen a lot of races and I've read about everything I could get my hands on. I know my way around a racehorse. At one time I owned, I think, 21 horses. Still, there are guys I see and I've seen at the track for 30 years- I'd even call some of them friends- and they don't know what the fuck they're watching and they have no idea how to bet. Here's something that's very difficult for guys to get their head around. I never try to pick the winner of a race. I just try to evaluate the chances of the horses. If there is a horse with odds out of whack with what I consider his chances, I bet. Sometimes I get beat by a horse that I thought had better chances, but who didn't have the right odds. But it works out over the long haul. As a kid I heard my stepfather say, "You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races". He had it absoultely backward. You can never be certain of the outcome of a particular race. But if you're a reasonable handicapper and you know how to manage your money and bet the overlays, you can beat the races. |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:11 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Q.Bovifs wrote: What is the best online source for the best real-time info, if there is one or if you can give it up? For thoroughbred racing and the Derby? I'd start with www.drf.com |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:36 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Q.Bovifs wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Q.Bovifs wrote: What is the best online source for the best real-time info, if there is one or if you can give it up? For thoroughbred racing and the Derby? I'd start with http://www.drf.com Thanks, Joe. I always wanted to try to get to know what the fuck was going on out there. Stick with one track when you start, go to Belmont, Churchill, Hollywood Park. They have higher purses which get better horses. Stay away from Beulah, Thistledowns,Delware and such that have 3,000 claimers. Start with stake races on the weekends watch them and get a feel about a horse class, beyer, trainers, jockeys and recent form. Good Luck and bet with your head not over it |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:45 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Q.Bovifs wrote: Serious question: how does one develop a talent for intelligently-following horse racing without going to the track at least once per week? Is it possible to just read blogs, etc? I was always fascinated with guys that knew "horses" and made money at the track, but I never got to finding out the how and why. I mean, when I was fresh out of HS My brother used to bartend at OTB, ad when I would go up there for some free drinks, the shit that some of the guys knew there - i.e. who was on what type of shots, etc., who took a shit that morning - I just found it incredible that anyone could afford to spend that much time learning such things at a gambling establishment without going broke first. Joe: how did you come by your past and present knowledge? I once went to the track 528 straight nights without missing. It's really just like learning anything else. I've seen a lot of races and I've read about everything I could get my hands on. I know my way around a racehorse. At one time I owned, I think, 21 horses. Still, there are guys I see and I've seen at the track for 30 years- I'd even call some of them friends- and they don't know what the fuck they're watching and they have no idea how to bet. Here's something that's very difficult for guys to get their head around. I never try to pick the winner of a race. I just try to evaluate the chances of the horses. If there is a horse with odds out of whack with what I consider his chances, I bet. Sometimes I get beat by a horse that I thought had better chances, but who didn't have the right odds. But it works out over the long haul. As a kid I heard my stepfather say, "You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races". He had it absoultely backward. You can never be certain of the outcome of a particular race. But if you're a reasonable handicapper and you know how to manage your money and bet the overlays, you can beat the races. Not quite 528 straight nights, but I did by Sportmans escalators ,pond and new tote board, Joe I fit into the don't know what I'm watching and have no idea hoe to bet |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:49 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Not quite 528 straight nights, but I did by Sportmans escalators ,pond and new tote board, Joe I fit into the don't know what I'm watching and have no idea hoe to bet Man, I miss Sportsman's! I drove past there on my way the the airport last month and I almost broke down weeping. That was the best track in the world when it was the old 5/8 layout. |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:54 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Not quite 528 straight nights, but I did by Sportmans escalators ,pond and new tote board, Joe I fit into the don't know what I'm watching and have no idea hoe to bet Man, I miss Sportsman's! I drove past there on my way the the airport last month and I almost broke down weeping. That was the best track in the world when it was the old 5/8 layout. Tarport Harp, Smokey Oaks, and Albatross winning on one wheel! Paisley, Farrington, Busse and Burright the Buglar, and the hot dog stand on Laramie ..that was living. Stormy sure fucked that up |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 11:59 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Not quite 528 straight nights, but I did by Sportmans escalators ,pond and new tote board, Joe I fit into the don't know what I'm watching and have no idea hoe to bet Man, I miss Sportsman's! I drove past there on my way the the airport last month and I almost broke down weeping. That was the best track in the world when it was the old 5/8 layout. Tarport Harp, Smokey Oaks, and Albatross winning on one wheel! Paisley, Farrington, Busse and Burright the Buglar, and the hot dog stand on Laramie ..that was living. Stormy sure fucked that up You're going too far back for me, Walt! How about Mr. Dalrae, Childewood Hanover, Pepper's Skipper, and Falcon Seelster? I don't think I ever saw Farrington drive anything other than Willie. And don't lose your last two bucks in the 3-card monte game before you hit the hot dog truck! |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2011 12:23 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
