(1) Black Onyx (50-1 ML Odds) — Winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, which is the path that Animal Kingdom took to win the Kentucky Derby two years ago. He’s going to go off at long odds —at least 35/1, perhaps around 50/1 — and in terms of chances to win, that’s probably fair. Black Onyx hasn’t beaten much of anyone on his path to the Derby; his speed figures are lower than almost the entire rest of the group; and his best efforts have come on grass and synthetic surfaces.
All that being said, there is a lot to like about this horse, especially going forward. His sire Rock Hard Ten developed slowly, and it’s reasonable to think Black Onyx is going to continue improving longer into his three year old season than some of his more precocious rivals. His closing fractions in the Spiral were disappointing, but he did win that race comfortably, and he has shown a better turn of foot at the end of races when necessary. The breeding suggests that his best work is going to come at longer distances. Six weeks of rest should help, too.
I don’t think Black Onyx will win — he’s simply too far behind his peers at this stretch — but I do think he can plod home for third or even second, and he’s not nearly as hopeless as the final odds will suggest. I will be using him in exactas and trifectas throughout my tickets. Regardless of what happens on Saturday, Black Onyx is certainly one to watch later this summer; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on turf soon. If you want a lottery-ticket horse, I think this should be your choice.
ADDED NOTE: I wrote this before Black Onyx got the one post, which is indisputably the worst place to be in the Derby. This is potentially a big, big problem. That being said, I’m still using him.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — They don’t make horses like they used to. Before there was a Spiral Stakes or a Turfway Park, there was a Latonia Derby and Latonia Race Track, which — like Turfway Park — was located a few miles south of Cincinnati. The 1936 winner of the Latonia Derby, Rushaway, was also the winner of that year’s Illinois Derby in Chicago. The 1936 Illinois and Latonia Derbies were run only one day apart.
(2) Oxbow (30-1 ML Odds) — Impressive winner of the Lecomte, but the best that he has managed since that 11-length victory in January was a narrow second to Will Take Charge in the Rebel. He faced some traffic trouble in recent efforts, however, so it might be reasonable to excuse the disappointing fourth (by only a half-length) in the Risen Star Stakes. It’s a bit harder to excuse the awful effort in the Arkansas Derby, but after the awful break he probably never had a chance.
Distance is undoubtedly a concern. But assume Oxbow breaks well. Also assume that the pace is soft and that he is reasonably close to the front. Finally, assume that he doesn’t have too much traffic trouble from the second post (early speed will help). Even with all that, it’s tough to see Oxbow running better than Verrazano, Goldencents, and Itsmyluckyday (all of whom would also benefit from the soft pace). But could he get past a couple of them for second or third? Sure. I don’t see a road to victory for Oxbow without major, unexpected improvement from him, but I can see him hitting the board.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — There will be lots of handwringing this year — as there is every year — about there being no triple crown winner since 1978. But that’s not exactly true. No horse has won the triple crown since 1978, but Oxbow’s trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, won the triple crown as recently as 1995. His Thunder Gulch won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but Thunder Gulch was upset by Timber Country in the Preakness. Luckily for Lukas, he trained Timber Country, too.
(3) Revolutionary (10-1 ML Odds) — Winner of the Louisiana Derby and the Withers Stakes, each by a neck. It took Revolutionary four tries to break his maiden — he lost to Orb in the third effort — but he finally burst through with a commanding win in late December at Aqueduct. Revolutionary followed up that effort with a win in the Withers against a relatively weak field. His Louisiana Derby victory was either professional (if you are optimistically inclined) or underwhelming (if you’re not).
