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Ahead & Behind The Spread
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Author:  Coast2Coast [ Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:51 am ]
Post subject:  Ahead & Behind The Spread
Teams that consistently beat the spread could be called "undervalued", while teams that consistently fail to cover could be called "overvalued". One tool to identify these teams is by ranking them according to their performance "Away from the Spread" or "AFS". The number of points a team beats the spread, or fails to cover by, is their "AFS". After two weeks, several teams have covered twice by significant margins. And some have failed to cover twice by significant margins.

Here are the top ten and bottom ten AFS teams that have played two games and have beaten, or failed to cover. in both games (using closing lines). It might be a little early to use this data in a significant way, but it is the first indication of which teams might be the "hot" and "cold" spread teams this season.


AFS Top Ten
LSU.............36
Rutgers.......32.5
Pittsburgh....32
Louisville.....31
Rice............30.5
Oregon........30
Flor. Intl.......28
Wyoming.....27.5
Florida.........26.5
San Jose St..25

AFS Bottom Ten
Arkansas............. -37.5
Northern Ill.......... -37
Florida Atlantic..... -36
Stanford.............. -36
UL Lafayette........ -32
Temple............... -31
Arizona.............. -28.5
SMU.................. -28
Virginia............. -28
Bowling Green.... -24.5
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