Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Black Onyx
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| Derby Winner https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=78841 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Derby Winner |
I want one Horse! Not the usual 3 horses that all have a chance |
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| Author: | newper [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Verrazano. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there. I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic. My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents. |
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| Author: | newper [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
spmack wrote: Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there. I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic. My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents. He only wanted one horse! |
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| Author: | spmack [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
newper wrote: spmack wrote: Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there. I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic. My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents. He only wanted one horse! So why did you give him the chalk? When was the last time a chalk won? |
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| Author: | spmack [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Last 10 Winners, only 3 chalks..... 2012 - I'll Have Another Odds - 15-1 2011 - Animal Kingdom Odds - 21-1 2010 - Super Saver Odds - 8-1 2009 - Mine That Bird Odds - 50-1 2008 - Big Brown (chalk) Odds - 5-2 2007 - Street Sense (chalk) Odds - 5-1 2006 - Barbaro Odds - 6-1 2005 - Giacomo Odds - 50-1 2004 - Smarty Jones (chalk) Odds - 4-1 2003 - Funny Cide Odds - 13-1 |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Black Onyx |
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| Author: | spmack [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Black Onyx
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| Author: | spmack [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Unofficial PP's...Code West and Gov Charlie are both out, Baffert will have no horses this year. Speed Last Race 106Goldencents 105 Mylute 105Revolutionary 101 Will Take Charge 100Golden Soul 100 Verrazano 99Govenor Charlie 99Normandy Invasion 99 Vyjack 97Code West 97Orb 96 Black Onyx 96Charming Kitten 96Java's War 96Overanalyze 96 Palace Malice 94Itsmyluckyday 92 Frac Daddy 92 Tiz a Minister 91 Falling Sky 90Oxbow 90 Power Broker 86 Winning Cause NA Lines of Battle Back Speed 106Goldencents 105 Mylute 105Revolutionary 104Normandy Invasion 104Overanalyze 100Golden Soul 100 Verrazano 99Govenor Charlie 99 Vyjack 97Code West 97Orb 97 Palace Malice 96 Black Onyx 96Charming Kitten 96Java's War 94Itsmyluckyday 92 Frac Daddy 92 Tiz a Minister 91 Falling Sky 90Oxbow 90 Power Broker Avg Class Last 3 Races 122.5 Verrazano 122.0Itsmyluckyday 121.1Orb 120.9Goldencents 120.7Normandy Invasion 120.4Overanalyze 120.2 Vyjack 119.8Revolutionary 119.7Java's War 119.6Oxbow 119.4 Mylute 119.4 Palace Malice 119.3 Falling Sky 119.3 Tiz a Minister 118.8 Will Take Charge 118.6Code West 118.5Charming Kitten 118.5 Power Broker 118.2Lines of Battle 118.0Golden Soul 117.5Govenor Charlie 117.2 Frac Daddy 116.9 Black Onyx 116.4 Winning Cause Prime Power 153.4 Verrazano 151.2Revolutionary 149.2Goldencents 149.1Itsmyluckyday 148.8 Palace Malice 147.8Overanalyze 147.3 Mylute 147.2Code West 146.9Orb 145.9 Power Broker 144.8 Vyjack 144.5Oxbow 143.5Normandy Invasion 143.1Charming Kitten 142.9 Falling Sky 141.6Govenor Charlie 140.8Java's War 139.6 Frac Daddy 138.8Golden Soul 138.8 Will Take Charge 138.6 Black Onyx 136.6 Tiz a Minister 135.2Lines of Battle 134.4 Winning Cause Early Pace last race 114Code West 101Goldencents 97 Falling Sky 97 Mylute 97 Power Broker 95Revolutionary 94 Frac Daddy 92 Will Take Charge 90Overanalyze 89Govenor Charlie 86 Black Onyx 86 Palace Malice 84Oxbow 83Golden Soul 82Charming Kitten 80Itsmyluckyday 78 Winning Cause 77 Tiz a Minister 76Orb 73Java's War 73 Verrazano 71Normandy Invasion 70 Vyjack NA Lines of Battle Late Pace Last Race 114Normandy Invasion 110Java's War 109 Vyjack 108 Verrazano 104Charming Kitten 103Orb 100Golden Soul 99Govenor Charlie 97Goldencents 96Itsmyluckyday 96 Mylute 96 Palace Malice 96 Tiz a Minister 94 Black Onyx 94Revolutionary 94 Will Take Charge 92Overanalyze 91 Winning Cause 85Oxbow 81 Frac Daddy 76Code West 76 Falling Sky 72 Power Broker NA Lines of Battle |
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| Author: | KDdidit [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
dumb question: can you bet on the Derby at Arlington Park? |
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| Author: | spmack [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