I think Revolutionary is a cut below the other major contenders. Much has been made of his traffic trouble in the Withers, but I saw a horse who had a relatively easy go of things from near the rail and still needed every step to get past some underwhelming performers. Ditto the Louisiana Derby, where he had to swing wide to get by, but had an easy go of things around the first turn and a much easier trip than Mylute, who he was all out to beat. I don’t think the third post hurts him — Calvin Borel is going to want to get him to the rail anyway — but he’s going to have to fight a hell of a lot of traffic in the last quarter mile to win this. Even if he is the best horse — and I don’t think he is — circumstances could intercede. Revolutionary could win this, but I’m betting against.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Horse names aren’t absolutely unique; the Jockey Club allows for names to get repeated every ten years (although Hall of Fame horses and classic-race winners have their names retired forever). Revolutionary is the most repeated name of any horse in the Derby this year, with this year’s Revolutionary being the ninth horse to bear that name (the third in America).
(4) Golden Soul (30-1 ML Odds) — Second in the LeComte, though that loss came by over 11 lengths of Oxbow. That I’m leading with an 11-length loss probably tells you all you need to know about Golden Soul. He’s a one-run closer who is very likely to be at the very back of the pack after the first half-mile. For that reason, there’s a pretty good chance that Golden Soul will finish better than his odds — he might be the 18th-longest shot on Saturday, but he’ll likely pass some tired horses late and finish 12th or so. They don’t have bets for 12th place, though, so I’d stay away from this one.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Golden Soul has only won one race thus far in his career. That’s concerning, of course, but he wouldn’t be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby with only one prior victory. In fact, three horses “broke their maiden” (that is, won their first race) in the Kentucky Derby, including Sir Barton in 1919. Sir Barton would win the Preakness Stakes four days later(!), win the Withers Stakes in New York a couple of weeks after that, and then win the Belmont Stakes about a week after that. In other words, not only did Sir Barton win the Triple Crown — he was actually the first Triple Crown winner, although no one recognized the accomplishment as such yet — but he managed a fourth win in a stakes race during the 32-day stretch as well.
(5) Normandy Invasion (12-1 ML Odds) — Winner of one out of five races in his career, but that’s not exactly fair; a bad started in the Risen Star Stakes compromised any chance of a good showing there, and he was bumped at the start of the Wood Memorial yet responded with a very favorable showing in that race. Distance doesn’t figure to be an obstacle, as he’s finished with some reasonable closing fractions, and the breeding is strong. The question is simply this: is Normandy Invasion a horse who creates his own problems, or is he a horse who has simply run into some bad luck?
My guess — or at least my hope — is the latter. This feels like a less wide-open Derby than usual, and Normandy Invasion might be the best chance to score at a double-digit price (if he indeed goes off that low; I’m expecting 8-1 or so though hoping for better). I’m not sure he’s the best horse in the field, but in my opinion he’s the best value, and he figures heavily into my wagers.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — It’s not terribly surprising that thoroughbred owners tend towards aggressive, fearsome names. The Blood-Horse magazine — which itself is a metal-as-f*** name for a magazine — put out their list of the top 100 horses of the 20th century a while back. On that list you’ll find the likes of Man o’ War, War Admiral, Bold Ruler (of whom Normandy Invasion is a direct descendant), Assault, Armed, and my personal favorite, Exterminator. And Normandy Invasion, after all, continues on in this fashion. Of course, there are exceptions to this aggressive naming convention. Take, for example, Normandy Invasion’s great-great-grandmother, who was given the unfortunate name of Gay Fairy.
(6) Mylute (15-1 ML Odds) — Second in the Louisiana Derby to Revolutionary. Your opinion of Mylute likely depends upon your opinion of Revolutionary; if you like the latter, you likely give Mylute a fighting chance to at least hit the board and perhaps win. His weak effort in the Risen Star Stakes speaks very poorly of him, but you could perhaps make the case that he needed the race after the short layoff following his two-year-old year.
I’m not inclined to be so generous. I see a closer with a curious lack of closing kick. Mylute has failed to gain on the leader at the second-to-final call in all but one of his races over a mile. The one exception was a romp in an allowance race last December which he won by 10 lengths, but his final fractions in that one were still only pedestrian; he was simply facing a crappy group (though one of the horses in that race would later hit the board in the Lexington Stakes).
