Good call on the over Coast - too bad you didnt come back in to bet it.
24-20 State right now with about 10 mins left.
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| Pick The Winners: College & NFL Week 5 https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=7097 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Pick The Winners: College & NFL Week 5 |
This weekly football wagering contest is open to all. You can join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick. A prize valued at over $100 will be given to the person with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to qualify for the prize. Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com. This past week, the board went 33-24 for 58%. Nice job. Player.........................This Week....................Overall.......................% Rocks and Blows...............0-0..........................10-3-1.....................77 Hawkeye Vince.................3-2..........................10-5........................67 Chus...............................6-1...........................6-4.........................60 the gooch........................3-0..........................7-5..........................58 sabu...............................2-0..........................6-5-1.......................55 Coast..............................4-4..........................20-19-3...................51 Bud Dude........................3-3..........................11-11......................50 Matt Murton’s Beard..........2-4..........................10-12......................45 Doug...............................0-0.........................3-4-1........................43 reents..............................4-2.........................11-15.......................42 donspiracy......................2-2..........................8-11-1......................42 BD..................................1-0.........................2-3...........................40 Good dolphin...................0-0.........................2-3...........................40 Woodridge Ryan...............1-2.........................1-2...........................33 Mitch Cumstein.................2-4.........................2-4..........................33 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
If the Fudge-Packers didn't piss that game away in the 4th quarter last night, i would have ran the table. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Indianapolis -18 I hate laying this many points, but Tennessee is just awful. Vince Young is only making his second start and now they are without maybe their best defensive player St. Louis -3 Green Bay is brutal. Favre is dinged up and the Rams have a balanced offense which will score points. Kansas City -3 Leinart's first start will be a rough one against an improving KC defense. Larry Johnson will run at will and this one won't be close. |
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| Author: | reents [ Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | wagers |
Syracuse +7 vs Pittsburgh- I like the way Syracuse is playing right now and Pitt hasn't been a knockout team this year. Clemson -16.5 vs Wake Forest- Clemson is on it's way to the ACC title game and Wake is the worst of the undefeateds. LSU-1 vs Florida- I think LSU is still down that they lost to Auburn and their next big game is Florida. Florida has struggled on offense a little the last couple of weeks. Georgia +2.5 vs Tennesee- I know Georgia doesn't have much of an offense, but they make up for it on defense. They will just score enough to take down the Volunteers. Redskins +4.5 vs Giants- The Redskins are finally starting to take off and the Giants are having internal problems, so the Redskins should keep it close enough. Rams +3 vs Packers- The Packers look really bad and I know the Rams lost on the road to the 49ers in week 2, but are ready to make their run and show people their ready for a playoff run. Eagles -1 vs Cowboys- The Eagles D will stop the Cowboys O and a certain receer they want to hit harder than any receiver than ever before and Mcnabb will want this win more than any other. Broncos and Ravens under 33- A low number, but with these 2 defenses this should be a field goal game. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:47 pm ] |
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Michigan -15 vs. Michigan State The annual “bet against Michigan State” party has begun. It actually began last week after the horrible loss to Notre Dame, but I could not bring myself to bet a Ron Zook-coached team with found money, let alone my own. Now, after MSU lost to 26 point dog Illinois, at home, this team is an emotional wreck. We’ve seen this pattern before. MSU loses a game it should have won and the kids simply can’t overcome the emotional burden. Many teams have a one or two week period in which their play declines from what some call the “bubble burst theory”. In Michigan State’s case, they are hearing and reading daily about how their coaches should be fired and how they are chokers. How do 19 and 20 year old kids get their heads together in a situation like that....especially