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 Post subject: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2013 11:00 am 
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One week to go. Predictions? SPMack, where you at?

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2013 12:35 pm 
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Waiting for the field to be announced, but I think Revolutionary makes a comeback.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:18 am 
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Here we go...link below probably won't be working until after 5pm today.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-06-08



1. Frac Daddy 30-1

2. Freedom Child 8-1

3. Overanalyze 12-1

4. Giant Finish 30-1

5. Orb 3-1

6. Incognito 20-1

7. Oxbow 5-1

8. Midnight Taboo 30-1

9. Revolutionary 9-2

10. Will Take Charge 20-1

11. Vyjack 20-1

12. Palace Malice 15-1

13. Unlimited Budget (filly) (8-1)

14. Golden Soul 10-1



Right now, I like the Filly, Revolutionary, and Oxbow.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:37 am 
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Just like they finished in the Derby! Plus if the track is off Freedom Child freaked in the Mud in the Peter Pan

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:16 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Just like they finished in the Derby! Plus if the track is off Freedom Child freaked in the Mud in the Peter Pan


Albertani seems to think Freedom Child relishes the mud. I think he gets a little crazy in the gate and that's what happened in the Peter Pan.

If Orb is 5-2 or better I'll be firing on him again. I also think we're going to see a good race from Palace Malice.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:41 am 
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I watched the Peter Pan on youtube last night, and Freedom Child definitely intrigued me....also add the fact that it will be muddy, and it will be at the same track that he beat his foes by over 13.

McPeek said yesterday on twitter that his plan is to have Frac Daddy run out to the lead, but Frac is not a speed horse. I don't see Frac being the next Da'Tara.

I just don't know if Orb can do 3 races in 5 weeks.

I think I may do a .50 Super Box with the top 5 Speed horses minus Orb:

Oxbow, Golden Soul, Rev, Freedom Child, and the filly Unltd Budget. That will be $60.

I'll do a few tri's and exactas for the other $40, for a total of $100.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:47 am 
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I'm convinced that Orb is the best horse of his generation. I don't discount that he may be off-form after going a bunch of solid races from all the way back January at Gulfstream to the Preakness. But that's why the possibility exists of getting 5-2 or 3-1 on him. If he runs just a little better at Pimlico we'd be looking at 4-5 tops on him in here. If he wins the Preakness, the Belmont field is about half this size and he's 1-5. So I'm willing to throw the race out and hope he's good on Saturday.

I figure if they ran this race 100 times under various scenarios and conditions, Orb would win between 30 and 40 times. Maybe I'm overrating the horse, but I don't think so. I haven't fleshed out a complete line yet, but I figure I'll have him right around 2-1. Normally that would mean he's a bet for me at 3-1, but because it's the Belmont I'm willing to grant a little leeway and take 5-2. The only thing that could change that might be a big enough overlay on something I think has a legitimate handful of chances like Golden Soul or Will Take Charge or Palace Malice. I'm certain that won't happen with Golden Soul who is likely to be no worse than the third choice at probably around 5 or 6 to 1.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:55 am 
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spmack wrote:
I watched the Peter Pan on youtube last night, and Freedom Child definitely intrigued me....also add the fact that it will be muddy, and it will be at the same track that he beat his foes by over 13.

McPeek said yesterday on twitter that his plan is to have Frac Daddy run out to the lead, but Frac is not a speed horse. I don't see Frac being the next Da'Tara.

I just don't know if Orb can do 3 races in 5 weeks.

I think I may do a .50 Super Box with the top 5 Speed horses minus Orb:

Oxbow, Golden Soul, Rev, Freedom Child, and the filly Unltd Budget. That will be $60.

I'll do a few tri's and exactas for the other $40, for a total of $100.

Spmack Daddy what always gets me is that you think it's to much for Orb having 3 races in 5 weeks...but not Oxbow or Will Take Charge????? It might just be me ,but I do not like horses that have medicore 3 or 4 clunkers and then uncork a race like Oxbow.....Orb and Revolutionary have been consistent preformers!

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:58 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
spmack wrote:
I watched the Peter Pan on youtube last night, and Freedom Child definitely intrigued me....also add the fact that it will be muddy, and it will be at the same track that he beat his foes by over 13.