Which is what makes his effort in the Louisiana Derby so perplexing. Mylute just missed against Revolutionary with an arguably tougher trip. I think this tends to discredit Revolutionary more than credit Mylute, but reasonable minds can differ on this. One of my leaps this year is to downgrade both Revolutionary and Mylute based on their efforts in Louisiana. If I’m wrong, it will likely spell doom to my chances of cashing, as I will have misjudged Mylute and Revolutionary. But you have to take chances in this game.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — A female jockey has never won the Kentucky Derby; Rosie Napravnik aboard Mylute will attempt to become the first. Although the gender barrier still stands, the color barrier fell long ago. Indeed, the color barrier fell at the very first Kentucky Derby in 1875, when black jockey Oliver Lewis rode Aristides for trainer (and former slave) Ansel Williamson. (Goldencents’s jockey, Kevin Krigger, is trying to become the first African-American jockey since 1902).
(7) Giant Finish (50-1 ML Odds) — Last-second edition to the Derby lineup. I … I’ve got nothing. He finished third in the Spiral Stakes. He was bred in New York. He’ll likely add a tiny bit of speed, but stamina is an issue. He hasn’t been training with the Derby in mind, and the owner is just throwing wild, directionless haymakers in entering him. Pure bet against.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Eff you owner Andrew Cohen. I have a one-day deadline to come up with something interesting for your no-chance horse, and half of that one day is going to be spent in court. So you get nothing, jerk.
(8) Goldencents (5-1 ML Odds) — The best horse in the field in my opinion, although the question is very close. His effort in the Santa Anita Derby was, in my opinion, the best individual effort of any horse in any prep this season; after turning in a first mile that would have been sufficient to win most mile stakes races, Goldencents finished the Santa Anita Derby with a very respectable 13-second final furlong. His effort in the San Felipe, where he finished a disappointing fourth, can be excused (with one caveat, discussed below); he was simply caught too close to the front with suicidal fractions and burned up.
That being said, the fractions in the Derby are never slow; I think this year’s edition will be a bit softer up front than usual, but that is still going to be pretty quick. Goldencents has needed to be at or very near the front in every race he has run. A little bit of patience would work wonders here, and if he can rate even the slightest bit and conserve some of his speed for the final quarter mile, Goldencents will be formidable. But can he rate in any meaningful sense? That is still an open question.
For all my optimism about Goldencents, I think this is a horse you should avoid betting to win. Doug O’Neill, trainer of last year’s winner I’ll Have Another, is also Goldencents’s trainer, and I suspect some unwarranted money will be bet on that angle alone. So too will unwarranted money be bet on Goldencents because one of his owners is Louisville men’s basketball head coach (and recent championship winner) Rick Pitino. The sorts of people who would bet on Goldencents because he is owned by Rick Pitino are the sorts of people who aren’t betting exactas or trifectas, so in my opinion, that’s the place you want to be if you think Goldencents is the horse to beat. I like this one a lot and will be using him — but, as I suggested, I will be sticking to the exotic pools.
One final caution: Doug O’Neill won last year with a largely untested jockey, Mario Gutierrez, who gave I’ll Have Another an absolutely tremendous ride from the 19th gate. This year, O’Neill is returning with another largely untested jockey, this time Kevin Krigger. I worry about that; Gutierrez did a tremendous job last season, but the top jockeys are often the top jockeys for a reason. I don’t think Krigger is a huge concern, but he is a minor one.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Between the Pitino-ownership angle, the African-American jockey angle, and the Doug-O’Neill-going-for-consecutive-Derbies angle, the cup runneth over on tidbitable material. Let’s try this one: Goldencents has earned $1.25 million for his owners thus far, just behind Lines of Battle for the most earnings amongst Derby participants. He’s also one of the cheapest horses in the field; his sire, Into Mischief, stands at stud for only $10,000, and Goldencents was sold last year for only $62,000. Not a bad return on investment.
