We're about halfway through this weekly wagering contest. New guys can still join in This any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

The winner will be the guy with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded. You must have at least 50 picks by season's end to win the prize.

After giving some thought to the prize, I've decided to award the winner a $100 gift certificate from a meat/steak company. I figured meat would be the one prize everybody would like.

Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com.

The board had its worst week of the season, going 32-58 ATS. Only two guys had winning weeks. After two straight 60% weeks, we gave it all back and then some. For the year, the board is now 281-269-16 (51%).

................................Last Week......................Season........................... %
Not in the Biz.............. 0-0 ..............................7-3.............................. 70
Hawkeye Vince............. 0-2.............................. 24-12.......................... 67
sabu.............................0-1.............................. 14-8-1......................... 64
Doug........................... 0-0.............................. 6-4-2........................... 60
Rocks and Blows........ ..1-4........................... 19-13-2......................... 59
Chus.............................8-9........................... 35-26-3....................... 57
donspiracy.................. 1-2.............................. 31-28-1....................... 53
Bud Dude.................... 4-3.............................. 24-21-1....................... 53
the gooch.................... 4-1.............................. 14-13..........................52
Coast.......................... 6-8.............................. 42-41-3....................... 50
Matt Murton’s Beard.... 0-0.............................. 16-17-1...................... 48
Good dolphin.............. 2-9.............................. 15-19.......................... 44
reents.......................... 5-12........................... 27-42-2....................... 39
BD...................................0-3........................... 2-6.............................25
Mitch Cumstein........... 2-4...............................8-14............................ 36
Woodridge Ryan......... 0-0............................... 1-2............................... 33

Chicago -13.5
I expect another rout like against the 49ers. Joey Harrington? I dont think so. Bears will cruise.

Atlanta -5
Detroit is awful and should have no answer to Vick, especially with Shaun Rogers serving a suspension.

West Virginia +1.5
I think WV is the better team. Louisville talks too much and always seems to blow a game somewhere on their easy schedule. The Big East is much improved this year, and this is where there schedule gets tough.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

"Slip Sliding Away", great song and an awful posistion I'm finding myself in

URGENT!!!! I just lost again l;ast week and I need a cant miss forf Saturday and Sunday. I like the 4 team parlays and I need to win one or my Boss (wife) wont let me bet her money anymore! This looks so easy but how can you predict what happened with the Saints and Panthers. Not to mention Texas and Iowa.



HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

UAB vs SMU over 47.5

Both offenses are better than the defenses. Should be a shoot-out.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

The true odds of winning a four team parlay are 16-1. So if you are an average gambler, you should expect to lose 16 of these for every one that you win. The standard payout is 10-1. Thus, this is most definitely not a good bet. But yes, I'm sure they are fun when you win.

As far what happened with the Saints and Iowa? I can tell you there were people here on the other side of both of those......

What happened to Iowa? They had a RS Fr starting at QB. He did a good job, but they turned it over and missed some field goals.. The probably should have covered the number but missed by a TD

Help me out Coast or anyone. My Sunday games I like are-

Cincy getting 3 at Baltimore

Giants giving Houston 13 at Giants stadium.

Pittsburgh -2 at home against Denver

* I love this one but I'd bet the other way if I was you guys.

Indy at N England Under 47.

Any better ideas or do u guys like another game or two?

The only one there that I like at all is NYG -13. I have a very hard time ever taking the under in a Colts game. As far as four team parlays go, I only play one on Sunday if I have a great Saturday.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Belvie, I haven't even begun breaking down the NFL card yet as I spend a lot of time this part of the week focusing on colleges. Gimme a few days and I'll have some thoughts. However, stay tuned to this page. I think you'll find some guys making some good cases for NFL games. Rocks and Blows has a strong record in the NFL and after stepping in a puddle last week, I expect him to bring it strong this week. Vince is strong in the colleges. He's like EF Hutton. WHen he speaks, you gotta listen. Sabu is coming on strong lately. Not in the biz isn't around much, but when he is, he's been strong. And chus has solid analysis. All these guys are making coin this season. If some of these guys match up on something, take an extra look at it.

Mr. Belvidere,

1. Baltimore -3 Palmer and Co. will play better on the road?

2. Giants -13 Sage Rosenfels leads the charge into the swamp!

3. Denver +2 Not expecting Broncos to start a losing streak.

4. Indy@NE (47) 5 TD's + 4 FG's. Peyton and Brady = Firepower. Take the over.

5.* Indy@NE The 1st half total is 24 @ pinnaclesports.com. Madden's head will explode if 9 FG's are kicked. Over.

_________________
CSFMB: Home of the small minded

I love when I take the over, and every pass gets dropped, and every run play is a predictable run into the heart of the defense.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

okay Coast.....I need some Saturday action too. GIVE IT TO ME!!!!!

Going back to the college ranks tonight.

Boise State -23

Boise averages nearly 50 ppg on the smurf turf. Fresno St. is 0-10 ATS over the last ten games, and gave up 68 points to Hawaii. I expect a big offensive output from BSU tonight.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I'm an amatuer but here I go.