McPeek said yesterday on twitter that his plan is to have Frac Daddy run out to the lead, but Frac is not a speed horse. I don't see Frac being the next Da'Tara.

I just don't know if Orb can do 3 races in 5 weeks.

I think I may do a .50 Super Box with the top 5 Speed horses minus Orb:

Oxbow, Golden Soul, Rev, Freedom Child, and the filly Unltd Budget. That will be $60.

I'll do a few tri's and exactas for the other $40, for a total of $100.

Spmack Daddy what always gets me is that you think it's to much for Orb having 3 races in 5 weeks...but not Oxbow or Will Take Charge????? It might just be me ,but I do not like horses that have medicore 3 or 4 clunkers and then uncork a race like Oxbow.....Orb and Revolutionary have been consistent preformers!


I wasn't surprised at what happened at Pimlico. I thought someone could get on the front and get a dawdling pace and hold everyone off. But there were at least two or three horses I would have thought might do it before I got to Oxbow.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:48 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
spmack wrote:
I watched the Peter Pan on youtube last night, and Freedom Child definitely intrigued me....also add the fact that it will be muddy, and it will be at the same track that he beat his foes by over 13.

McPeek said yesterday on twitter that his plan is to have Frac Daddy run out to the lead, but Frac is not a speed horse. I don't see Frac being the next Da'Tara.

I just don't know if Orb can do 3 races in 5 weeks.

I think I may do a .50 Super Box with the top 5 Speed horses minus Orb:

Oxbow, Golden Soul, Rev, Freedom Child, and the filly Unltd Budget. That will be $60.

I'll do a few tri's and exactas for the other $40, for a total of $100.

Spmack Daddy what always gets me is that you think it's to much for Orb having 3 races in 5 weeks...but not Oxbow or Will Take Charge????? It might just be me ,but I do not like horses that have medicore 3 or 4 clunkers and then uncork a race like Oxbow.....Orb and Revolutionary have been consistent preformers!




I'm not interested in Will Take Charge, at all. And I don't think Oxbow will win, either. In fact, I may even drop him.

I just think of horses that ran in all 3 TC's hardly ever do good in the 3rd leg.

2012 - Optimizer (11th, 6th, 10th in the Derby, Preakness, Belmont respectively)

2011 - Shackleford (4th, 1st, 5th)

2011 - Animal Kingdom (1st, 2nd, 6th)

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:37 pm 
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Pouring in Elmont....Freedom Child is moving way way up 8)

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:39 pm 
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IB, where you at? You made the prediction last year of Atigun being in the money, and had I listened, I would have scored.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:44 am 
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WHAT DO WE HAVE??? LETS GOI!

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:22 am 
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$25 WPS. #6 Incognito

Yup. 20-1

Fyi, TVG refunds your win money if your horse placesbin belmont up to 25. Thus the wager

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:58 am 
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Orb at 7-2 is like stealing.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:04 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Orb at 7-2 is like stealing.


My guy is giving me 5/2.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:10 am 
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Chus wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Orb at 7-2 is like stealing.


My guy is giving me 5/2.


On the DRF site it said the on-track odds at 10:15 a.m. today were 7-2. Revolutionary was the favorite at 2-1.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:31 am 
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ABR just tweeted that Orb is 2-1 and Rev is 5-1.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:34 am 
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Updated Odds below. The biggest change is Oxbow. The bettors appear to be cooling off on him major.



spmack wrote:
Here we go...link below probably won't be working until after 5pm today.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-06-08



1. Frac Daddy 29-1

2. Freedom Child 9-1

3. Overanalyze 10-1

4. Giant Finish 28-1

5. Orb 2-1

6. Incognito 17-1

7. Oxbow 11-1

8. Midnight Taboo 25-1

9. Revolutionary 5-1

10. Will Take Charge 19-1

11. Vyjack 25-1

12. Palace Malice 15-1

13. Unlimited Budget (filly) (12-1)

14. Golden Soul 11-1



Right now, I like the Filly, Revolutionary, and Oxbow.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:00 am 
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Can someone do me a favor and post this entire link? For some reason, the NY Daily News website does not load on my work computer, and the link is not working on my phone, either.


http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/therac ... une-8-2013

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:19 am 
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spmack wrote:
Can someone do me a favor and post this entire link? For some reason, the NY Daily News website does not load on my work computer, and the link is not working on my phone, either.


http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/therac ... une-8-2013


Quote:
Jerry Bossert's Belmont analysis for Saturday, June 8, 2013

BY Jerry Bossert

1. Master Cip adds blinkers after finishing second in similar spot last month. Dehere of the Cat failed as the chalk in last after slow start; can atone. Tycoon Cat goes first time off the David Jacobson claim (27%).