(9) Overanalyze (15-1 ML Odds) — Winner of the Arkansas Derby. Overanalyze is an expensive horse who was put on the Derby track from the very beginning, breaking his maiden at Saratoga, then running in most of the traditional major east coast juvenile races. He’s run only twice as a three year old. His first out in the Gotham was a tremendous disappointment; he got taken a bit wide around the first turn but really had no excuse for the clunker other than that he might have needed the race after a three-month layoff. His Arkansas Derby was very impressive visually, but those horses were crawling in the middle; the final quarter of the first mile of that race took almost 27 seconds, which is fast if you are trotting with a harness attached to your ass. Overanalyze only looked to be surging because the other horses stopped running.
He’s won twice at 9 furlongs, which is more than any other horse in the field can say, but that’s not a sure-fire sign that he can handle the 10 furlongs of the Derby. His struggles running up front with anything faster than a crawling pace suggests that either distance is indeed going to be a problem, or he’s not going to be able to go fast enough early on to be in contention late. I don’t trust him here.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Overanalyze has old blood. If you follow his mail-tale line back to his great-great-great grandfather, you arrive at Nearco, who was born in 1935. Compare that with Overanalyze’s Gotham Stakes rival Vyjack, whose great-great-great grandfather Storm Bird was born way back in … 1978. In fact, Storm Bird is so young that Nearco is his patrilineal great-grandfather.
(10) Palace Malice (20-1 ML Odds) — Second in the Bluegrass Stakes. Palace Malice has been competitive in every race save one (the Louisiana Derby, in which he finished seventh and lost by seven lengths). That being said, he’s also lost all but one race, including an ordinary allowance race and the disappointing Risen Star.
Palace Malice is not a bad horse. In fact, he’s right in that range where, with reasonable improvement, he could be in the thick of things. I have no particular reason to expect that kind of improvement, but it wouldn’t be shocking, either. In a race that feels utterly starved of horses in the 12-1 to 25-1 range with a plausible chance, Palace Malice seems like the best choice, especially with Vyjack stuck in the 20 post.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Todd Pletcher has five starters in the Derby this year: Revolutionary, Verrazano, Overanalyze, Palace Malice, and Charming Kitten. This isn’t uncharted territory for Pletcher; he had five starters in 2007 as well. No doubt Pletcher is hoping for a little more luck this year — his best entrant in 2007 finished 6th, and his horses ran last and third-to-last that year.
(11) Lines of Battle (30-1 ML Odds) — The latest in a long line of foreign horses that have earned their place in the Derby by winning the UAE Derby in the United Arab Emirates. The horses coming out of that race are maddeningly difficult to handicap; they are running on a synthetic surface, halfway around the world, against competition that is four or five degrees of separation removed from their Derby rivals.
Almost all of these UAE horses have flopped, and there’s good reason to think Lines of Battle will flop as well. The final time of the UAE Derby stunk; the UAE World Cup, which is half a furlong longer, was only two seconds slower. He has never raced on dirt. His one race in America was a complete flop. There’s not much to like here; a complete toss for me.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Lines of Battle’s grandfather, Northern Dancer, is also one of his his great-great-great grandfathers. It isn’t unusual to see the same ancestor pop up twice in a horse’s pedigree — the modern thoroughbred is only slightly less inbred than the Spanish Habsburgs — but it is a bit unusual to see an ancestor appear twice at such distant points in the ancestry.
(12) Itsmyluckyday (15-1 ML Odds) — The working man’s horse, at least comparatively speaking. Itsmyluckyday will be making his 11th start in the Derby, more than any other horse in the field (Oxbow and Mylute will be making start number 10; no other starter will be above
. Itsmyluckyday is also of somewhat humbler origins than many in the rest of the field, having been bred for only $25,000, purchased for “only” $110,000 as a two year old, and started in 4.5 furlong mini-sprints at Monmouth. By the end of his two-year-old season, Itsmyluckyday had won three races, including two overnight stakes, but there was nothing to indicate that this would be anything more than your better-than-average two year old.
But on January 1, the official birthdate of all North American horses, Itsmyluckyday ran out of his skin in an overnight stakes race at Gulfstream (a few races after Verrazano ran out of his skin at Gulfstream). Itsmyluckyday followed up that effort with an even more impressive effort in the Holy Bull Stakes. His second-place effort in the Florida Derby was a disappointment, but his three-year-old campaign to date has been a stellar one.