I like-

Louisville at home -1 vs W Virginia. Home team, virtually straight up.

Mich St at home -2 vs Purdue. Gonna ride that comeback win last week.

Ohio St -27 at Illinois. should cover this by 2nd qtr

Goeorgia -7 ay Kentucky. Do they play football in Kentucky?

Texas Tech -17 1/2 at home vs Baylor. Tech almost knocked off Texas

So Carolina +2 at home vs Arkansas. Spurrier Spurrier Spurrier

Colorado- 3 1/2 at home vs Kansas St. State is down this year

Nebraska -6 at home vs Mizzou. Huskers almost beat Texas

Texas -17 at home vs Ok St. Love that cute lil Freshman QB.

N. Carolina +27 1/2 at Notre Dame. I pick ND every week and I lose.


Can an expert rate my picks? Should I bet the mortgage? or my lunch money?

Which comeback win? Indiana took MSU behind the woodshed last week. Purdue is beginning to tail off so this might be a good bet, but just make sure you know that Indiana runs a spread like Purdue.

Oh yeah and the update on the Score just said JL Smith is out as MSU coach.

I like this pick Chus but just cant pull the trigger on it. BSU's D has been giving up chunks of yards lately and 23 is a big number.

Let's try better this week and the spread has gone down a point.

Boise State -22 vs Fresno State- I don't know what's happened to Fresno State, but no defense and Boise State has to make a statement with this being the only game tonight to the BCS.

sorry Vince...was thinking of Northwestern game a couple of weeks ago. Gotta quit smokin the weed! Or smoke more.....

Vince....when will we be seeing your world famous picks? I dont trust mine.

Oh, I'll post a few here and there over the next day. I haven't had a chance to look over the lineup. No guarantees here. had an 0-2 week last week.

Good call on Boise guys although it looked like an easy cover and nearly a loss when Boise's D got soft again with the lead.

Baltimore -3 vs. Cincinnati
The Ravens are a dominant defensive team (3rd overall; 1st against the run), while the Bungles can't run the ball (25th) and can't stop the run (25th). The Bungles' offensive line has been a mess with injuries It looks like a given to me that the Bungles will be one-dimensional, which just means that the Ravens pass rush can pin their ears back and the secondary won't have to worry about run support. The Bengals have been efficient when they have gotten in the red zone...albeit it they haven't gotten there nearly as much yet this season as they did last year. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL to score every time they've been in the red zone this season, scoring 12 TDs and 7 FGs on their 19 trips to the red zone this year. Baltimore, however, leads the NFL in red zone defense, allowing just 2 TDs (league leading 14%), 5 FGs and 7 trips with zero points. So Cincy has gotten into the red zone just 19 times in 7 games, while Baltimore has allowed just 14 trips in 7 games. That's not very much offensive production to be expected for Cincy. And not nearly enough to cover against a team that looks to be more productive after the firing of OC Fassell

Maryland +19.5
Clemson is a better team, but 19.5 points? Clemson doesn't have an explosive enough offense to blow out the Terps.

Wake Forest +3.5
In 13 ACC games with the home team as a dog, the underdogs are 10-3. The only three losses are games involving UNC and Duke, so throw those three out the window.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

San Jose State-New Mexico State UNDER 62-1/2 (Pinnacle)
I played on NMS OVER a few times early this season when they played pass-oriented teams with bad defenses (like UTEP). Hal Mumme is a classic "over" coach as his team throws nearly every down and is one of the two worst defenses in America. However, this SJS team is not the stereotypical all pass/little D Wac team. Dick Tomey has brought the most interest in defense to the San Jose campus since I was dodging Iranian protestors as a student there in the 70s. The Spartans are 2nd in the WAC in scoring defense (behind Boise), allowing just 19 ppg. And the Spartans are first in pass defense, allowing just 160 ypg. Now they might not be first after this game, considering NMS will likely throw 60x in the game. However, one of the keys that Tomey brings into this game is the desire to possess the ball, control the clock and keep the NMS offense off the field (so his defense can rest between their constant bouts with pasa defense chasing). And Tomey has the running game to do that with the little longhair Yonus Davis carrying for nearly 100 ypg and the Spartans, overall, ranking 2nd in the Wac in rushing offense (behind Boise). Last year, SJS used the same strategy of running the ball (257 yards on 49 attempts) and controlling time of possession (34 minutes, compared to 26 for NMS) in a 27-10 win. I expect the same approach and similar stats (if not score) this year.

