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Pick Winners, NFL Week 16
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Author:  Coast2Coast [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Pick Winners, NFL Week 16
This weekly wagering contest will reward the best football prognosticator with a $100 gift certificate from a steak company. New guys can still join in any time and you don't have to make a pick every week. You can post your plays any time, but they must be posted before a game you are playing kicks off. You must make your picks in this thread and you must provide at least one reason for each pick.

The winner will the guy with the best record after the NFL regular season and college bowl games are concluded (last game is Natl. Championship game). You must have at least 50 picks by January 9 to win the prize. Please use and post the prevailing lines at the time of your picks from one of the two largest offshore casinos: thegreek.com or pinnaclesports.com. Post your NFL picks here and your college bowl picks in the college bowl thread.

Overall, the board had another solid week, going 51-41 (55%). The overall board record for the season is 52% at 542-495-29.

................................Last Week....................Season.............................%
Not in the Biz................0-0..............................8-3..............................73
Mr. Belvidere................2-0.............................12-7..............................63
Nas.............................5-5.............................26-18.............................59
Hawkeye Vince.............0-1.............................36-26.............................58
Chus..........................11-5.............................94-73-5..........................56
the gooch....................1-2.............................27-21-1...........................56
donspiracy...................0-0..............................61-51-2..........................54
Coast..........................4-4..............................76-65-5..........................54
Doug...........................0-0...............................8-7-2............................53
Matt Murton’s Beard......0-2.............................22-20-1...........................52
Good dolphin................5-4.............................45-45-1...........................50
Mitch Cumstein.............3-2.............................30-30..............................50
Woodridge Ryan............2-3...............................9-9...............................50
Rocks and Blows...........2-3.............................29-30-3...........................49
Bud Dude.....................4-4.............................55-57-5...........................49
reents..........................7-5.............................84-96-5...........................47
sabu............................5-1.............................29-34-1...........................46
BD...............................0-0..............................3-10..............................23
Author:  Chus [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Cleveland -3
I am not going to put a lot of stock in the Bucs comeback against the beloved. I don't see them getting up on the road again.

Washington +1
Despite the poor record, the Skins are still a decent team. The line has moved from +3 to +1, so somebody knows something. I am gonna grab this one before it goes pick'em. Ladell Betts should be able to pound a bad D, and Campbell has progressed farther and earlier than I thought he would.

Buffalo -4.5
Everyone is focusing on the Titans resurgence, but the Bills are quietly flying under the radar. They have won 5 of their last 7, and the two losses were one point at Indy, and 3 to the Chargers. They just spanked a decent Miami team. The Titans struggled on offense yesterday, scoring 3 times on defense. I don't see three defensive scores here, Bills by 7.

Kansas City -6
Traditionally, these rivals play close games, but the Raiders might be the worst team I have ever seen. 0 points against the Rams pitiful D ? The Chiefs hung with the Chargers until the end, putting constant pressure on Rivers. The Raiders have quit and will get blown out, keeping alive KC's faint playoff hopes.

Baltimore +3.5
The Ravens are clearly the better team, and have much more to play for. The Steelers were outclassed in the last meeting between these teams. Willie Parker has struggled against the Raven D in the past. Pitt has won three straight, but against inferior competition.
Author:  Chus [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
It is a good thing that this guy didn't get in our contest, he is 138-0 over the last two years. Does anyone fall for this stuff ?

http://www.thebestbetonsports.net/
Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
TCU -12 against NIU

For the reasons listed in the college section. I think this one is a lock.

BYU -3 against Oregon

For the record, I had this up a day before the game. It was deleted during the debugging.

Rice -4 against Troy

South Florida -4.5 against East Carolina

New Mexico -3.5 against San Jose St.

Tulsa +1 against Utah

Hawaii -7 against Arizona State.

Chiefs -6.5 at Oakland

The overrated raider pass d has kept them in games this year. I say overrated because people don't pass when they can easily run. You don't want to have a bad run D with Larry Johnson coming to town. Further, I think this Raider team has quit. ESPN reported that Art Shell will be fired, Moss and Porter have been embarrassments. I just don't see them getting up for these next two games.

