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I think Denver will win. No way the nfl lets manning lose. It's been decided.

Numbers pointed to Seattle winning before this game hit the board.

Seattle opened as a 2-point favorite and was adjusted to a 1-point underdog. Station Casinos posted the highest line on Denver at minus-2½.

The public bet Denver into the role as fave.

The Public was 1-3 this weekend in Games and O/U

Vegas doesnt guess. They set a line based off equations set way beyond the game finishing.

The Seat -2.5 line over Denv was out there way before both games finished. As NFc over AFC

Some of us got fucked by taking it!

Regardless vegas sets it then adjusts it to balance the money.

I would love to have Seattle plus !!!!!!!!!! Look at how SD controlled Denv. Of course they didnt stop them.

Peyton throws some of that weak shit up he has been throwing. Ouch.

Will d thomas be willing to go across the middle.

Everyone is talking about line movements. I see the key to this game being weather, which we will not know until game time.

Seahawks are not the same team away from home. Manning is not the same player in bad conditions.

If it is 40+ degrees without rain/snow or wind, I think Manning puts up low 30s and wins. If it rains, you will get the Manning of playoffs past.

That kind of shows you why a SB outside of warm weather/controlled environment sucks.

I'm considering other things as well. Denver played two playoff teams that aren't even close to the defensive talent that Seattle has. I was unimpressed with that win over SD. And Brady just has no talent around him. Denver beat both of them at home. This Seattle team is a different animal and we have a neutral field.

I'm with Nas. I see this being a double digit loss for the Broncos.

My favorite play is a two play, 6 point teaser.

Seattle + 8 and UNDER 54.

good dolphin wrote:

Seattle is just as great on the road as they are at home. They have gave up 121 points on the road and 110 at home. They also only score 4 more points at home than they do on the road. The Broncos haven't played any great defenses or any truly great teams all season. They had a very easy route to the SB. Peyton Manning didn't even get touched last game. The type of pressure he will see in the SB will frustrate him and force him into making mistakes. They will hit him early and hit him often. The Seahawks only gave up 30 points once this season and I don't see the Broncos doing it again.

The Seahawks absolutely would have lost if this last game were played in SF.

Let's be honest, though. The 49ers vs Seahawks was the true Super Bowl. 49ers would beat Denver by double digits on New York's neutral field as well.

Though Seattle doesn't have a great offense, they're going against a bad Denver defense. Such a break from what they just saw in Frisco. Lynch will go for 180 against Denver. Wilson will have 60 + yards rushing as well. Play action will suck up Denver's defense and Wilson will hit a few big passing plays.

Nas wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

I would argue the Seahawks would have lost each of those playoff games if they were on the road. Are your numbers correct? Look at the average margin of victory: 7.8 on the road and 15.3 at home.

The Saints owned the second half against them and Brees threw for 300 yards in horrible passing conditions. I see no reason the same could not be true for Manning.

[ Besides this game is on a neutral field and will be played in conditions that are favorable to the Seahawks.

Nas wrote:

[ Besides this game is on a neutral field and will be played in conditions that are favorable to the Seahawks.

like I have said all along, this is my biggest factor and one that is not yet available

Beardown wrote:

Broncos D eats up big backs.

good dolphin wrote:

Beardown wrote:

Broncos D eats up big backs.

Who? I'm sure one answer will be Blount. But the Pats were also behind all day. Maybe you'll cite a couple of others. My response will simply be, "They ain't Marshawn Lynch."

Beardown wrote:

good dolphin wrote:

Beardown wrote:

Broncos D eats up big backs.

Who? I'm sure one answer will be Blount. But the Pats were also behind all day. Maybe you'll cite a couple of others. My response will simply be, "They ain't Marshawn Lynch."

Their rushing defensive stats can be explained by the fact they were ahead most of the time against some awful teams. Jamaal Charles averaged 5 ypc in both games and McCoy was at 4.6.

good dolphin wrote:

Beardown wrote:

Broncos D eats up big backs.

Who? I'm sure one answer will be Blount. But the Pats were also behind all day. Maybe you'll cite a couple of others. My response will simply be, "They ain't Marshawn Lynch."

Author:	Kirkwood [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:26 am ]
Post subject:	SUPER BOWL
What's the strategy here? I've seen Denver from -2 to -2.5 with varying vigs. I'm going Seahawks ML just a matter of what odds I can get. Do you lock in number you like now or wait until closer to kick for injuries, weather etc? What do the Billy Walters of CSFMB say?

Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:28 am ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
No way the Seahawks lose

Author:	Spaulding [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:30 am ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
I think Denver will win. No way the nfl lets manning lose. It's been decided.

Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:33 am ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Spaulding wrote: I think Denver will win. No way the nfl lets manning lose. It's been decided. It would be a storybook ending.

Author:	bigfan [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:58 am ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Numbers pointed to Seattle winning before this game hit the board. Seattle opened as a 2-point favorite and was adjusted to a 1-point underdog. Station Casinos posted the highest line on Denver at minus-2½. The public bet Denver into the role as fave. The Public was 1-3 this weekend in Games and O/U

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Author:	Beardown [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:05 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
bigfan wrote: Numbers pointed to Seattle winning before this game hit the board. Seattle opened as a 2-point favorite and was adjusted to a 1-point underdog. Station Casinos posted the highest line on Denver at minus-2½. The public bet Denver into the role as fave. The Public was 1-3 this weekend in Games and O/U Yeah. I read that too. It's weird that in moved that much so quick. Vegas really guessed wrong on how the public would bet.

Author:	bigfan [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Vegas doesnt guess. They set a line based off equations set way beyond the game finishing. The Seat -2.5 line over Denv was out there way before both games finished. As NFc over AFC Some of us got fucked by taking it! Regardless vegas sets it then adjusts it to balance the money. I would love to have Seattle plus !!!!!!!!!! Look at how SD controlled Denv. Of course they didnt stop them. Peyton throws some of that weak shit up he has been throwing. Ouch. Will d thomas be willing to go across the middle.

Author:	Beardown [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
bigfan wrote: Vegas doesnt guess. They set a line based off equations set way beyond the game finishing. The Seat -2.5 line over Denv was out there way before both games finished. As NFc over AFC Some of us got fucked by taking it! Regardless vegas sets it then adjusts it to balance the money. I would love to have Seattle plus !!!!!!!!!! Look at how SD controlled Denv. Of course they didnt stop them. Peyton throws some of that weak shit up he has been throwing. Ouch. Will d thomas be willing to go across the middle. You're right. They do have equations to set lines. I know that. But I've also heard Vegas also takes into consideration what the public likes in how they will bet before they post the opening line. Obviously their goal is to get 50-50 action. So after they get that number from the equations, they should also have realized that America loves Peyton Manning and they love big scoring offensive teams. Also, Seattle Seahawks aren't a favorite team for the public. It's not like the Bears or Cowboys which are always bet on cuz they have Huge fan bases. They didn't. Thus the big change in the line.

Author:	Scorehead [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
I'm on Denver regardless of the spread. I think they could roll up the Score against Seattle.

Author:	Kirkwood [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
bigfan wrote: Vegas doesnt guess. They set a line based off equations set way beyond the game finishing. The Seat -2.5 line over Denv was out there way before both games finished. As NFc over AFC Some of us got fucked by taking it! Regardless vegas sets it then adjusts it to balance the money. I would love to have Seattle plus !!!!!!!!!! Look at how SD controlled Denv. Of course they didnt stop them. Peyton throws some of that weak shit up he has been throwing. Ouch. Will d thomas be willing to go across the middle. My line of thinking as well. Peyton had some very weak throws go unpunished. He wasn't touched at all against NE either. I like the ball control style Hawks play along with banking on injuries to Denver defense catching up to them as well.

Author:	Beardown [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:00 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
And Big Fan is absolutly correct. The Seahawks +2 is the play. I think I've told the story before. My old man taught me this lesson when I was 10 years old. It was after 12 Old Styles as we were watching football. After I ran to the fridge to get him his 13th, he said to me "always bet with the book and against the players." Didn't know what he meant at the time, of course. And he passed out right after he said it so I couldn't ask him. But later on in life, this lesson has helped me. This line should be Seattle -2 based on the Vegas equations. It's now Denver -2 because of the players. Players are stupid. Vegas is smart. 4 points is a HUGE swing. Once it's over 2 points you should be that much more confident to bet against the players.

Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
I think the Seahawks will win by double digits if the weather is bad. Even if the weather is good I believe they will win easily.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Everyone is talking about line movements. I see the key to this game being weather, which we will not know until game time. Seahawks are not the same team away from home. Manning is not the same player in bad conditions. If it is 40+ degrees without rain/snow or wind, I think Manning puts up low 30s and wins. If it rains, you will get the Manning of playoffs past. That kind of shows you why a SB outside of warm weather/controlled environment sucks.

Author:	Beardown [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:21 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
I'm considering other things as well. Denver played two playoff teams that aren't even close to the defensive talent that Seattle has. I was unimpressed with that win over SD. And Brady just has no talent around him. Denver beat both of them at home. This Seattle team is a different animal and we have a neutral field. I'm with Nas. I see this being a double digit loss for the Broncos. My favorite play is a two play, 6 point teaser. Seattle + 8 and UNDER 54.

