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| Super Bowl Prop Bets https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=84786 |
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| Author: | Beardown [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Super Bowl Prop Bets |
What do you like? I'll post mine later. Still thinking about them. But here's some plays from the Nfpost.com handicapping writer. He's not just throwing stuff out after looking at it for a second. He did some research on the team's stats to pick these things. Makes you feel more confident when somebody actually looks into it like he did. I'll be taking some of his. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-NFP-Super-Bowl-prop-betting-extravaganza-7645.html |
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| Author: | Chus [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) You are Seattle heavy, my friend Any plays going Denvers way? |
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| Author: | Chus [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
rogers park bryan wrote: Chus wrote: Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) You are Seattle heavy, my friend Any plays going Denvers way? I'm sure I will find a few more that I like. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: Chus wrote: Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) You are Seattle heavy, my friend Any plays going Denvers way? I'm sure I will find a few more that I like. I always want to make prop bets, but never pull the trigger |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: Chus wrote: Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) You are Seattle heavy, my friend Any plays going Denvers way? I'm sure I will find a few more that I like. I haven't looked at the props but I was thinking take the over on longest field goal. Good defenses, big leg kickers, relatively stable conditions |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) UNDER on Every Denver Yards Recieving Option |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Russell Wilson's first rushing attempt - over 5.5 yards (-115) Seahawks to have the most penalty yards (-125) 2nd half + OT to have more points than the first half (-135) Marshawn Lynch rushing attempts - under 21.5 (even) |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Don't like it: Wilson, Lynch, Harvin and I have to believe at least one backup |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
good dolphin wrote: Chus wrote: Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Don't like it: Wilson, Lynch, Harvin and I have to believe at least one backup Turbin O/U on carries is 3.5 |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
good dolphin wrote: Chus wrote: Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Don't like it: Wilson, Lynch, Harvin and I have to believe at least one backup Let's see Harvin stay on the field, before we count him. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Russell Wilson's first rushing attempt - over 5.5 yards (-115) Seahawks to have the most penalty yards (-125) 2nd half + OT to have more points than the first half (-135) Marshawn Lynch rushing attempts - under 21.5 (even) First score of the game -- field goal or safety (+125) |
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| Author: | Chus [ Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Russell Wilson's first rushing attempt - over 5.5 yards (-115) Seahawks to have the most penalty yards (-125) 2nd half + OT to have more points than the first half (-135) Marshawn Lynch rushing attempts - under 21.5 (even) First score of the game -- field goal or safety (+125) Trindon Holliday - to score first touchdown (+7500) Zach Miller - to score first touchdown (+1800) |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
2 units Number of Seahawks to catch a pass - under 7.5 (-200) 1 unit Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Russell Wilson's first rushing attempt - over 5.5 yards (-115) Seahawks to have the most penalty yards (-125) 2nd half + OT to have more points than the first half (-135) Marshawn Lynch rushing attempts - under 21.5 (even) First score of the game -- field goal or safety (+125) 0.5 units Trindon Holliday - to score first touchdown (+7500) Zach Miller - to score first touchdown (+1800) |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
2 units Number of Seahawks to catch a pass - under 7.5 (-200) 1 unit Julius Thomas - under 53.5 receiving yards (-130) Denver - over 4.5 punts (-115) Russell Wilson to score a rushing TD (+425) Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) Number of Seahawks to have a rushing attempt - under 4 (-130) Russell Wilson's first rushing attempt - over 5.5 yards (-115) Seahawks to have the most penalty yards (-125) 2nd half + OT to have more points than the first half (-135) Marshawn Lynch rushing attempts - under 21.5 (even) First score of the game -- field goal or safety (+125) Russell Wilson rushing yards - over 32 (-115) 0.5 units Trindon Holliday - to score first touchdown (+7500) Zach Miller - to score first touchdown (+1800) |
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| Author: | Buster [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
National Anthem under 140 seconds She is singing to a tape from the NJ Symphony orchestra. |
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| Author: | At Large [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
First team to record a QB sack - Denver -105, intertops |
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| Author: | spanky [ Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) You actually making a play on this? |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
spanky wrote: Chus wrote: Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) You actually making a play on this? Yes |
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| Author: | spanky [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Chus wrote: spanky wrote: Chus wrote: Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) You actually making a play on this? Yes I'm not a huge gambler, but isn't this way worse than playing the money line - which you've been railing against all year? You literally have almost nothing to gain on this type of wager. Throwing $5 on YES is a better wager, isn't it? |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
spanky wrote: Chus wrote: spanky wrote: Chus wrote: Will there be a safety -- NO (-800) You actually making a play on this? Yes I'm not a huge gambler, but isn't this way worse than playing the money line - which you've been railing against all year? You literally have almost nothing to gain on this type of wager. Throwing $5 on YES is a better wager, isn't it? Roughly 98% of NFL games do not have a safety. A bet at -800 needs to hit 88.88% of the time to break even. It's a value play. |
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| Author: | spanky [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
But, and if this is out of line then just tell me to shut up - again, I'm not a huge sports gambler, so maybe this is a faux pas - how much are you wagering on this? Even if you bet $100, minus the juice, the payout is minimal, right? |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
spanky wrote: But, and if this is out of line then just tell me to shut up - again, I'm not a huge sports gambler, so maybe this is a faux pas - how much are you wagering on this? Even if you bet $100, minus the juice, the payout is minimal, right? Risk $8 to win $1 on a -800 bet. On average, the bet wins roughly 49 times out of 50. If you win $1 49 times, and lose $8 once, you come out ahead. |
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| Author: | FavreFan [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
I thought I heard on some podcast somewhere that there's a prop bet for O/U on Julian Thomas receiving yards that's set at like 75. Is that true Chus? I would have to think the Under on that would be one of the best plays available if true. Edit: nevermind, just saw your list of plays. I would still go under 53 yards. I like the play. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
My three shops now have NO SAFETY at -1000, -1100, and -1200 Value. |
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| Author: | Buster [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Buster wrote: National Anthem under 140 seconds She is singing to a tape from the NJ Symphony orchestra. pay the under players |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Whoops |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
Buster wrote: Buster wrote: National Anthem under 140 seconds She is singing to a tape from the NJ Symphony orchestra. pay the under players I grabbed it. Once you see the over or under start to get juiced, you know that's the right side. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
6 yd carry for Wilson -- WINNER Or not. It was graded as five yards. |
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| Author: | Buster [ Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Prop Bets |
when I posted I got the under at -130 last time I looked it was -250 I was timing symphonies from Youtube to see how long they took I guess others started doing it too LOL |
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