Time to start this week:

Saturday

Kansas @ Iowa State +2.5:
Both teams are struggling big time and need a win to be able to move towards bowl eligibility. Kansas has lost 5 of 7 and is 0-3 on the road this year. Iowa State has lost 4 in a row and 6 of 7, but is 3-2 at home. In those 6 losses, you have big names in there: Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska. If you look at the Kansas losses, you have Texas A&M and Nebraska and then Baylor and OK State. Kansas has struggled with teams that can throw the ball, giving up an average almost 280 yards a game through the air. Look for Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe to have a big afternoon in (L)Ames. (Updated this line per pinnaclesports)

Central Michigan -18@Temple
Temple broke their losing streak last week against Bowling Green. They did this by blocking a punt and returning a kickoff for a TD. They were beat in every other facet of the game. Sometimes the ball bounces your way. Central Michigan is trying to move to bowl eligibility with a 6th win and are unbeaten in the MAC. This is a team trying to prove something and will look to run it up before tough matchups with Western Michigan and Northern Illinois in the upcoming weeks.

Navy @ Duke +11.5:
Since their starting QB was hurt two weeks back, Navy has struggled to put up points, getting a total of 14 points in their last two games against the likes of Rutgers and Notre Dame. Duke has found a semblance of an offense lately, averaging 20 points per game in their last 4. They have made a living with the pass, which Navy struggles with. On D, their rush D is admirable, hopefully keeping this within the number this week.

North Carolina @ Notre Dame -25
North Carolina suspended their leading rusher and their best linebacker got hurt last week. They gave their last ditch effort for Bunting last week keeping close to Wake Forest. Notre Dame is trying to impress voters every week and the only way they do so is to paste UNC this weekend in South Bend.

Ball State @ Michigan Under 47.5
The game could be close to the number if Mario Manninghan returns from his injury. Expect Michigan to play this one close to the vest to not show anything before the colossal matchup with tOSU. The number 1 defense in the country will battle for a shutout.

Purdue-Michigan State OVER 55-1/2
Two "go against" teams with bad defenses hook up here and the defenses are so bad, particularly in pass coverage, that both offenses might have their most productive conference games of the season. Michigan State is 7th and Purdue last in the conference in total defense. The two teams are 9th and 11th (Pur) in pass defense, and 9th and 11th (MSU) in scoring defense. And while MSU's total defense stats might be a shade better than Purdue's, Sparty is a mess in so many ways, ranking last in the conference in sacks, red zone defense, opponents' 4th down conversions and penalties. Both offenses, however, have been reasonably productive when they have played opponents without outstanding defenses. The teams rank 1st and 4th in the Big Ten in pass offense and 3rd and 5th in scoring offense. With both teams having disappointing seasons, and with MSU coach John L. Smith already fired and Purdue coach Joe Tiller deserving to be fired, this game looks to be one of those "who gives a darn, let's just fling the ball all over the lot" kind of games. After some bad losses, these teams need a little fun in their lives and an offensive explosion might be good for their souls....even if one of them will be on the losing end.

ST. LOUIS RAMS -2.5

Rams can put up big numbers at homew and the last time the Cheifs were on the road, it was a nightmare. Going with trends as well,, Cheifs 0-6-1 on turf in last 7, and STL have won 16 and covered 13 of it's last 17 at home in non-confrence games.

FALCONS -5.5

I'm not buying into Vick yet, but Atlanta will run on a weak defense without their best player and Detroit has a TO ratio problem. If Vick is even half as good as he has been the past few weeks, it will be over by half.

West Virginia +1.5 at Louisville

I have seen nothing out of Louisville in the last month or so that I would call impressive. I think they are living on pre Brohm injury hype. West Virginia however is a team that has been on the rise for the better part of 2 years. They grind it out better than Madonna on a prop cross. I like teams that can run when playing in tough road venues. That type of offense seems less suceptible to fluctuations in performance. Give me the Mountaineers and I like them big in this one.

Kent St. -15 @ Buffalo
I normally don't lay doubles on the road, but I'm making an exception here for what I think is an "exceptional" situation. Kent suffered a big loss last week at home to Ohio and you might think they would be flat here. But while that loss hurt Kent's chances at a Mac title, it hasn't killed them as Ohio still has a few tough games left. Kent is a solid Mac-quality rushing team and last week's loss was no real disgrace. They weren't outplayed, except for a few returns. The offensive/defensive stats with Ohio were very comparable. The thing is, this Buffalo team BEAT Kent last year, so the Flashes of Kent are feeling a little payback might be in order. So here we have a good team, coming off a loss, going to play one of the worst five teams in America...and they are bringing the bitter taste of revenge with them. Now I don't normally play the "revenge" angle, but combined with the fact Kent is coming off a loss and is still in the hunt for the Mac title, I think they will bring full attention to this one. Buffalo is just absolutely pitiful on both sides of the ball. They can't stop the run, which will be critical in matching up with Kent, as the Bulls rank 4th worst in the nation in rushing defense. And Buffalo is inept on offense, ranking 7th worst in the nation in total offense. I normally wouldn't play road chalk mismatches like this, but as I said, the situation will lead to Kent bringing the energy necessary to cover this 2 TD+ nut.

Thursday Night Football- After a win with Boise let's try for another win.

West Virginia +1 vs Louisville- Louisville hasn't looked good since their 2nd game. With the big injury to Bush and Brohm still coming off an injury. I like West Virginia's offense should run Louiville out of the game and the Mountaineers make a statement why they should play in the national title game.