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Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=84776 |
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Author: | Beardown [ Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:44 pm ] |
Post subject: | Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
That's what people are asking. Action is 70-30 on Denver right now in Vegas. Here's why. The Super Bowl is different than most games where the early money is this wide of a margin. The line shouldn't be Denver -2 to start with. Should be a pick 'em, at least, by all book maker equations. The books know that some late money is gonna come in on Seattle. Cuz they know Seattle people are gonna wait. Line can only go in favor of Seattle bettors at this point. So there is no need to place a bet until game day. Of course, all of the Denver money comes in early cuz the Denver players figured Denver/Manning players would pound it early and they wanted their best line. Vegas is just waiting for the Seattle money to come in. They don't want to give those players the +3 they are looking for when they know their money is coming in anyway. It's still gonna be mostly Denver bet by the public, but it might come down to 60-40 by kickoff. |
Author: | bigfan [ Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:30 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
While I agree the line will grow at game time.....it will be due to more money coming in on Denver due to Manning. I dont think Seattle gets the publics backing. Manning is the Superstar that brings in dumb general money. Denv-2.5 for -120 or -115 at game time. Last year, NFC champ game, SF giving 2.5, the ML kept rising -120, -125, -130....went off at -140....I kept watching it, because I wanted to lay more down at -3 but wasnt paying up for the -2.5.... |
Author: | bigfan [ Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:31 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
how many squares for you beardown? |
Author: | Beardown [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:03 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
bigfan wrote: how many squares for you beardown? No thanks. Bought into a couple other ones already. Gotta bet the game and a few props. Can only do so much Super Bowl investments. |
Author: | reents [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
On Profootballtalk, they made it sound like Beardown said, most people are going Denver and on Friday the Seattle the money will be coming in, already put mine on the Broncos about when it came out at Broncos -1.5 |
Author: | Rod [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:04 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
Mayweather is betting both sides so he can Twitpic the ticket after "winning". |
Author: | Beardown [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:09 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
Still 70% action on Denver. Still 2.5 at all Las Vegas sports books. Still 2.5 at my mafia-run sports book. Maybe us Seattle players won't get our 3. |
Author: | KDdidit [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:11 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
It must have something to do with racism if Beardown started a thread about it |
Author: | bigfan [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:53 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
Still 48 O/U |
Author: | Nas [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:36 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
Take the under and go all in on Seattle. You'll thank me tonight. |
Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:53 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Why isn't the Super Bowl line moving? |
Simple answer is the public is hammering Denver, while the sharps are on Seattle. It's never hard to understand why a line is or isn't moving. The whole idea of the bets being 70-30 in favor of Denver is irrelevant. Total dollars is what moves lines. |
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