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| Week 10: This Week's Market https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=7818 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Week 10: This Week's Market |
The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble What are our players betting now? Clemson -17 -108 v. N.C. State The Tigers opened at -13 (-105) and quickly became a public favorite. The sharps didn't have a clear opinion on this game and the public kept betting Clemson up. While N.C. State has a mere 3-6 record, most of their games have been very competitive with only one loss by more than eight points. Wake Forest +8.5 +101 v. Florida State Every once in awhile, we look at one of our openers and wince at the lopsided action. This happened after we opened the Seminoles at -3.5 (-105) and the early sharps played FSU. Fortunately, we can get a good line fairly cheaply due to lower limits earlier in the week. Even after the line stabilized, we're still seeing sharps on Florida State, while the public is strongly on Wake Forest. New Orleans +4 -102 v. Pittsburgh The Saints opened as a 6-point underdog, and were quickly bet down by the public. We took two bets on the Saints for every one on the Steelers. Despite the public sentiment, the sharps are evenly split on this game with no change of opinion of note as the line dropped. Chicago +3 -125 v. New York We opened the Bears at -1 (-112), and took a storm of public money. After Chicago became an underdog at +2.5 and +3, the sharps started lining up on the Bears. The public is quick to react to a single disappointing performance, and seems to have forgotten that the Bears have the biggest point differential in the NFL, outscoring their opponents by an average of 16.8 points per game. Denver/Oakland Over 33 -105 The Raiders have an unusual combination that often makes playing the "Under" very tempting. In their eight games this year, they've only scored six offensive touchdowns. The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL for offensive yardage at 228 yards per game and points scored with 11.5 per game. But... Oakland has the #2 passing defense, allowing just 160 passing yards per game. Taken together with a match-up against a strong Broncos' defense, it's no surprise that this game has the lowest total of the week. Our opener of 37 took hits mainly from sharps playing the under. "Stranger than Fiction" under $14 million -140 Since you never know what will catch a player's fancy we like to experiment with new markets. Case in point is our opening three-day weekend box office propositions. The movie market on the opening weekend success of "Stranger than Fiction", drew a lot of interest and brought in moderate balanced action. We opened at $14.5m (-108), and the price has drifted down due to the opinions of our "movie sharps". If anyone has good data on buy/sell costs of 0.5 million for movie openers, please write me at askthebook@pinnaclesports.com. --------- I was busy this week, but I never saw the Bears at +3. If I had, I would have bought it faster than you can say OUTRIGHT. Bears are back to -1. Hopefully, this will go off at about pick em, though the Giants injuries are rekindling interest in the Bears so it's possible it could go higher. I think the Bears are the play, though. |
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