[ Man, I miss Sportsman's! I drove past there on my way the the airport last month and I almost broke down weeping. That was the best track in the world when it was the old 5/8 layout.[/quote] Tarport Harp, Smokey Oaks, and Albatross winning on one wheel! Paisley, Farrington, Busse and Burright the Buglar, and the hot dog stand on Laramie ..that was living. Stormy sure fucked that up [/quote] You're going too far back for me, Walt! How about Mr. Dalrae, Childewood Hanover, Pepper's Skipper, and Falcon Seelster? I don't think I ever saw Farrington drive anything other than Willie. And don't lose your last two bucks in the 3-card monte game before you hit the hot dog truck![/quote] Your right Joe I'm a crotchy ol' SOB, by those horses I had turned to donating my $$$$ to the Richard D retirement fund, but I remember doing several Saturday doubleheaders flats at Arlington ( a burger at the bar on the corner...the greaziest of all time and stepping on the horseshoes in the cement in the sidewalk) and then Sportmans until after midnight I remember more losses than wins , but I remember me an my Buds always had a great time |
Author: | bigfan [ Wed May 04, 2011 12:41 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
While at U of A, I lived next to a guy whose family owned horses and he taught me how to read a program and know what to look for. So many things. One example, is a heavier horse in a longer race, as that horse might have more strength. This is just an example of one of a million things....first time lasix, blinkers, on and on. Cheaper racer, 6F, just dead speed, quick starts. Then went to DePaul and headed to Sportsman, like twice a week and did OK for a couple of years, got a job and then did the OTB thing. |
Author: | Rod [ Wed May 04, 2011 1:35 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Are you strictly a thoroughbred guy, bigfan? |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu May 05, 2011 4:50 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Are you strictly a thoroughbred guy, bigfan? Yes, I mean I will bet on the chariots, but never saw them live and assume they are more like the dogs, leaders cash in as it is harder to move up and down. Assume guys get boxed in all the time. |
Author: | muhfug [ Thu May 05, 2011 6:14 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
I still like Nehro in an exacta/trifecta box. That 19 hole is going to be tough to win it from. He was still closing in his last two races at mile and a eighth. With the extra eighth of a mile, he might be there close. It all comes down to a "good trip" and a lot of luck. I am going to Arlington for the opener and I'll look at the program and bet it at Trackside tomorrow night. I'll probably throw 5 horses in a box with him and hope the odds cover the bet. Good luck! |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu May 05, 2011 6:44 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
muhfug wrote: I still like Nehro in an exacta/trifecta box. That 19 hole is going to be tough to win it from. He was still closing in his last two races at mile and a eighth. With the extra eighth of a mile, he might be there close. It all comes down to a "good trip" and a lot of luck. I am going to Arlington for the opener and I'll look at the program and bet it at Trackside tomorrow night. I'll probably throw 5 horses in a box with him and hope the odds cover the bet. Good luck! Shit I like him too |
Author: | reents [ Thu May 05, 2011 6:56 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
I would have thought Uncle Mo, but that horse could be scratched from the race. |
Author: | Rod [ Thu May 05, 2011 7:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
To me the three horses that look like they have the right make-up to win a twenty horse race right now are Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Nehro. Mucho Macho Man may be a little greener than the other two. Of course, there are probably quite a few colts in there that could win with a dream trip. I doubt Uncle Mo will go. |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu May 05, 2011 8:50 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Q.Bovifs wrote: Never knew that Ed Olczyk knew horses, but about 20 min ago on The Ex-Saloon, he gave a pretty good quick lesson on reading the derby program, and he liked No 12 & 13 (Sabatina? & Mucho Macho Man?) as good bets. santiva longshot the 12 & 13 horse Harry likes |
Author: | bigfan [ Thu May 05, 2011 9:32 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
David Kaplan Our ace handicapper Doug Nachman who successfully picked Giacomo at 57-1 a few Derby's ago is going with Decisive Moment with 6, 8, 11, 13, 18 in the Exactas. Good luck! |
Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 06, 2011 4:20 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Q.Bovifs wrote: Never knew that Ed Olczyk knew horses, but about 20 min ago on The Ex-Saloon, he gave a pretty good quick lesson on reading the derby program, and he liked No 12 & 13 (Sabatina? & Mucho Macho Man?) as good bets. Olczyk was in Vegas recently for the NHL Awards presentations and while in town, played a $166 ticket on the Pick-Six at Hollywood Park, which hit for $500,000. Olczyk has been a longtime horse bettor who did some guest handicapping for The Meadowlands harness simulcasts a few years ago, and his knowledge of racing and handicapping was immediately obvious Savy is a owner and big time bettor also. |
Author: | Rod [ Fri May 06, 2011 6:47 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Olczyk was in Vegas recently for the NHL Awards presentations and while in town, played a $166 ticket on the Pick-Six at Hollywood Park, which hit for $500,000. Olczyk has been a longtime horse bettor who did some guest handicapping for The Meadowlands harness simulcasts a few years ago, and his knowledge of racing and handicapping was immediately obvious Savy is a owner and big time bettor also. A lot of hockey guys are heavy into harness racing. Harness racing is a big deal in Canada. Serge Savard owns a nice horse named Malicious. Elisha Cuthbert's boyfriend is a hockey player with uncles who train down in Florida. I saw her in the winner's circle at Pompano a couple weeks ago. She didn't look much like the hot chick you see in the movies. |
Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 06, 2011 11:21 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Derby Talk -'11 |
The biggest thing that you learn over time whether harness or thoroughbred is how to tell the pace in a race...who's going to the front? how much pace pressure? How fast will they go? Can a deep closer make a move through it? Shit like that you pick up from watching races regularly. As for this Derby, I just printed off the form and will take a look. |
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