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NCAA - Week 2
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Author:  Chus [ Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:28 pm ]
Post subject:  NCAA - Week 2
9-2 +6.80

Central Florida -24 (-110)
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
5-4 +2.3

Cincinnatti -8 2* L
Oregon -22 3* W
Navy +13 2* W
BYU +7 1* W
ND +3.5 1* L
Minnesota -16.5 1* W
USC -15 1* L

4-3 +2.6

9-7 +4.9
Author:  My_name_1s_MUD [ Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
Ok... edu-ma-cate me. What do the initial numbers mean? And the asterisks?
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
Plus numbers indicate a team is the underdog and therefore a bettor is being given that amount of points to encourage taking the side. Obviously the minus is the opposite and for a favorite. If the difference in the final score falls beneath that number the person betting the underdog wins and vice versa for people playing the favorite.

The number with the asterisk is the personal value I place on the prediction with 1 being the baseline and higher numbers indicating greater confidence in my predicted outcome.

When I write Oregon -22 3* I am saying that I think Oregon will win by more than 22 points and I have fairly high confidence in the play. In terms of money, if I normally make a $1 wager, I would be making a $3 on this play.

The bolded numbers at the top of my post is my record. 5-4 is W/L, +2.3 indicates I have won $2.3 for every $1 played so far. The reason for the decimal is that for an accurate indication of dollars won, you should factor in 10% additional your parimutual wager facilitator charges on losses (none on wins). 10% is not accurate as it may be a little more or less depending on the play, but its close enough. It is important to remember that 10% if you are a new player as if you are making equal $1 wagers for every play, you have to exceed 55% W/L in order to make a profit.

So, if I was 5-4 with each play being $1 I would win $5 and lose $4.4 resulting in a $.6 profit. However since some plays are rated with a higher * number, the profit has been greater.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
good dolphin wrote:

The bolded numbers at the top of my post is my record. 5-4 is W/L, +2.3 indicates I have won $2.3 for every $1 played so far. The reason for the decimal is that for an accurate indication of dollars won, you should factor in 10% additional your parimutual wager facilitator charges on losses (none on wins). 10% is not accurate as it may be a little more or less depending on the play, but its close enough. It is important to remember that 10% if you are a new player as if you are making equal $1 wagers for every play, you have to exceed 55% W/L in order to make a profit.



If all bets are -110, then you must hit 52.38% (11 out of 21) to break even. 55% is a tremendous season, especially when betting the NFL, where the lines are razor sharp, and get sharper as the season progresses. Anybody who claims to hit higher than 57%-58% long term, is most likely lying.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
9-2 +6.80

Central Florida -24 (-110)
Penn State -24 (-110)
Author:  Chus [ Sat Sep 07, 2013 8:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
9-2 +6.80

Central Florida -24 (-110) W
Penn State -24 (-110)
Duke/Memphis over 53.5 (-110)
Author:  Chus [ Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
9-2 +6.80

Central Florida -24 (-110) W
Penn State -24 (-110)
Duke/Memphis over 53.5 (-110)
San Diego State +28 (-110)
Author:  Chus [ Mon Sep 09, 2013 10:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NCAA - Week 2
Chus wrote:
9-2 +6.80

Central Florida -24 (-110) W
Penn State -24 (-110) W
Duke/Memphis over 53.5 (-110) L
San Diego State +28 (-110) L


week 2: 2-2 -0.20
ytd: 11-4 +6.60
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