This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. A prize valued at over $100 will be given to the person with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to qualify for the prize.

Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

Current Standings

Player.............................This Week......................Overall.......................%

BD..................................1-0...............................1-0...........................100
Rocks and Blows...............3-1...............................3-1............................75
Hawkeye Vince.................4-2...............................5-2............................71
donspiracy.......................3-1...............................4-4............................50
Matt Murton’s Beard..........2-2...............................4-4............................50
Doug...............................2-0...............................2-2............................50
Coast..............................5-5...............................6-6........................... 50
Bud Dude........................3-4...............................3-4............................43
Good dolphin....................1-2...............................2-3............................40
reents.............................2-4...............................3-5............................38
the gooch........................1-2...............................1-2............................33
sabu...............................1-2...............................1-2............................33

Week 3 Send Your Covered Wagon West To The Ocean And North Of .500

Oklahoma +4.5 at Oregon (50 1/2)

The Land Stealers hang, but fall short late in Duck territory.
Ugly people and ugly jerseys make for lots of points. Over in overtime?
Oklahoma 24 Oregon 27

Nebraska +18 at USC (57 1/2)

The Bug Eaters are amazed by all the trees in them thar hills and still lose by less than three touchdowns.
Multiple garbage time TD's gives Sooner players something to tell their grandkins(yes, that's an inbreeding swipe) for the over.
Nebraska 21 USC 38

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CSFMB: Home of the small minded

Tampa + 5 1/2 against Atlanta. Tampa is not as bad as they looked last week. Atlanta is not as good as they looked last week. Tampa has always given Vick all he can handle.

Let's try it again this week.

Syracuse +3 over Illinois- I like the way Syracuse played against Iowa last week, even though against the backup and as bad as the Illini looked last week, Syracuse is ready for a win.

Florida -3.5 over Tennesee- I think this is the big game Chris Leak wins for the Gators and they should have won at Tennesee 2 years ago.

Colorado +10.5 against Arizona State- I feel the Buffaloes at home will give the Sun Devils all they can handle and could win the game straigt up.

Saints -2 over Packers- A big game for the Saints and a winnable game and as bad as the Packers looked last week, the Pack will score this week, but not enough as the Saints win by 6.

Cardinals+7 versus Seahawks- The Seahawks offense struggled last week and all the Cardinals did was score last week so look for Cardinals if not win, keep the game close.

Good Luck To Everybody This Week!!!

Carolina -1 @ Minnesota
A couple of principles I have in betting the NFL come into play here: 1) Look for line value and 2) Don't over-react to one week. Many bettors remember the last game and carry over the implications into the next game...they too often wrongly assume that the way a team matched up and played one week will be the same the next. That often does not happen in the NFL. One week ago, most prognosticators would have expected Carolina to be one of the favorites to be back in the NFC title game. I do too. I'm not going to back down from that belief after the first week, just as I didn't back down from the same belief last year after an opening week loss to Nawlins. Carolina was completely dominated by the Falcons last week, allowing 252 yards rushing. And offensively, they also were quite lame for most of the game. I'm not going to suddenly believe the "real" Carolina is that team of last Sunday. This is a new week with interesting dynamics, including the return of their playmaker, Steve Smith. Minny is feeling awfully good about itself. Carolina is not. By my power ratings, had the chalk prevailed in both of their games last weekend, Carolina would have been -3 here. They're not because of those games. Too early to change NFL power ratings based on just one game. I'll take the value as I find it in a bounce-back situation and needing the "better team" only to win the game.

SD State +14 @ Wisconsin
I said before the season started, I thought SDS would be an improved team under new Coach Chuck Long. Here is a good spot to prove it. I am expecting this to be a down year for Wisconsin, and the first two games have proven nothing. A win over a bad Bowling Green team that was playing without its top QB, and a win over Woodridge Ryan's Leathernecks don't do much to impress me. The Aztecs have had a week off to learn from the tough loss to UTEP, and Wisky coach Bielema's defensive approach should be no secret to Long...who coached with Bielema at Iowa. SDS will have a new QB in this one and it's a bit dicey to take a new QB in his first road start. But Moughey did play in the UTEP game and he was 12/16 in that one. He also is a good scrambler and I don't see this Wisconsin team as being blessed with much speed on the defensive side to counter a scrambling QB. Moreover, the Badgers offense is lacking the kind of offensive playmakers at any of the skill positions, or an overpowering offensive line. One of those factors is usually needed to dominate a team so badly they cover a 2-TD nut.