when their coaching staff looks clueless about motivating them. And it won’t help matters any that MSU QB Stanton, their best RB Ringer and their LG Zinn (3-year starter) were all injured last week. With Stanton and Ringer not at 100%, the MSU task becomes even more difficult. Oh yeah...by the way, this week the emotional wreck that is MSU has to visit their biggest rival, Michigan, which happens to be a pretty outstanding team on both sides of the ball. Fundamentally, MSU has serious defensive issues, particularly in the secondary. Michigan has just the playmakers at QB and WR to capitalize. Against a demoralized (and not very good) Michigan State defense, UM might just go for 40 or more here. The Michigan defense is one of top units in the country and MSU won’t cover this nut unless they score at least in the 20s, if not the 30s. Hard to see that happening against this Michigan defense. The fundamentals and situation both point to a Big Blue Blowout. Maryland +14 vs. Georgia Tech I had GT last week in its outright upset win over Virginia Tech. It was a good spot to go against what I thought was an overvalued VT team. Now I think this is a good spot to go against a GT team that has a history of flat performances after nice wins. During Coach Chan Gailey’s 4+ years, the Wreck are just 4-10 ATS in ACC conference games following straight up conference wins. Last year, GT upset Auburn and Miami on the road, then failed to cover each the following weeks. The year before, GT upset Clemson, Maryland and NC State on the road, and failed to cover in two of the three games following those upsets. This is also a big emotional game for Maryland, as Terps Coach Friedgen used to be the offensive coordinator for GT. The Terps look like a team that might just play to the level of their competition. They have looked uninmpressive against mediocre opponents like Middle Tenn. State and Florida International. They were 17 pt. dogs to West Virginia on the road. Early turnovers and big plays did them in and they got down big early. Five turnovers prevented them from coming back and making a game of it. However, the score was more lopsided than the game actually was. The total offense in that game was 383-323, far closer than the 21 pt. final margin of the game. The Terps have an extra week to prepare for this one and this looks like a good situational spot to catch GT still basking in the afterglow of their big upset win last week. Oklahoma +4 vs. Texas Three reasons for this play: 1) How good is Texas? Do we really know? Texas has played one meaningful, competitive game this year against a Top 20 team. It was blown out by Ohio State at home. UT has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but I have questions about how good that talent really is after the way Ohio State rolled through the UT defense and stifled the UT offense. 2) Oklahoma has the best running back in the nation in Adrian Peterson. I love backing underdogs with the better running game. Texas has a nice running game too, but I expect Peterson to carry the ball 30+ times in this one for 150+ yards. That will be sufficient to control time of possession and keep the Texas defense on the field. 3) Coaching. In a big game, I’ll take Bob Stoops over Mac Brown. With the exception of last year, Stoops has owned Brown in this matchup. Last year was an exception and other factors masked the significant coaching advantage for OU. Last year, Texas was a veteran team and OU was a young team. And Texas had a very special player in Vince Young. No Vince for UT this year and the teams are comparable in experience on both sides of the ball. Now, to be fair, Texas does have the better defense. The OU defense has been a bit shoddy tackling in a few games. But is this advantage for Texas enough to overcome the advantages that OU has? I don’t think so. California -5 vs. Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator Gary Crowton brings his family of 40 along with him to the Bay Area for this one, along with his usual tricked-up offense. The problem is, the Ducks will face the best defense they’ve seen all year. Both offenses have QBs who have thrown for over 65% completions and both have very good RBs. The difference is the Cal defense. The Bears D gave up a few long pass plays in the Tennessee game, but both were on plays where a freshman cornerback was left on an island in man coverage. Cal has done a better job lately of providing safety help to their corners. They did a very good job of holding down a decent ASU offense. Oregon will be a good test for them, but I think Oregon has more questions on D than does Cal. Having the better defense and home field advantage in a revenge situation are more than enough to justify a small lay like this. New Mexico State-Idaho OVER 59 I’m going back to the well with the New Mexico State Aggies for an over. NMS may be the nation’s best over team, at least when they’re not playing a top defensive team. As was the case last week, I think this total ought to be in the mid to high 60s. So I’ll take the value. NMS leads the nation in passing offense and total offense. The NMS defense, on