2. Schoolyard Dreams takes needed drop and should get a contested pace to close into. Death Star hasn't started since July 22 but can fire fresh. Gombey Dancer probably needed last off two-month break.

3. It's Your Dime looks well spotted for first start since Nov. 18. Life's a Stage gets a big switch to Cohen. Lara was a wide fourth in return on the main; may grass. DIRT SELECTIONS: Concealed.

4. Captain Davrick has been second in last two; Churchill invader looks the best. Private Irving A showed good speed in last. Bernardo finished a close third in last in similar spot.

5. Moreno goes turf to dirt adding blinkers after weakening late going longer. Risky Asset failed as the chalk when he tired late to fifth in the slop. Rap d'Oro makes second start back for Hushion. Sneaky Blowout and Accelerare both rate a chance for Pletcher.

6. Power Broker was sharp scoring in the slop in last for Baffert. Irsaal is 2-for-2 at Belmont, including driving score in last. Always in a Tiz has been training well for return; passed on the Belmont for this.

7. Fast Bullet shows two bullet works shipping in from Santa Anita for Baffert; won 3-of-4. Sage Valley seeks fifth straight score and is 2-for-3 over this strip. Caixa Eletronica should be rolling late.

8. Laugh Out Loud faced better in Europe where she won four-of-10 career starts. Hungry Island was a troubled second in last beaten a neck. Mizdirection ships in from California seeking fifth straight score.

9. Let Em Shine ships in from California seeking fourth straight decision. Zee Bros was razor sharp scoring at Pimlico three weeks ago. Clearly Now has won three-of-six career starts never finishing off the board.

10. Point of Entry has won six of last seven and is working steadily for return; take the short price. Twilight Eclipse has won four-of-seven career turf starts; steps up. Real Solution may have needed last of the bench.

11. Orb had everything go wrong for him in the Preakness but can atone in the Belmont. Revolutionary has never been off the board in his career; should be coming late. Unlimited Budget has won 4-of-5; filly fits with these. Oxbow wired them in the Preakness but should be challenged early today.

12. Gimme Credit was reclaimed by Martin after finishing fourth in last; owns six wins over this course. Sky Blue Pink weakened to eighth in return; probably needed last off the bench. Papa Freud steps up off impressive driving maiden score. DIRT SELECTIONS: Reggie D, Ultimate Empire, Bond Vigilante.

13. Nineinthenine just missed in return at Delaware when fourth beaten less than two lengths; moves forward. J W Blue was fourth in lone turf try against better; consider. East of Danzig draws outside post but can factor with clean trip. DIRT SELECTION: Sovereign Default.

BEST BET -- Gimme Credit (12th)

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:46 am 
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Thanks!

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:43 pm 
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Anyone betting any tri or super boxes?

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 2:09 pm 
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Tri 2-5-9 Super 2-5-9-14 Still love the 2 the only real speed in here

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 4:21 pm 
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Best of luck to all! I won't post my picks, as they are based on no actual science. Hope someone catches some luck, though.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:54 pm 
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I won nothing. Oh, well... it was fun.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:55 pm 
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Joe Orr Road ..Orbs a piece of shit..as a matter of fact all 3 winners of the Triple Crown races are dogs

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:27 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road ..Orbs a piece of shit..as a matter of fact all 3 winners of the Triple Crown races are dogs


I agree that there are no all-time horses in this group, Walt. But I think calling Orb a "piece of shit" is overstating it.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2013 8:09 am 
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The Belmont Stakes will be renamed NW of a race other than a maiden!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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 Post subject: Re: Belmont Stakes
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:17 pm 
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We decided to go at the last minute. Broke about even not counting the expensive beers and food. Big win was picking forty tales to win. It's pretty amazing that Arlington Park is actually better than Belmont Park. It was still fun though.

We may drive up to Saratoga later in the year. I was told that is nicer.

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