Miami Hurricanes +4 @ Louisville
Here is another game in which the line appears to be an over-reaction to previous events. Louisville has blown out two bad teams, while Miami was shut down by one of the top defenses in America, Florida State. And for that, Louie is more than a FG favorite here? I don't see it. It's hard to see this Louie team being better than last year's, now that RB Bush is out. And while Miami is hampered by a poor coach in Coker, some questionable play-calling, and not quite as many offensive weapons as in past years...the Canes still have speed. And lots of it. It was telling to me that a bad Kentucky team put 20+ on Louisville. Sorry, but real top ten teams don't give up 20+ to Kentucky. With an extra week to prepare and fix what's ailing the Canes' offense, I look for a much better performance against a Louie D that is significantly below that of the FSU D that Miami faced two weeks ago.

Green Bay - New Orleans OVER 38
Both of these teams have serious defensive issues, but both have veteran QBs and skill position players who can make plays. Didn't see it last week out of GB, but the quality of defenses they faced last week and this week are very different. This week's opponent, the Saints, have perhaps the worst set of linebackers in the league. GB's opponent last week, Chicago, has the best. Look for Favre to make plays this week. And Ahman Green should have a big day against a soft Saints front 7. GB's secondary also has issues. If Rex Grossman can find openings in the Packers secondary, Drew Brees surely will also.

W VIRGINIA -17.0 over MARYLAND

Maryland's offense has looked brutal against some weak competition and have lost the ball control battle. WV offense has looked great and they will be able to control the ball with a dominant rushing attack.

West Virginia -17
WVU at home against a MD team who could barely get points up on the board against Middle Tenn. St. and came fairly close to letting William and Mary beat them at home. WVU has come out and rolled its first two opponents and I don't see a sub-par Terrapin team stopping this trend.


WVA/MD Under 48 1/2
MD can't score and WVU doesn't give up points. My only concern is if WVU puts up 50 points alone in this game.


Michigan St. +2 1/2
Michigan St. after stumbling out the gates against Idaho roll into Heinz Field and make a statement to Wanny and the Big East. I think a strong Pitt defense is going to shut down Javon Ringer and the Spartan running attack, which means this game, rests in the hands of Stanton. Staton is going to have a solid game throwing 3 TD's and 1 int, in the end the Stanton to Tranner combination will be too much. MSU by 6.

Rams -3
St. Louis is set to have a reemergence in the NFC west this year. Bulger is healthy Stephen Jackson is a horse and Holt and Bruce are still viable threats at the corners. St. Louis D had three picks (I know Jake Plummer sucks ass) and looked solid last Sunday. They will give the same rude treatment to Alex Smith and co. The Rams take this by a touchdown (Only this close because Vernon Davis catches a touchdown pass late.)

alright....
here we go again....anyone noticing a trend here?

ND -5
Is Georgia Tech that good or is Penn State that bad? The ND vs. MI battle continues with a nailbiter.....ND scores a late TD to beat the spread.

Bears -8.5
This could be a bit of a sucker bet. I suspect the Bears D doesn't follow the shutout with another, but I don't see the Lions scoring any touchdowns.
Bears win by 9.

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@audioidkid

Maryland +17 @ West Virginia
Didn't plan to do this, and I know several guys that just LOVE West Virginia in this one. But the betting on this game is just too one-sided. Last year in this game, Maryland was a 3.5 point favorite at home. Last year's game was 7-6 into the 4th quarter and WVU ended up having a mere 50 yard edge in total offense. Are you telling me that these teams have separated themselves by 20 points (and a corresponding few hundred yars of offense) in one year? Of course West Virginia is the better team, has greater team speed and demolishes opponents with their running game. And yes, Maryland so far has struggled against two teams that won't be on anyone's top 50 (though MTSU just might win the Sun Belt). But this one is about matchups. These teams aren't all that much different than they were a year ago. The Terps defense isn't THAT out-manned here. And the Terps offense, while not possessing the explosive speed of Slaton, should put up a few scores themselves. When this number got to 17, it became an "overlay". And I'm right there to take the generous points.