the other hand, is one of the nation’s worst, finishing 118 out of 119 teams in total D last year. Last week, I took the Aggies-UTEP game over and was not disappointed, as the teams combined for over 1100 yards of offense and 72 points. NMS threw for over 500 yds. last week and gave up over 500 yards to UTEP. Idaho may not be quite as prolific offensively as UTEP, and runs the ball more than UTEP, but the Vandals are coming off a game in which they scored 41 points against another bad defense in Utah State. Going against New Mexico State’s horrid defense, I expect the Vandals to find little resistance. First one to 35 wins. Redskins/Giants over 45 These teams are 2nd and 3rd in the NFL in total offense. It looks like the Skins required a few extra weeks to start running the new Al Saunders offense efficiently. The first two weeks, they were pretty lame vs. Minny and Dallas, but have awakened the last two weeks. Putting 30 on the board vs. Jax shows this Skins offense, with Portis now healthy, can move the ball and score points with big plays. The Giants also have shown their offensive versatility and big play capability, with big plays and 20+ points against Indy, Philly and Seattle. Both teams however, have shown their defenses can be shredded and can give up big plays. They are 15th and 27th in total defense. Jax shredded the Skins with a few consistent drives and a few big plays. The Giants have given up more than 20 points every game. Both offenses should have a pretty nice day here with the defenses in retreat trying to stop two of the best running backs in the game (Portis and Barber) and trying to stop two passing games with playmakers (Toomer, Burress, Moss) that look like they might have big years. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Wisconsin - 20 vs Northwestern: Wisconsin offense looks alot better than everyone expected and their defense is tough. Pat F.'s tough years gets even tougher. Purdue + 11 @ Iowa: Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Ohio State with the build up and such a disappointment. Their defensive backfield is banged up and facing the basketball on grass offense. Iowa has enough talent to win, but this one is close. Illinois -7.5 vs Indiana How the fates of these two teams have changed over the last few weeks. Indiana is having trouble moving the ball and stopping people. Not a good combo for the Big Ten season. The Illini have some life after Juice got the nod two weeks ago. Nebraska -7 @ Iowa State: Iowa State struggled to get past UNI last week, winning after UNI missed a late FG. Nebraska struggled to get past Kansas but this team is looking to be good. Expect a high scoring affair in (L)ames. Wake Forest (+16.5) vs. Clemson Hard to believe an undefeated team is getting over 2 TDs at home this late in the season. Wake isn't great, but it's not a bad club. Clemson isn't as good as advertised but will win but I expect a closer score. THURSDAY NIGHT: NC State (+9.5) vs Florida State and UNDER 39 NC State has had FSU's number in the past few years. Amato is batting 500 against them. They won last year in Talahassee and the crowd will be behind the Pack tonight. I expect a shootout - 17-14 or something like that. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Thursday N.C. State +10.5 & under 39 NC State always plays well in big games and Florida St is a bit over-rated. I think this number should be lower, especially with FSU on the road. Michigan -15 I am with coast on this one. MSU is in the midst of the John L. Smith farewell tour. Michigan has playmakers on offense, and one of the stingiest defenses in the country. Stanton is dinged up, and this should be a blowout. New Mexico St/Idaho over 59.5 NMSU scored 38 and lost last week. Both teams will probably score 40. |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Thu Oct 05, 2006 4:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
FSU -9 1/2 A very rested FSU team takes one of the ACC's best defense against NC St. unexperienced QB Daniel Evans. FSU offense has struggled this season (discounting there blowout performance against Rice) but I am sold on FSU's defense and NC st. lack of experience. FSU by 12. FSU vs. NC St. UNDER 39 I like the under for similar reasons stated above. FSU offense has sputtered this season, look for FSU's D to contain a young QB and inexperienced offense. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I don't mean to be a smartass, but with three of you guys all liking the under tonight, I'm more than a little tempted to take the over. I usually don't bet college unders that are under 40 unless both teams are top ten defenses. That doesn't apply tonight, which makes the over very tempting to me anyway. Both defenses have been ahead of the offenses to be sure. You have that going for you, which is nice. But the contrarian in me is saying ovah. It's not an "official" play of mine, but it is tempting. Perhaps a pregame cocktail will help convince me to pull the trigger. Good luck to all. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Good call on the over Coast - too bad you didnt come back in to bet it.
