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| This Week's Technical Angle of Interest https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=6582 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | This Week's Technical Angle of Interest |
Most people are "fundamental" handicappers, meaning that they pick winners primarily based on football factors. Some use "situational" factors, such as scheduling, time zones, look ahead, etc. as an additional factor. And some use "technical" factors, such as trends and angles, as a factor. I don't ascribe much significance to most technical factors, but I do find them interesting at times. Each week, I'm going to throw out an interesting technical angle that might just merit some consideration. This week's Technical Angle: Beware The Hype Since 2002, in the first game of the year teams that were ranked in the Top 5 of the preseason AP Poll are 0-7 Against The Spread when playing a team that is unranked. The logic for this angle is that highly ranked teams are over-valued in the lines at the beginning of the season. Linesmakers set artificially high lines on these teams because they know that many bettors buy into the hype of highly-ranked teams and will bet those teams...even at inflated prices. (Favorites generally are often over-priced, but that discussion is for another day). This week, this angle applies to Georgia Tech (vs. Notre Dame), Northern Illinois (vs. Ohio State), Washington State (vs. Auburn) and Marshall (vs. West Virginia). It's not a coincidence that the early "smart" money in these four games has all come in on the unranked underdogs. |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
What about Texas vs. N. Texas at 41? Is that inflated or is that generally a typical number for a N. Texas team that is completely outmatched? |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Good catch, Beard. #3 Texas is also playing this weekend. North Texas does fit this angle. You are right that Texas totally out-matches NT. The question on this cover might become how long the Longhorns' 1st and 2nd teams play in this game. This is just one man's opinion, but by my power ratings, Notre Dame and Texas are slightly over-priced. By my numbers, the other three are not over-priced, but history (reflected in this angle) suggests they might be. My Power Ratings make the lines for these games: #1 Ohio State -17 #2 Notre Dame -5 #3 Texas -38 #4 Auburn -16 #5 West Virginia -22 |
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