Doug...if the ND line keeps moving down with all the Michigan love, and I can find a 4 or a 3.5 by game time, I might just buy it down to 3 and take the Irish. It's in tempting territory now at 4.5 at some places. I make the line 9, so I didn't see much value either way at 7...but do at the lower numbers. Several popular touts are creating a bandwagon effect on Michigan this week by saying they love the Wolverines. Weiss vs. Carr is worth 2 points to ND and home field is worth 3.5-4, so at -5, the line says Michigan is the better team. I don't buy it. Michigan is the better D, but not sure the margin is as great as some think it is. And while Hart is a nice back, the UM passing offense isn't in ND's class. And yes...Penn State may be that bad. Look for them to get an absolute mauling next week in Columbus in a revenge situation for the Buckeyes.

I just checked this week's "Pinnacle Pulse" that details what people are betting. Here is what they say about this game: "In one of the most heavily bet college games, all the money has been on the Wolverines. We opened the Fighting Irish as 7.5-point favorites, but the public favored Michigan by a three-to-one ratio. To this point the sharps have been curiously absent on this game."

If they're like me, they're just waiting to see just how much Joe Public bettor wants to play Michigan. Look for a reversal Saturday morning. Friday night might be the best time to buy ND. There is still a lot of ND money out there waiting to be played.

Jeez Coast......I just like the helmets.

i buy what you're selling.....

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@audioidkid

Baltimore -11 1/2 basically Baltimore looked like one pf the best teams in the NFL on Sunday and Oakland looked like one of the worst I see atleast a two touchdown victory by Baltimore

New Orleans -2 Again Green Bay is probably the worst team in the NFL, Favre looks old and the saints should win this game by touchdown

BYU @ BC under 51 1/2, after watching BC last week, it looks like they have a defense gets the job done, I cannot see either of these teams scoring 25 points. BC likes to control the football and pund the run and with that defense its going to be a low scoring affair.

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"Do work, son" -Big Black

I dont feel to confident in any of my picks this week so I'm depending alot on trends, here are the rest...

Louisville (-4.5)
Miami has a good D, but no way they slow down Louisville and their 650 YPG attack. Louisville is 11-1 in home games as favirotes.

New England (-5.5)
No way the Jets play as well as they did last week. Patriot defense will cause havoc and Pennington will turn the ball over and look for Brady to have a big game. Jets are 11-18-3 ATS in last 32 as underdogs

Seattle (-7)
Alexander will get going against a bad Cardinal defense and Arizona will have a tough time getting in the end zone aginst a improved defense.Seattle is 8-2 ATS last 10 home games while Arizona is 8-21 ATS last 29 road games.

STL vs. SF Under (43.5)
This is the only game I'm going off my gut. St.Louis will get the ball in the end zone this week and they look to have a good running attck. SF is improved but STL defense is much better then Arizonas. SF will move the ball but turnovers will cost them in the end.

ouch call me mr 1-3 (2-6 off of week one sans justification)

still not ready to go nuts, but try these on. First off my apoligies to anyone who liked Iowa, Without Tate I got off that pick like a El car with a rotting corpse in it and prayed that you did likewise. The friggin clowns that did that game talked about what a great job Iowa QB Manson did, to quote the great Lee Elia "My F#$%King A#$!!!"

Miss +3' at Kentucky

The question you have to ask yourself is what kind of makeup does Miss. have here. I look for Miss JR- QB Brett Shaeffer Jr. to bounce back on this road game. I look for Kentucky to be a bit cocky coming off of their trouncing of paltry Texas State. Miss. on the other hand looks to reestablish respect following the ass reaming that Missou gave them. Miss. and the points, Ill take em. Rebs are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS v. Ky in the series since '91. I look for Ms. to roll out the O and have their D keep it close, so much so that I think the hook may come into play with the +3'. Ms returns 5 on O and 5 on D, Kentucky returns 9 O starters and 7 on D. This is a more ballsy play than Id like, but I think MS looks to come out firing, Miss has the better Offense, Ky the better Defense. In honor of a cover, have yourself a Shaeffer beer (ok bad pun there) if Miss makes it.