I started out wanting to like Itsmyluckyday, but the more I look, the more I find myself pulling back. His final furlong in the Florida Derby was run in about 14 seconds, suggesting that he may have serious problems handling the distance of the Derby. The breeding is solid but unspectacular; his trainer, Eddie Plesa Jr., is competent but not accustomed to this big of a stage; ditto his jockey Elvis Trujillo. I think Itsmyluckyday may end up as a solid miler, but I don’t trust him here. I am tossing entirely, although with some hesitance.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — The Jockey Club sets the rules for the naming of horses in this country. Among the rules is that names cannot be longer than 18 characters, which leads to run-on names like “Itsmyluckyday” (although the decision to run together the name makes little sense here, since “It’s My Lucky Day” is 17 characters). No horse with a run-on name has ever won the Derby, so Itsmyluckyday obviously starts the race with the heavy hand of history against him. Along with setting rules, the Jockey Club screens horses for dirty names, because if they didn’t, jerks like me would name their horses all manner of profanities. Of course, the Jockey Club isn’t infallible, and sometimes they let a naughty name slip through. Like, for instance, Hip Four Sixtynine, who ran in the Lexington Stakes a couple of weeks ago. It’s only a matter of time until we have a Kentucky Derby winner with a name that is an explicit reference to oral sex (I should point out that there was a Derby winner named Tomy Lee).
(13) Falling Sky (50-1 ML Odds) — Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. There’s a pretty good chance that Falling Sky will be the leading horse at the first call this year. Unfortunately, distance is likely going to be an insurmountable problem for him; he had to hang on for dear life in the 8.5-furlong Sam F. Davis, and he faded badly in the 9-furlong Arkansas Derby. The extra furlong in the Derby is highly unlikely to do him any good. I’d be shocked to see Falling Sky hit the board or even finish in the front half of the pack.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Sam F. Davis has a connection to my other favorite sport — he was the quarterback and captain of the 1933 Florida Gators. That was the first year of the Southeastern Conference, and only the fourth year at Florida’s Ben Hill Grifin Stadium (then known as Florida Field). How different was college football back then? Well, Tulane won the SEC championship in 1934.
(14) Verrazano (4-1 ML Odds) — One of three potential favorites. It is tough to quibble with an undefeated record, especially when one of those victories comes by 16 lengths, but there are concerns here. Distance may be a problem; the final times (outside of the outstanding allowance race he won by 16 lengths) have been good but not great; he did not run as a two year old and hopes to be the first horse to win without running at 2 since Apollo in 1882; Todd Pletcher has had an awful run in Kentucky in general and the Derby in particular, although his horses did run 1-2 in the Derby Trial at Churchill last Saturday.
That’s not to say that Verrazano cannot win. If he the favorite, it will be with reason. Moreover, from the commentary I have read over the past couple of weeks, I suspect that Verrazano might be becoming underrated. This is an undefeated horse, after all, trained by arguably the top trainer in America, ridden by the top jockey in America in Johnny Velazquez. That is formidable and should be respected. Nevertheless, there are weaknesses here, starting with distance worries and immaturity. Among the top five contenders — Verrazano, Orb, Goldencents, Revolutionary, and Normandy Invasion — the race is wide open. I’d rather get one of those five at 12-1 than 4-1.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Giovanni da Verrazzano was the first European to explore the area around what would someday become New York City. Verrazzano sailed for the French, but neither the Italians nor the French remained in the area, and New York would remain unpopulated (by Europeans) until explored by Henry Hudson about 8 decades later. Hudson got the Hudson River named after him, while Verrazzano got nothing until Italian immigrants started protesting. Eventually they got the bridge connecting Staten Island and Brooklyn named for Verrazzano, but confusion over the spelling led to the omission of the second “z” from the name. Verrazano the horse is named after Verrazano the bridge, not Verrazzano the explorer. Appropriately, his greatest accomplishment to date — his victory in the Wood Memorial — came just twenty miles away from that bridge.
