Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 6
10/13/2006 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, BetUs.com, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 6

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 5 witnessed the third straight positive weekend for the sportsbook industry, with all sportsbooks retaining an impressive 3%-6% of their handle. NFL Week 5 proved that on any given Sunday any team can win. Tennessee, an 18pt underdog, nearly beat Indy outright. This game broke up a lot Teaser and Parlay action. “It was by far the best Sunday of the year, a lot of Public teams failed to cover,” said 5Dimes.com line manager Lou.

The Public had another down weekend. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public posted their third consecutive losing weekend going 1-4. Over the last 3 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 7-15 record. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued to roll, posting another profitable weekend going 3-0. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 9-6.

View last week’s column. *Source: SportsInsights.com

Looking Ahead to this Week

We anticipate Cincinnati, Seattle, San Diego, and Chicago to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 6. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 6 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Once again Tampa Bay appears in the Games to Watch. They were kind to us last weekend. Why not this weekend? They’re a classic example of a team that’s received a lot of negative press in the media with all their injuries, but manage to come to play every Sunday. This pattern continues in NFL Week 6, even after a solid showing last week against New Orleans (which was a game Tampa Bay should have – and could have won). We’re expecting Tampa’s rookie QB to improve on his solid NFL debut. Now that he has an NFL start under his belt and has proven he can handle the pressure, we look for the Tampa offense to improve this week.

The game opened with Pinnacle at Cincinnati -4.5 but most sportsbook opened at -5.5 and have taken nothing but Cincinnati money. The Public is betting Cincy like they know the score. Public money has bloated this line all the way to 6. We’re locking in tremendous value in a fighting Tampa Bay squad getting +6 at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 Bet at BetUs.com Tampa Bay +6

San Diego Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers
You know how much the Games to Watch column loves home dogs and betting on bad teams. You thought last week’s play on Arizona over KC was tough to swallow. Well how about San Fran over San Diego? Yeah, let’s not forget what Tennessee taught everyone last week: that on any given Sunday any team can win. It comes down to believing that you can win, and going out and making some plays.

Readers of the Sports Marketwatch know first hand it goes against human nature – rooting for bad teams to do good things. But it’s exactly this human tendency: to bet on favorites, that we exploit – allowing us to make a CONSISTENT living. We believe this line is shaded 3 pts, and getting that kind of value means you’ll be cashing in more winners than losers.

San Fran posted their first win of the season over lowly Oakland. This game has affectionately been dubbed the “toilet bowl.” Now that San Fran has proven they can win, we expect them to start making big plays and believing in themselves. It’s always a good week of practice after a win. We like San Fran coming off their second win of the season getting +11pts at home. Plus, factor in Sharp buy back action coming in on San Fran, reported by 5Dimes and Oasis – and we smell value!
San Fran +11 Bet at 5Dimes.com San Fran +11

Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
And the hits just keep coming. Chicago, other than a small stumble against Minnesota, has been “lights out” this season. Once you start hearing every NFL commentator say, “Chicago will not lose a game this year,” you know there will be exceptional line value betting against The Bears. Every sportsbook we spoke with stated that this game would be their most lopsided game of the week…if not the year.

We circle this game for multiple reasons. First, Chicago is receiving a tremendous amount of hype in the media; thus follows a river of Public money. Next, Arizona is a +11.5 Home Dog on Monday Night. Is there any better value in the NFL than a Home Dog on Monday Night? We feel Arizona is getting an extra 2.5pts – which is plenty for us.

We anticipate the Monday Night stage to be the spark that turns around Arizona’s season. They came close to winning last week, but an impressive debut by rookie QB Leinart went down in the books as a loss. Arizona is a solid squad that just needs to turn it on for four quarters. Arizona will come to play on Monday Night, giving Chicago all they can handle.
Arizona Cardinals +12 Bet at 5Dimes.com Arizona Cardinals +12

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 6.

Games to Watch (9-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
San Fran +11
Arizona Cardinals +12

As of Friday night, over 33,000 bets have been made at 7 major casinos on the Bears game, with 86% of those bets on the Bears. Other one-sided action is cincy-85%; Jets-80%, philly 78% and chargers 72%.

The line is between 10.5 and 11.5 and up to Bears -12 at one place. Might hit 13 by game time. If you like the Bears, bet it early. If you want the points, play it late.

Great info. Thanks Coast