Boise State -7 @ Wyoming.

Proof positive that the NFL opening night shellacking delivered by the boys from the Smurf Turf was no fluke here kids. Lets see (Wyoming, spanked Utah State and lost a close one to Va.) Boise State pasted Oregon State and walked all over Sacramento State) Boise is 12-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last 4 years. Boise returns 9 on O and 9 on D, that is a deep deep well of experience from one team that has dominated the WAC cranking off a perfect 24-0 from 2002 to 2004 (quick what is the difference between the WAC and the mountain west....if you guessed money, youre right) . Boise St QB-Zabransky, Zabransky, Zabransky and the Wyoming boys sing "Lord Have Mercy". If this rolls off at -7, load the shotgun with rocksalt and get ready to enjoy the scratch. Wyoming returns 6 on O and 6 on D, from a team that went 4-7 in the 05 campaign. The home team is 0-2 ATS in the last time these 2 teams met (02 and 03). A stat to the contrary is that Wyoming is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog and has chimed in for 5 outright upset winners. Just the same, Boise has too much class here and Wyoming failed to cover their last 4 in a row in 05. Asking a bit too much from Wy QB Doss in this one. Boise by 20+ in a laugher.


Ohio +15' @ Rutgers
Do you smell something??? its not the smell of leaves burning, its the smell of a line too high because a team from New Jersey danced on the faces of my alma mater lowly Illinois (much in the same way my face got danced on in Kams one night by Denver Broncos Fullback and Illini TD record holder Howard Griffith, but that is a story for another time and place)
Northern Illinois is not that bad of a team, I know it is hard to be taken seriously when you say something like that, but that is a team with heart and talent. That NIU team is also one that got walked by 12 against Ohio who scored 3 second half TDs to NIUs one second half TD. Ohio walked NIU in the second half and turned the ball over 2 times to NIUs 0. With that in mind, take a look at the recent Scarlet Knight love out there. I think Rutgers wins this game, but by 2 Tuddys and a Field Goal, I dont think so. Rutgers has some wins to hang their hats on (NC and a crushing of Illinois). The grim spectre of the famed backdoor cover also lives in the weeds here and peers into your bathroom window. Id much rather be outside the windows than the guy in the bathroom.
Ohio returns 9 on O and 9 on D. The stats say no go here with Ohio being 2-7 ATS and SU versus non conference teams, but I think Ohio has the juice to not get rolled by 16 plus. Ohio has a great LB corps and does return 14 of their top 17 tacklers.
The Scarlet Knight returns 7 on O and 7 on D. New starting RB and QB for Rutgers too, but they appear to be doing OK. QB Teel and RB Rice should win it for Rutgers, but a scrappy scappy wildcat from Ohio keeps it close and gets you that kwan.

Auburn -3-1/2 vs. LSU
The LSU team bus stopped to look at the Gulf of Mexico last night on the way to their game today at the prettiest little village on the Plains. One LSU guy said to another, "theys a lotta watah theyah". The other one replied "yeah and wez only seein the top of it." Auburn Tigers may not have the deep insight of LSU Tigers, but I think they have a better running game, better defense and are playing at home.

Oklahoma +4-1/2 @ Oregon
The Ducks might be flying, but the Sooners will grab more land. Underdogs that outrush their favored opponents are a 75% play against the spread. I think Adrian Peterson outrushes the Ducks today. And in a contest matching Stoops vs. Bellotti, I will take Stoops.

Ohio St -29.5 over Cincy

I dont think Ohio St will have much of a letdown today against this Cincy team. I see Ohio St scoring 40+ today and I cant see Cincy reaching double digits. I see a 45-9 final in this one.

Ohio St/Cincinnati OVER 46.0 - I often get burnt by picking the OVER in games like these, especially when Ohio St. is involved because under Tressel, they usually build a nice 28-3 type lead, and then coast the rest of the way, leaving me about 4 or 5 points under what should have been an easy over had the Buckeyes not shut down their offense, and play the clock game.

The reasoning for my OVER pick is fairly simple today - Having so many good offensive players on one side of the ball - Smith, Pittman, Ginn, Gonzalez, etc. - always give me the opportunity to get that 46 by themselves. Cincinnati doesn't really to do much to push this game beyond the 46.0 points, and hopefully they won't have too because their offense isn't good.