Author:	Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Uh-oh, weather predictions have taken a bit of a turn - Sunday snow Snow during the morning will give way to a mixture of rain and snow during the afternoon. High 37F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precip 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Sunday Night nt_snow Rain and snow in the evening, becoming all snow late. Low 28F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 70%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. I will defer my selection to the second half.

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Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:40 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
good dolphin wrote: Everyone is talking about line movements. I see the key to this game being weather, which we will not know until game time. Seahawks are not the same team away from home. Manning is not the same player in bad conditions. If it is 40+ degrees without rain/snow or wind, I think Manning puts up low 30s and wins. If it rains, you will get the Manning of playoffs past. That kind of shows you why a SB outside of warm weather/controlled environment sucks. Seattle is just as great on the road as they are at home. They have gave up 121 points on the road and 110 at home. They also only score 4 more points at home than they do on the road. The Broncos haven't played any great defenses or any truly great teams all season. They had a very easy route to the SB. Peyton Manning didn't even get touched last game. The type of pressure he will see in the SB will frustrate him and force him into making mistakes. They will hit him early and hit him often. The Seahawks only gave up 30 points once this season and I don't see the Broncos doing it again.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:45 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Beardown wrote: I'm considering other things as well. Denver played two playoff teams that aren't even close to the defensive talent that Seattle has. I was unimpressed with that win over SD. And Brady just has no talent around him. Denver beat both of them at home. This Seattle team is a different animal and we have a neutral field. I'm with Nas. I see this being a double digit loss for the Broncos. My favorite play is a two play, 6 point teaser. Seattle + 8 and UNDER 54. If you watched the two Denver playoff games you realize the Broncos DOMINATED both of those teams with late scoring by the opponents being window dressing. Strength of schedule is a fairly meaningless consideration in the NFL.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:57 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Nas wrote: good dolphin wrote: Everyone is talking about line movements. I see the key to this game being weather, which we will not know until game time. Seahawks are not the same team away from home. Manning is not the same player in bad conditions. If it is 40+ degrees without rain/snow or wind, I think Manning puts up low 30s and wins. If it rains, you will get the Manning of playoffs past. That kind of shows you why a SB outside of warm weather/controlled environment sucks. Seattle is just as great on the road as they are at home. They have gave up 121 points on the road and 110 at home. They also only score 4 more points at home than they do on the road. The Broncos haven't played any great defenses or any truly great teams all season. They had a very easy route to the SB. Peyton Manning didn't even get touched last game. The type of pressure he will see in the SB will frustrate him and force him into making mistakes. They will hit him early and hit him often. The Seahawks only gave up 30 points once this season and I don't see the Broncos doing it again. I would argue the Seahawks would have lost each of those playoff games if they were on the road. Are your numbers correct? Look at the average margin of victory: 7.8 on the road and 15.3 at home. The Saints owned the second half against them and Brees threw for 300 yards in horrible passing conditions. I see no reason the same could not be true for Manning.

Author:	Beardown [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:05 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
The Seahawks absolutely would have lost if this last game were played in SF. Let's be honest, though. The 49ers vs Seahawks was the true Super Bowl. 49ers would beat Denver by double digits on New York's neutral field as well. Though Seattle doesn't have a great offense, they're going against a bad Denver defense. Such a break from what they just saw in Frisco. Lynch will go for 180 against Denver. Wilson will have 60 + yards rushing as well. Play action will suck up Denver's defense and Wilson will hit a few big passing plays.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:15 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Beardown wrote: The Seahawks absolutely would have lost if this last game were played in SF. Let's be honest, though. The 49ers vs Seahawks was the true Super Bowl. 49ers would beat Denver by double digits on New York's neutral field as well. Though Seattle doesn't have a great offense, they're going against a bad Denver defense. Such a break from what they just saw in Frisco. Lynch will go for 180 against Denver. Wilson will have 60 + yards rushing as well. Play action will suck up Denver's defense and Wilson will hit a few big passing plays. Broncos D eats up big backs. I have not made a play or a decision. Like I said, my play is going to be heavily influenced by weather. I don't mind waiting to take the Seahawks if that ends up being the play. I think if the Seahawks cover, they win, so I will probably take the ML.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:39 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Another significant factor that is yet to be determined is Percy Harvin's availability. I may not get the best number either way. I haven't throughout the playoffs but have done very well

Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:49 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
good dolphin wrote: Nas wrote: good dolphin wrote: Everyone is talking about line movements. I see the key to this game being weather, which we will not know until game time. Seahawks are not the same team away from home. Manning is not the same player in bad conditions. If it is 40+ degrees without rain/snow or wind, I think Manning puts up low 30s and wins. If it rains, you will get the Manning of playoffs past. That kind of shows you why a SB outside of warm weather/controlled environment sucks. Seattle is just as great on the road as they are at home. They have gave up 121 points on the road and 110 at home. They also only score 4 more points at home than they do on the road. The Broncos haven't played any great defenses or any truly great teams all season. They had a very easy route to the SB. Peyton Manning didn't even get touched last game. The type of pressure he will see in the SB will frustrate him and force him into making mistakes. They will hit him early and hit him often. The Seahawks only gave up 30 points once this season and I don't see the Broncos doing it again. I would argue the Seahawks would have lost each of those playoff games if they were on the road. Are your numbers correct? Look at the average margin of victory: 7.8 on the road and 15.3 at home. The Saints owned the second half against them and Brees threw for 300 yards in horrible passing conditions. I see no reason the same could not be true for Manning. By my math the Seahawks scored 233 points (29 a game) at home and gave up 110 (nearly 14 a game). On the road they scored 184 points (23 a game) and gave up 121 (15 a game). Keep in mind in 2 of their home wins they played against the Vikings and Jaguars and put up 41 points in 1 game and 45 in the other. They had 4 road games where they gave up 10 points or less (3 at home) and their only shutout came on the road. Besides this game is on a neutral field and will be played in conditions that are favorable to the Seahawks.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Nas wrote: [ Besides this game is on a neutral field and will be played in conditions that are favorable to the Seahawks. like I have said all along, this is my biggest factor and one that is not yet available

Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:06 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
good dolphin wrote: Nas wrote: [ Besides this game is on a neutral field and will be played in conditions that are favorable to the Seahawks. like I have said all along, this is my biggest factor and one that is not yet available Regardless of snow or rain it's going to be under 40 degrees. The wind and wind chill will likely be a factor too. Honestly I don't think it matters.

Author:	Beardown [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
good dolphin wrote: Beardown wrote: The Seahawks absolutely would have lost if this last game were played in SF. Let's be honest, though. The 49ers vs Seahawks was the true Super Bowl. 49ers would beat Denver by double digits on New York's neutral field as well. Though Seattle doesn't have a great offense, they're going against a bad Denver defense. Such a break from what they just saw in Frisco. Lynch will go for 180 against Denver. Wilson will have 60 + yards rushing as well. Play action will suck up Denver's defense and Wilson will hit a few big passing plays. Broncos D eats up big backs. Who? I'm sure one answer will be Blount. But the Pats were also behind all day. Maybe you'll cite a couple of others. My response will simply be, "They ain't Marshawn Lynch."

Author:	Nas [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Beardown wrote: good dolphin wrote: Beardown wrote: The Seahawks absolutely would have lost if this last game were played in SF. Let's be honest, though. The 49ers vs Seahawks was the true Super Bowl. 49ers would beat Denver by double digits on New York's neutral field as well. Though Seattle doesn't have a great offense, they're going against a bad Denver defense. Such a break from what they just saw in Frisco. Lynch will go for 180 against Denver. Wilson will have 60 + yards rushing as well. Play action will suck up Denver's defense and Wilson will hit a few big passing plays. Broncos D eats up big backs. Who? I'm sure one answer will be Blount. But the Pats were also behind all day. Maybe you'll cite a couple of others. My response will simply be, "They ain't Marshawn Lynch." Their rushing defensive stats can be explained by the fact they were ahead most of the time against some awful teams. Jamaal Charles averaged 5 ypc in both games and McCoy was at 4.6.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:21 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: SUPER BOWL
Nas wrote: Beardown wrote: good dolphin wrote: Beardown wrote: The Seahawks absolutely would have lost if this last game were played in SF. Let's be honest, though. The 49ers vs Seahawks was the true Super Bowl. 49ers would beat Denver by double digits on New York's neutral field as well. Though Seattle doesn't have a great offense, they're going against a bad Denver defense. Such a break from what they just saw in Frisco. Lynch will go for 180 against Denver. Wilson will have 60 + yards rushing as well. Play action will suck up Denver's defense and Wilson will hit a few big passing plays. Broncos D eats up big backs. Who? I'm sure one answer will be Blount. But the Pats were also behind all day. Maybe you'll cite a couple of others. My response will simply be, "They ain't Marshawn Lynch." Their rushing defensive stats can be explained by the fact they were ahead most of the time against some awful teams. Jamaal Charles averaged 5 ypc in both games and McCoy was at 4.6. Charles and Mc Coy are to Lynch as Mathew Mc Conahey is to good dolphin