(15) Charming Kitten (20-1 ML Odds) — Will be competing for the longest odds in the Derby (author’s note: the morning line has Charming Kitten as 20-1, which is ridiculous in my opinion). Charming Kitten has not yet run on natural dirt; all seven of his previous starts have come on grass or synthetic surfaces. He’s certainly a router — he’s never been entered in a race shorter than one mile — which will help, but routes on grass tend to be less taxing than routes in dirt, as horses set softer fractions on grass. Accordingly, I’m not sure that the grass and synthetic stamina will hold up here. Even if it does, it will probably manifest itself in, say, a 7th-place showing rather than a 16th-place showing. He simply isn’t good enough against this group here, and his training has reportedly been abysmal. Easily the weakest of the Todd Pletcher entries.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Charming Kitten is one of three kitten horses to run in the past five years (plus a cat and a lion; we also had an “ekati” six years ago). We haven’t had a “cat” or “kitten” Derby winner yet, though we did have Gato Del Sol in 1982 and Whiskery in 1927.
(16) Orb (7-2 ML Odds) — Winner of the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Orb is one of three horses with a legitimate chance to be the favorite this year (the other two are Verrazano and Goldencents). I expect all three to be in the 5-1 to 7-1 range, and I suspect that Orb will be the one to go off as the slight favorite when the gates open on Saturday. That favoritism would be deserved; Orb’s efforts in those two races were as impressive as any horse’s efforts in any race this season. His Florida Derby in particular was visually impressive, and the final fractions suggest that his has both the stamina and the turn of foot to succeed. The breeding is plenty impressive. Finally, he’s shown a wonderful ability to adapt to pace conditions, hanging near the front in the slow Florida Derby and proving willing to hang back in faster races. There’s little not to like.
I have two general reservations. First, although Orb has shown an ability to adapt, he doesn’t want to be placed too far forward at the beginning, meaning that he is susceptible to traffic trouble in the 20-horse field. This isn’t a knock on Orb in particular — lots of horses will face the same problem — but it is an issue that the other two favorites will likely not have to overcome, since they will be closer to the front. Second, none of his races have come up particularly fast. His Florida Derby certainly looked good, but his final time in that race was only good, not great. His Fountain of Youth win came up 11 lengths slower than filly Dreaming of Julia’s effort at the same distance on the same day at the same track. Many in the field have had individual races more impressive than any that Orb has fired thus far. I think Orb still needs to show a little bit of improvement off his last to win this, but he is in fine position to do so, and the added distance will hurt his chances less than most. Orb is a very viable contender; I like him a bit better than Verrazano, though less than Goldencents. 7-2 is way too low; I’d need at least 6-1 to even consider betting him to win.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Only one other horse with a name of three letters or less has ever won the Kentucky Derby — Zev in 1923. Zev’s owner, Harry Sinclair, would be indicted four years after Zev’s victory for his role in the Teapot Dome scandal, getting held in contempt of court in the process for hiring private investigators to follow jury members.
(17) Will Take Charge (20-1 ML Odds) — Winner of the Rebel and Smarty Jones at Oaklawn, the former being his last race at seven weeks ago. The effort in the Rebel was visually satisfying, but he received a near-perfect set-up, and the final time was nothing to get too excited about. The horses than came back to run in the Arkansas Derby didn’t cover themselves in glory, suggesting the Oaklawn group may have been a weak bunch this spring. The Rebel is 3/16ths of a mile shorter than the Derby, so distance is a question; breeding suggests that the added distance might be a struggle. Ran once at Churchill Downs as a two year old and barely lifted a foot, finishing last behind 12 other horses in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November.