FSU -4.5 VS. Clemson
Coimng off that horrible game vs Troy, I think FSU will be ready tonight in the Bowden Bowl. The Troy game was a blunder but they ended up winning and this will be a coming out party for several FSU players who have still not shown up this season. The Seminoles have not had much offense this season and they are averaging only 278.5 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play. he Florida State defense is quite possibly the best in the Country and they are allowing only 214.5 total yards per game on a miniscule 3.7 yards per play this season. The Tigers have had tons of success rushing the ball this season as they average 173.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry but they will run into a brick wall called the Seminoles Run Defense that is allowing 13.0 rushing yards per game this season on 0.7 yards per carry... I see FSU rolling big time in this game...I think Weatherford and FSU get the offense going tonight against Clemson, and this game won't be close.

Miami +4
Finally, that Miami/Louisville game is a tough one to call, but it should be a hell of game...Louisville lost their stud RB Bush with the broken leg, but they still have the high powered offense, and are a 4 point favorite today. Miami's Coach Coker has to be playing for his job this season given that the heat is starting to build on him, and they lost to FSU already - everything is pointing at Louisville, but something is telling me to go with Miami here...Louisville hasn't played well against ranked team, Miami is 8-2 on the road vs. ranked teams under Coker, and Louisville has NEVER beaten Miami..

A side and total for Saturday night...

Nebraska +17-1/2 @ USC & Under 55-1/2
What did we learn from the USC game vs. Arkansas? That the Hogs folded like a deck of cards and had more turnovers than Pepperidge Farm. Nebraska has class athletes, particularly on defense. I think they hang around a long time because their defense holds USC in the 20s or below. Thus, I also like the under.

Big fat 0-3 for me....

0-1 so far....i picked the wrong helmet. oops...
hopefully the bears can keep me even overall....

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@audioidkid

Chicago -7.5 over Detroit

Roy Williams predicts Lions will win this week. So What. Isnt that what you should thing going into a game anyway? I see a Bears D going against an offense putting in a new system in their first road game. I think the Bears D and special teams will set the O up in decent field position a few times today which will be enough for a few scores. Could we see a 2nd straight shutout today?

Arizona +7 over Seattle

Last few years the loser in the SB has had some problems early the next year ATS. I think AZ getting 7 is a good deal with the offense that they have.

Denver -10.5 over KC

Even if Trent Green could play today I would be all over the Broncos. Host is 8-1 ATS in this series and Denver is 8-1 ATS in divison home openers. Kansas City showed last week they are gonna have some early problems this year and I cant see them staying within 2 TD's in Denver today.

Washington +7 @ Dallas
Both these teams have defenses that are ahead of their offenses. When this line hit 7 today, taking the points in this low-scoring defensive tussle became a play for me.

At this point Hawkeye Vince is taking the weekend off. Having been out of town for a few days cost me a chance at having Iowa State +14 and Michigan + the points yesterday. I may get back in tomorrow night.

Monday Night 7 pt. Teaser:
Jax +10 and OVER 30
Steelers offense is solid and Jax appears to have a bit more playbook for Leftwich to operate than last year. I like Jax in this game a lot as they showed me quite a bit on both sides of the ball beating Dallas last week. Pitt's O will be a tougher challenge than Dallas though. So rather than playing Jax and the over, I'll tease both sides.

I'm really mad I didn't make a play at this before the weekend, but was too lazy to type all my picks and reasons why.

I'm going to take Jacksonville + 10 in this one. Hell, I have the Jags winning this game anyway. Its at home and their defense did a nice job containg the Cowboys through out the game. Fred Taylor looks to be in great shape and Leftwich had no problems last week spreading the ball out. I like the Jags in this one, 20-13.

I'm confused. I thought the line is Steelers -3 in this game? Where are you getting +10?

Uhh, I don't know. I thought Coast posted the line at Jax +10. If it's Steelers -3 I'm not going to play it.

I didn't see C2C's post, but he took a teaser last week, so he might be doing that again.

Thanks HV, here is his post. Does this mean we can play the Jags at +10 tonight?
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