doug - evergreen park wrote: dumb question: can you bet on the Derby at Arlington Park? Most definitely. They may charge you a few bucks for general admission, but I'm not sure. Hawthorne and Maywood Park charge 3 bucks. All of the OTB's outside of the City of Chicago are free. The two OTB's in the city charge $2. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
spmack wrote: Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there. I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic. My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents. Beg to differ spmack Orb will be favorite after his workouts a wise guy horse...remember 1 winner and 18 losers! |
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| Author: | newper [ Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
spmack wrote: Last 10 Winners, only 3 chalks..... What other position yields 30% winners?? The 10-1's always win 40% of the derbys? Plus if you are winning 30% of the time, then you only need to be 3-1 to be a positive payout, which I would imagine will be the case. If you are more confident of another horse, I'd be willing to bet you heads up on who finishes better. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: spmack wrote: Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there. I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic. My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents. Beg to differ spmack Orb will be favorite after his workouts a wise guy horse...remember 1 winner and 18 losers! Andy Serling @andyserling 7m As my friend @DougieSal just pointed out, this year's likely Derby favorite, Orb, ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia, same day.......and same distance, at the same track. Good thing Fear the Kitten was able to prove his Derby worthiness over Dreaming of Julia. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Just discovered there is a Trackside OTB in Waukegan and McHenry. Still might have to try and make it to the park. OTB at Arlington is free. Admission is $12 on Saturday. Think I may have to bet some ponies! |
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| Author: | spmack [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
newper wrote: spmack wrote: Last 10 Winners, only 3 chalks..... What other position yields 30% winners?? The 10-1's always win 40% of the derbys? Plus if you are winning 30% of the time, then you only need to be 3-1 to be a positive payout, which I would imagine will be the case. If you are more confident of another horse, I'd be willing to bet you heads up on who finishes better. I was just saying that chalks lose more than they win, and the only time chalks win is when it is considered an all time horse. From what I can gather, there are no "all time" horses in this derby from what handicappers are saying. Revolutionary finishes better than Verrazano in my opinion. $5 bet? |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
spmack wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: spmack wrote: Verrazano is going to be the favorite, so I don't think you should go there. I really like Revolutionary, it's proven that he can fight thru traffic. My 2nd favorite will be Goldencents. Beg to differ spmack Orb will be favorite after his workouts a wise guy horse...remember 1 winner and 18 losers! Andy Serling @andyserling 7m As my friend @DougieSal just pointed out, this year's likely Derby favorite, Orb, ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia, same day.......and same distance, at the same track. Good thing Fear the Kitten was able to prove his Derby worthiness over Dreaming of Julia. Spmack longshots don't have the best beyers or comparisions races like the top horses. What did these to twatters like last year probably said the same shit about I'll have another! |
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| Author: | spmack [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Eddie Olczyz like Revolutionary. |
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| Author: | a retard [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
doug - evergreen park wrote: Just discovered there is a Trackside OTB in Waukegan and McHenry. Still might have to try and make it to the park. OTB at Arlington is free. Admission is $12 on Saturday. Think I may have to bet some ponies! I typically do my derby wagers at the Arlington OTB the morning of the derby. Easy in--easy out. However the track opens on friday with free admission and 3pm post time so this time I will go after work for the last 4 or 5 races and just place my derby wagers then. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Black Onyx I like Black Onyx too. I'm rolling with Normandy Invasion. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Irish Boy wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Black Onyx I like Black Onyx too. I'm rolling with Normandy Invasion. I was reading your 6000 word report last year  , and you were pretty spot on. While of course you didn't say "bet the house on I'll Have Another", you didn't necessarily say no to him either. Hoping you do one this year, too. I will write one, but it will be from a very novice standpoint.