24-20 State right now with about 10 mins left. |
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| Author: | Weezy F. Baby [ Fri Oct 06, 2006 12:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Michigan -15 1/2- Michigan St. travels to ann arbor and I see no way that Michigan does not beat them by at least 3 TDs, Michigan St. lost to Illinois. Bears -10- After the way that the Bears played last week against the Seahawks, I can't see the Bills scoring more than 6 points and the Bears should score at least 20. Baltimore +4 @ Denver- I think that Ravens are the best team in the NFL and the Broncos will not know what hit them. |
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| Author: | Matt Murton's Beard [ Fri Oct 06, 2006 1:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Man, I am having a bad bad stretch here. Kansas City -3 KC is going to run the ball all over that Arizona defense. Leinert will make rookie mistakes and will be pressured often with that bad offensive line. Even, bad defenses like KC's can catch balls thrown to them. Cowboys +2 TO shmeeoh. Bledsoe is going to shred that Eagle depleted secondary, Westbrook is not 100% and it ooks like Stallworth is out for this game. Dallas isn't going to let McNabb scramble like he did last week. Ravens +4 Jake Plummer + big game + Baltimore's defense = Raven win. The Ravens will force 4 turnovers in this game, Mcnair will do his job and get 10 points on the board, the defense will do the rest. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Bears -10 This game is going to be over by halftime.....Willis McGahee may suffer season ending ass-kicking. Grossman throws two TD's. Benson gets first rushing TD in the 4th quarter. Stanford +29. I love ND to crush the Cardinal. Brady Quinn continues to look like a Heisman candidate....but 29 points? Weiss takes his foot off the gas and 2nd stringers play most of the 3rd and all of the 4th quarter. Chiefs -3. The Cardinals pass D is suspect. Damon Huard starts to make Chiefs fans say "Trent who?" Tennessee -2 Because Stu-Gotz said so.... 
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Oct 06, 2006 4:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Louisville -30 Louisville wants to prove that they are an elite team worthy of a BCS shot, and what better way than pounding a team that lost 59-0 to Oklahoma. |
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| Author: | NotInTheBiz [ Fri Oct 06, 2006 9:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I would like to add my 2 cents. Thanks to Coast for running this.... Michigan -15 1/2 over MSU.... I've heard Bubba Smith is going to show up and kick John L.'s ass back to whence he came. Standford +29 vs. ND..... I hate to disagree with Doug, but I think ND will just put out enough to win. I don't see a blow out here. Bears -10 vs. Jauron's.... Bears just have too much going for them right now. I really believe Lovie has them focused and Grossman has made me a believer. |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Sat CFB |
Lines from the Greek at 9:55am Iowa St +7 over Nebraska Home dominated series with the home team 12-2 ATS last 14. I think Iowa St was looking ahead last week in their narrow escape vs NIowa giving us decent line value in this one. Last week Nebraska went to OT against a Kansas team that they have traditionally dominated. I see this one being decided late. Cincy -6 over Akron Both teams come in at 2-3 but looking at each of their schedules no doubt Cincy has played the tougher schedule so far. (OhSt, VaTx) Cincy got the win at home against the MAC last week and I see them getting this one by double digits today. Notre Dame -29.5 over Stanford I believe today is the day Brady Quinn gets back into the Heisman race. No doubt Coach Weiss has reminded his team that they barely got by this Stanford team last year. Stanford has been horrible this year and I can see ND getting this one by 40+ today. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Northwestern-Wisconsin UNDER 42 Going back to the well with Northwestern under. Wisky defense is sound against the run and the Cats have shown virtually zero passing game against good Ds. Wisky also pretty one dimensional and has shown little production against decent defenses (IU doesn't qualify). Northwestern D played respectably against PSU last week, even though their O didn't help them at all. Wisky doesn't get past 27 and Northwestern doesn't get to 14. Another Northwestern taffy pull. USC -19 vs. Washington This number has been bet down three points from the open as Joe Public jumps to back Tyrone Willingham after successive wins against Arizona and UCLA. This USC defense is in a different class entirely and after two less than inspiring non-covers, I expect the Trojans to bring it on D at home today. Booty and Jarrett expose the Huskies secondary in a way no other team has yet done. |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Sat Oct 07, 2006 11:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Week 6 Profiles in Stupidity(eight pick special) Michigan St. at Michigan -15 (52 1/2) Spartans have offically ended the aught six season. A beautiful day to run up the points. Over. Spartans 21 Wolverines 37 LSU +1 at Florida (42) Please visit fireurbanmeyer.com. Thank you. How can I say this nicely? Field goal frenzy. Under. LSU 12 Florida 9 Oklahoma at Texas -3 1/2 (47) Landstealers get jobbed by the refs, again! AP runs wild and 'Horns stay ahead. Over. Oklahoma 21 Texas 27 Tennesee -2 1/2 at Georgia (38) Bulldogs QB rotation no match for Vols. Tenn. will score 30 by themselves. Over. Tennesee 30 Georgia 9 courtesy pinnaclesports.com |