He hated the slop in the Southwest Stakes and should be tossed immediately if the track is wet. I’m inclined to toss him if the track is dry, too; I think the distance is simply too much to overcome, and for a horse sired by a stallion with a reputation for turning out fast-developing offspring, Will Take Charge hasn’t really turned in an outstanding performance yet. It might be a bit late in the game for Will Take Charge to step forward enough to win this one.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Will Take Charge is one of two Derby participants whose dam was more accomplished than his sire (Revolutionary is the second). The father, Unbridled’s Song, was a precocious three year old who won the Wood Memorial and Florida Derby before finishing a disappointing sixth as the Kentucky Derby favorite in 1996; he battled injuries for the rest of his career. The mother, Take Charge Lady, had a racing career stretching over three seasons, including 11 wins and 7 places in 22 races with just under $2.5 million in earnings.
(18) Frac Daddy (50-1 ML Odds) — Until this year, horses earned their place into the Derby through earning money in graded stakes races. The system worked reasonably well, but because “graded stakes race” included lots of races that had no relation to success in the Derby (races on grass; races early in the two year old year; short sprints), a few horses got into the race each year with little chance of winning. Maybe the seminal example was Trinniberg last year, a phenomenal sprinter (he’d go on to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint) who could never be expected to last 10 furlongs. These types did more than take up space; lots of people blamed Bodemeister’s loss last year on Trinniberg and the fast fractions he forced. This year, Churchill Downs has switched to a points system, in which two dozen or so races are assigned a points value and the twenty horses with the most points earn entry to the Derby. Because only a relative few races count for the Derby, and because those races are mostly routes on dirt, the horses in this field are generally more deserving 1 through 20 than in years passed.
I say “generally” because every field will have its weaklings, and this year, one of those weaklings is Frac Daddy. A winner of one race in six tries, Frac Daddy earned his place in the Derby through a couple of well-placed seconds, neither of which was terribly impressive but which nevertheless earned the points. There is nothing to indicate this one has a legitimate chance, but fortunately, unlike years past, Frac Daddy likely won’t interfere with the chances of any of the others in the field.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — As the name betrays, Frac Daddy is owned by a pair of men in the oil business. The two men — Carter Stewart and Ken Schlenker — formed Magic City Thoroughbred Partners a couple of years ago, bought a few horses, and began as most beginning horse owners do: with little success. That is, until a horse named Golden Ticket won the Travers Stakes at Saratoga for them last year at 33-1 odds (technically it was a dead heat victory, but a victory just the same). This year, the men take one of their 15 or so horses to the Kentucky Derby. Easy game, huh fellas?
(19) Java’s War (15-1 ML Odds) — Winner of the Bluegrass Stakes, a race that has declined in significance since Keeneland switched to a synthetic surface in 2006. Java’s War has only run twice on dirt, with wildly divergent results. His first attempt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was an unmitigated disaster (this is especially troublesome because the KJCS is run at Churchill, suggesting that he dislikes the surface at Churchill). His effort in the Tampa Bay Derby was much improved, but he was still a three-length loser to Verrazano in that one.
He’s a one-run dead closer—there’s a very reasonable chance that he will be in last place at some point early in the race—and he’s going to need the horses in front of him to tire to have any chance. I expect the pace to be slower than usual this year, but even if it were lightning fast, I think a couple of others — Revolutionary, for example — are better placed to pick up the pieces. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get up for third or fourth, but I would be surprised. Java’s War might not be a complete toss — I haven’t made up my mind yet, though I’m leaning towards not using him — but he’s certainly not a contender to win.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — Java War’s sire, War Pass, went to stud in 2009. That means his first foals were born in 2010, making those foals three years old this season (and thus eligible for the Derby). 27 male American War Pass foals born in 2010 have been registered, and two of those foals — Java’s War and brother-from-a-different-mother Revolutionary — are running in this year’s Derby. Two out of twenty-seven is pretty darn good. Unfortunately, next season will be our last chance to see any offspring of War Pass in the Derby; he passed away suddenly at the age of five after only two years at stud.
(20) Vyjack (15-1 ML Odds) — Winner of four in five starts, including victories in the Jerome and Gotham Stakes in New York. His one defeat was a game one-length loss in the Wood Memorial behind probable Derby favorite Verrazano and plausible contender Normandy Invasion. Vyjack has shown a great deal of versatility in winning those races; his victory in the Jerome Stakes came from the front of the field, while his victory in the Gotham came from the back of the field. That versatility will serve him well in the Derby.
