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| First NFL game of the season https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=6672 |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | First NFL game of the season |
Steelers -1 O/U 34 1/2 Any thoughts? Personally I like Miami +1 and the over. Culpepper is going to put on a show. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:53 pm ] |
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I find it interesting that this line moved 2.5-3 points, ostensibly because of Roethlisberger being out. IMO NO player in the NFL is worth 3 points to a line. Conventional wisdom is that Miami is the play -- perhaps because of the injury, because Miami is a popular team going into the season, or because of the "jinx" on betting on Super Bowl champs the following year. Yet with the line move and all the love I'm hearing from many sides about Miami, the betting spread right now is 52% Miami and 48% Pittsburgh on 47k bets. That's pretty balanced action, yet the line has moved three points....perchance to "trap" as much Miami money as possible? Nah, I won't go there this early in the season and start suggesting that the books are taking sides on this one, but I do find it interesting to see such 3 point move without significant action on one side. By the way, if you are interested in getting free updates on line moves and % of action on each side of a game (college and pro), check out sportsinsights.com. You can sign up for a basic membership (free), which gives you the ability to log in and see the betting percentages on all games. There are several of the big offshore books that contribute their data to this system. It's valuable information at times. For example, if I see over 75a% of the public on one side of a game without a corresponding line move, I get real interested in the other side because that's the side the books are clearly backing. And, for example, if there is a significant line move, but no one-sided action (like this game), I also get interested. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
The past 6 super bowl champs won their first game the following year.... |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I still think Charlie Batch is one of the worst backups in the league and would go with the Fins +1. I'd also go a bit contrarian and go with the over. |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Steelers 18, Dolphins 17 Give me the over and THE PUSH. And yes, I'd rather be the smartass than the dumbass. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Hawkeye Vince wrote: I still think Charlie Batch is one of the worst backups in the league and would go with the Fins +1. I'd also go a bit contrarian and go with the over.
dropped my juice! |
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