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| Author: | donspiracy [ Sat Oct 07, 2006 11:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
That smiley face on the Tenn. Georgia total points is supposed to be an eight. I tried to edit it a couple of times to no avail. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
NY Jets vs. Jacksonville over 38 The Jets defense is terrible, and both teams can move the ball really well. The Jags D is strong but 38 points should come easy. Dallas vs. Philadelphia over 43 Philly's secondary is banged up. Big day for Bledsoe, Owens and Glenn. This one could go over in the 3rd quarter. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Oct 08, 2006 10:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
chus and I are on the same page on a few this week... Jets-Jax OVER 38 Jets look a consistent over team with a good passing offense and questionable defense. Wash exposed a few holes in the Jax secondary that the Jets can likely exploit. Leftwich having a nice season; should continue today. Arizona +3-1/2 vs. KC The Chiefs are getting some love with this line, which I guess is based on playing Denver tough and routing the Niners. However, only great teams should be laying 3.5 on the road, except to the absolute worst. A few weeks ago, Arizona was a bigger favorite over SF than KC was. Now, playing at Zona, KC is rated 6.5 points better than Arizona (3.5 plus 3 for home field advantage)? That's a big adjustment in power ratings, though I guess Leinart starting his first game resulted in a downward adjustment for Arizona. But after seeing Warner fumble and throw stupid picks, Leinart might be an immediate improvement. OVerlay gives me value on the home dog. |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Sun Oct 08, 2006 10:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Early Sun NFL |
Indy -17 over Tenn Last 3 years in this park Indy has beaten Tenn by 32, 27 and 26 pts, and that was with decent Tenn teams. If the Colts get up early which I expect then they should be able to get a few turnovers from the young Titan QB. Cant see anything but a 20+ pt victory for Indy today. Indy 38-13 Chicago/Buffalo Under 34.5 In my opinion the best chance Buffalo has today is run run run. We have all seen the Dick Jauron story here, very conservative. I actually think Bears will try to establish the run a litte themselves today. Bears D speaks for itself. Bears 20-9 Lines from the greek at 10:45 this morning |
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| Author: | M_C [ Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Bears -10.5 D steps it up, Tommy w 3 sacks Detroit +6.5 the Viqueens have no offense, no offense, even if they win it will be by 3 Dallas +1, sorry Donovan I am going to philly to eat a cheese steak and see the crack in that bell, cowboys much better than eagles Indianapolis -18 tough to give up 3 tds but seriously Tennessee SUUUCKKKKKS Miami +9.5 they suck but New England does not have the ammunition to blow them out by double digits |
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| Author: | Rocks and Blows [ Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
CAROLINA -7.5 The Browns have scored 3 first quarter points this year while the Panthers have scored 27 first half points the past two weeks. The Panthers have run for over 100 yards the past 3 weeks and Cleveland is giving up 134 a game. I like Panthers big. DETROIT VS. MINNESOTA OVER 41 Detroits defense is giving up 35ppg the last 3 and have one of the worst secondarys in the leauge. Minnesota was to conservative last week and may have cost them, I look for them to open it up and the Lions will be able to put up points in a dome as well. KANSAS CITY VS. ARIZONA UNDER 39.5 KC is only giving up 11 ppg and last week shut down Alex Smith holding him to 97 yards passing and sacking him 5 times. Matt Leinart will have his problems and KC will run the ball and chew up the clock in a low scoring win. DALLAS +1 The Eagles secondary is hurt and were unable to get to Favre last week, If Bledsoe has time he will pick them apart like Eli did a few weeks ago. While in weeks 5-9 the last 3, Eagles 1-7 against the spread. DENVER VS. BALTIMORE UNDER 33 Combined these two teams are giving up 18 points a game and each team should play conservative this week. McNair has been relied upon to much and Plummer can't turn it over. Baltimore is under in 4 of last 6 road games and under in 8 of last 13 in Denver. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Baltimore +5.5 Too many points for Plummer to give up to a top notch defense. |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | MNF 10/9 |
Denver/Balt Under 33 2 of the better D's in the AFC go at tonite. Unless turnovers happen deep in a teams own territory I see this one staying under tonite. All MNF games have gone under so far and that is the way I see this one. I see a 16-13 type game tonite. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Monday Night 7 pt. Teaser: Baltimore +12-1/2 and UNDER 40-1/2 Agree that this should be a low scoring game, but 33 doesn't leave much room for defensive points or costly turnovers that go to points. 40 does. |
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