I like Vyjack better than most of the other horses likely to be in the 15-1 or 20-1 range, but I doubt a win is possible here. His previous efforts have all been fine, but just that — fine. The only Derby contender he has beaten in any of his five races is Overanalyze in the Gotham, but Overanalyze comes with question marks of his own. There was no shame in the one-length loss in the Wood, but he was defeated both from in front (by Verrazano) and from behind (by Normandy Invasion), which is troublesome. He’s never had traveled away from New York or run at a track other than Aqueduct. His rider in the Wood and Gotham, Joel Rosario, chose to ride Orb instead in the Derby. And the 20 post certainly isn’t going to help. Vyjack feels like a horse that is destined for 9th place.
Bonus tidbit interesting only to me — The Jerome Stakes is actually older than the Kentucky Derby by nine years, although unlike the Derby, the Jerome Stakes has been skipped a few times during its existence. Both the race and the track where it was originally held — Jerome Park — were named for New York mogul Leonard Jerome. Leonard Jerome’s daughter, Jennie Jerome, was married thrice. Her first husband was Lord Randolph Churchill, and that marriage produced two children, the eldest of which was Winston Churchill.
***
And finally, my selections. I set my budget at $150 this year. Unfortunately, I’m going to go a bit over at $165, but I got close.
As always with big races, my goal is to give myself a chance at a big score while preserving a few hedges in case I am reasonably close to correct. I will be leaning very heavily on Normandy Invasion, but I can win money even if Normandy Invasion runs out of the money. Caveat reader: My record in the Kentucky Derby is horrendous — it is the one major race (along with the Belmont Stakes) that seems to have completely eluded me over the years. Hopefully I can buck that trend this year.
If you are in Illinois, the easiest way to bet the races is to head to your local off-track betting facility. You can find your closest location here:
http://www.illinoisotb.com/locations/.
If you are outside of Illinois, your state likely allows for online betting. There are a number of options for this, but the easiest I’ve found is through xpressbet.com. Sign-up is easy, and you can make a deposit through any bank account. Collecting is easy too. As an added enticement, Xpressbet is running a promotion in which if you open a new account and bet $100, you get an additional $125 in wagering credit the next day. (Note: You cannot bet online in Illinois — thanks Governor Quinn! Heck of a job you are doing!)
Without further ado, my bets:
Win Bets:
$20 to win on Normandy Invasion
$5 to win on Black Onyx
Exacta Bets ( / separates placings):
$10 Normandy Invasion / Black Onyx – Goldencents – Orb
$5 Normandy Invasion / Verrazano
$2 Normandy Invasion / Revolutionary – Itsmyluckyday – Oxbow – Overanalyze – Will Take Charge
$5 Goldencents – Orb – Verrazano / Normandy Invasion
$2 Black Onyx / Normandy Invasion – Orb
$2 Verrazano – Orb – Goldencents – Black Onyx (Box)
Trifecta Bets:
$2 Normandy Invasion / Orb – Goldencents – Verrazano – Black Onyx / Orb – Goldencents – Verrazano – Black Onyx
$1 Normandy Invasion / Orb – Black Onyx / Orb – Black Onyx – Verrazano – Goldencents – Revolutionary – Itsmyluckyday
$.50 Normandy Invasion / Orb – Goldencents / Orb – Goldencents – Verrazano – Revolutionary – Itsmyluckyday – Java’s War – Overanalyze – Mylute – Oxbow – Black Onyx – Vyjack
$.50 Orb – Goldencents / Orb – Goldencents – Normandy Invasion – Black Onyx / Orb – Goldencents – Normandy Invasion – Black Onyx
Thanks for reading, and good luck on Saturday.
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who in the hell taught you to bet? You're at the least going to lose $40 right off the get go.The Derby has never had a dead heat so 3 picks will be LOSERS.Why don't you bet $100 to win on everything ?????
It was looking good until near the end.