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| Author: | spmack [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Unless something changes, my top 3 are Revolutionary-Goldencents-Vyjack. Itsmyluckyday will by mid-shot horse. Palace Malice will be my long shot (20 and over) horse. |
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| Author: | Irish Boy [ Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
spmack wrote: Irish Boy wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Black Onyx I like Black Onyx too. I'm rolling with Normandy Invasion. I was reading your 6000 word report last year , and you were pretty spot on. While of course you didn't say "bet the house on I'll Have Another", you didn't necessarily say no to him either. Hoping you do one this year, too. I will write one, but it will be from a very novice standpoint.I was pretty neutral on I'll Have Another, but I thought the combination of the gate and the young jockey would doom him. He was given a masterful ride and proved much the best. I also thought the California races were being overrated, which I was dead wrong about. The Derby prep is coming. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Wed May 01, 2013 8:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
It's looking like shit weather for Saturday, so I think I may just do the OTB Saturday morning. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 01, 2013 8:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
doug - evergreen park wrote: It's looking like shit weather for Saturday, so I think I may just do the OTB Saturday morning. I'm not sure exactly where you are, but Nicolino's in McHenry is in the middle of nowhere way the hell out off Bull Valley Road. Trackside Waukegan may be your best bet, but there's also an OTB at River and Milwaukee called Player's. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Wed May 01, 2013 8:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
You mean 2500 feet west of Highway 31 near the massive Medical Center? Arlington and Waukegan are about the same distance. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 01, 2013 8:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
doug - evergreen park wrote: You mean 2500 feet west of Highway 31 near the massive Medical Center? I guess it's convenient for somebody. I used to eat lunch there a couple times a week when I was on the road selling. Our HQ was near Randall and Algonquin. I'd meet guys from the office up there. I like Nicolino's but it was a haul from Algonquin. It was a haul from Mundelein. It was a haul from Libertyville. But I'm a guy who thinks anything west of Cicero Avenue is the boonies.
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Wed May 01, 2013 4:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
Revolutionary gets the 3rd post. Verrazano is on the 14th. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Wed May 01, 2013 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Winner |
1 -- Black Onyx / K. Breen / J. Bravo 2 -- Oxbow / D. Lukas / G. Stevens 3 -- Revolutionary / T. Pletcher / C. Borel 4 -- Golden Soul / D. Stewart / R. Albarado 5 -- Normandy Invasion / C. Brown / J . Castellano 6 -- Mylute / T. Amoss / R. Napravnik 7 -- Giant Finish / T. Dutrow / J. Espinoza 8 -- Goldencents / D. O'Neil / K. Krigger 9 -- Overanalyze / T. Pletcher / R. Bejarano 10 -- Palace Malice / T. Pletcher / M. Smith 11 -- Lines of Battle / A. O'Brien / R. Moore 12 -- Itsmyluckyday / E. Plesa / E. Trujillo 13 -- Falling Sky / J. Terranova II / L. Saez 14 -- Verrazano / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez 15 -- Charming Kitten / T. Pletcher / E. Prado 16 -- Orb / S. McGaughey / J. Rosario 17 -- Will Take Charge / D. Lukas / J. Court 18 -- Frac Daddy / K. McPeek / V. Lebron 19 -- Java's War / K. McPeek / J. Leparoux 20 -- Vyjack / R. Rodriguez / G. Gomez |
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