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| Dolphin, Beardown https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=6419 |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Dolphin, Beardown |
Any good bets for tonight or the weekend. I'm looking to put a 4-6 team parlay together and I'm looking for a couple more games to take. Any bets you like? |
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| Author: | Spinnin' Bucket [ Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Here’s a start. Do not do a 4-6 team parlay. If you have money to throw away, find a charity. |
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| Author: | Spinnin' Bucket [ Fri Aug 18, 2006 5:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
A quick follow up on parlays… Unless your book is offering special/promotional odds, the only parlay that is profitable is a 3-teamer. All others are basically ripoffs (2-teamer is close percentage-wise and a 5-teamer isn’t too bad, but the rest 4-12 are a joke when you do the math). The breakdown… A traditional 3-team parlay pays 6-1. So with a $100 wager, you end up with $700 if your play hits. Rolling over 3 separate bets would leave you with $695.79, making the 3-teamer a slightly better value. 100.00 @ -110 yields 190.91 190.91 @ -110 yields 364.46 364.46 @ -110 yields 695.79 |
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| Author: | Ozmodiar [ Fri Aug 18, 2006 5:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Bucket My ex-wife loves him. |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Thanks for the advice. Still trying to learn the ropes, any tips you can throw my way is much appreciated. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Ozmodiar wrote: Bucket
My ex-wife loves him. I thought it was Stink who had the woman problems. As for prognostications, I'm just going to stay out of it for a little while. I have been very suck lately. |
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| Author: | Spinnin' Bucket [ Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:46 am ] |
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Quote: Thanks for the advice. Still trying to learn the ropes, any tips you can throw my way is much appreciated.
Beard, I am in my mid to late 20's and spent most of my college dough on beer and pot, so I only have a few years of serious wagering under my belt. An older gent like Coast could probably share more horror stories, but here is what I can offer you: 1). There is no such thing as a sure thing. Over the long haul, you will find the difference between the plays you love and the plays you like to be suprisingly minimal. The smartest way to bet is to spread your plays around. There is nothing quite as frustrating as setting aside 7 games, deciding you really love 2 of them, and then the 2 you love miss while the others you didn't play wind up 4 out of 5. I work for a living and wager on the side, so what follows does not necessarily apply to me, but professional gamblers typically wager about 1% of their bankroll on a game. Loading up on a single contest is the easiest way to get kicked right in the sac. Keep your wagers small and steady, live to bet another day. 2). Do not chase losses. This is the second easiest way to get kicked in the sac. Plan your plays in advance. If on Sunday morning, you felt that the Sunday night game was a "pass", why do you suddenly feel as though you have a handle on that game after a losing afternoon? The answer is: you don't. If you play it, you're chasing. I typically set lines for sports like basketball and baseball 2-3 days in advance. For football, I know what my lines are before they are released for the following week. Then I compare them side by side with what the book is offering. You should not wait to see what the lines are, and then decide if the spread scares you off or if you think it will be covered. Have your own price in mind before browsing the menu. 3). Do not get cute when you are ahead. Playing with house money can be fun, but getting aggressive just because you had a good weekend is a surefire way to piss it right back. Remember this, when you repeatedly bet aggressively, you are essentially turning all of your plays into one big parlay. Hot streaks are terrific, but eventually you are going to lose, so if you keep rolling your money over, sooner or later it's going to be gone. You should establish some guidelines for money management. Let's say losing $300 over the course of a month is about all you can stand. Then you should probably be laying no more than $25 a game. Strong bettors push for 60%, but in the long haul, shit happens. If you flip a quarter 100 times, chances are you will get heads somewhere between 47-53 times. However, during that 100 flips, it is highly likely that you will turn up tails 7 out of 9 times at some point. Think of your bets this way. You may be a successful handicapper, but at some point you're going to catch your dick in your zipper. If you're laying heavy bets consistently, a bad weekend can easily wipe out an entire paycheck. 4). Look for value in key numbers. In football, certain spreads are meaningless. Teams rarely win a football game by 5 points. Totals rarely ever land on 32. Be aware of these things. Laying -2.5 is smart. Playing +2.5 is retarded. In baseball, run lines can be profitable. Betting the Yankees at home against the Royals might cost you -300. Betting the Yankees -1.5 might only cost you -150. That's twice the payout for a marginal risk. The percentage of baseball games decided by 1 run is approximately 25%. If you feel the Yankees should spank the Royals, you're getting much better value on the run line. --------------------------- This is just the tip of the iceberg, but if I could only tell you 4 things, these would be the big 4. You're not a genius when you're hot, you're not a moron when you're cold. It's just part of the cycle, and tweaking your bets to manipulate your way through the cycle is highly, highly discouraged. Keep your plays steady. Play a portion of your bankroll, not a chunk of it. Look for value when you see it, and leave emotion out of it. It's not personal, it's business. |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
I'll take every word to heart. Unfortunately unlike many young people I know, I want to bet smart and bet low. I have too many old buddies taking money they don't have and putting it on bad bets. Thanks for the advice and I'll check that book out, putting $35 down seems a much better bet than playing the White Sox tonight. |
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