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| Betting on totals in Bear weather https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=8173 |
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| Author: | Spinnin' Bucket [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Betting on totals in Bear weather |
An interesting little table, courtesy of www.professionalgambler.com Month over under under % September 399 461 52.60 % October 418 473 53.09 % November 446 491 52.40 % December 401 370 47.99 % The point being made here is that bettors react too strongly to the cold winter weather, expecting most games to come in under the total. Oddsmakers account for this bias, and December wagers witness a switch in value from the under to the over. These numbers are taken from a 16 year period, between 1983 and 1999. Also, FYI, professionalgambler.com = above average literature, below average picks |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Good data, Bucket. Thanks. And as many bettors absorb the snow and cold and the fact we have a dome team playing in weather this Sunday in Soldier Field, I expect the total on the Vikings game to drop and the Bears spread to rise above 10. If you like da Bears, I'd buy it now. IF you want to go contrarian and play over, I'd wait. |
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| Author: | Spinnin' Bucket [ Sat Dec 02, 2006 5:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
I didn't mean to apply it solely to Bears games, just a sarcastic thread title with all of the "Bear weather" talk that comes about this time of year. Not touching the total on this one, but for the 3rd straight week I will likely be making a prop bet against Rex. Two weeks ago, the o/u on his completions was 19.5 (under at -115). Last week, yardage at 219.5 (under at EV). |
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