Bears -4.5 at Detriot

This seems like a trap game. Detroit, while talented on O, has been horrible. The will not be able to attack the Bear weakness against the run with their 4th string RB starting. They are pourous on D...so why only 4.5. I think it is because there is a perception the Bears will not play the starters the full game. I think Lovie learned a lesson last year against Minny. You go full bore every game. That makes you playoff ready.

Saints +3 at Giants

The Saints really are a team that gets little respect from the oddsmakers. They seem to lay points every week. Meanwhile their 1 WR is back to health, their 2 RB are playing great and they have a Pro Bowl QB. Oddsmakers see this as a high scoring game (47.5) and I think that favors the Saints.

49ers -4 against Cardinals

Niners are quietly putting together a decent season. The offense (especially running) has shown great improvement all year. Last week the D picked it up on the road. I think the Niners are playing for something.

Chargers -4 at Seattle

I hear a lot of crap about the Bears being a team that is beatable in the playoffs. The Seahawks have been uncriticzed for a disappointing year. Sure they have had injuries, but who hasn't. They should have a tough time against the SD D this week and I think LT will grind out another one for the Bolts.

Eagles +7 at Dallas

Here we go again with the unjustified love of Dallas. Is there something about the play of the Eagles since Mc Nabb went down that makes you think they should be 7 point dogs. Games in this series always seem to be close. I expect this one to be as well. If it goes to 7.5 jump on it heavy.

Miami -2.5 against Jets

Jets are a jekle and hyde team. Miami has shown that it finishes well under Saban. I think his D dominates in this one.
Author:  Chus [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Green Bay -3
Perhaps Favre's last game in the spotlight of the NFL network. Doubt it, but this Viking offense is brutal. I love the Pack laying only a field goal on the frozen tundra, where Favre has owned the Viqueens.
Author:  Matt Murton's Beard [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Green Bay -3
This is a lay-up. Minnesota is starting rookie Tavaris Jackson at QB. Minny is throwing up the white flag and is looking towards 2007, whereas the Packers will play hard at home for Favre and his farewell tour in a Green Bay uniform.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
It is a good thing that this guy didn't get in our contest, he is 138-0 over the last two years. Does anyone fall for this stuff ?

http://www.thebestbetonsports.net/


The short answer is some, but very few people fall for this kind of stuff. The guy might sell a handful of packages for people in real trouble who are grasping...but most astute gamblers who want to pay for "help" aren't responding to this kind of stuff. The real money is made by this guy collecting names and then selling the list.

The same is true with the ads in the newspapers and on radio. Ads typically do not pay for themselves in terms of packages sold. An associate of mine ran a test one time. He bought a national newspaper ad once and a national radio buy another time offering a "free pick" and a pay service. Cost a few thousand for each. The packages he sold as a result of these one time ads almost covered the cost of the ads, but not quite. However, he got over 700 inquiries complete with caller ID phone numbers from gamblers who wanted the "free pick" he was giving out. From that, he built a call list of 700 numbers. He was contacted by several touts who do nothing but track ads like these and then contact the sources to buy their lists. The going rate is 50 cents per qualified number. My friend refused to sell, but we learned a lot about how the scam works and who the scammers are.

Any of you who have ever called a score phone or a tout advertised in the newspaper already know this. Once you call one of those services or email a tout for any reason, you are on their phone or email list. You WILL receive calls at that same phone number or emails from touts who bought your number.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:26 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
Green Bay -3
This is a lay-up. Minnesota is starting rookie Tavaris Jackson at QB. Minny is throwing up the white flag and is looking towards 2007, whereas the Packers will play hard at home for Favre and his farewell tour in a Green Bay uniform.


Let us hope you are correct and the white flag is flying over the Vikes. As I posted in the preseason, my best play of the preseason was on Minny under 8 wins. With Minny at 6 wins, I'm guaranteed a push, but I need one more L to cash it.
Author:  Mr. Belvidere [ Thu Dec 21, 2006 9:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
Here goes.......

KC at Oak- OVER 36

Kansas City has lost three straight and they capable of dropping 40 on the Raiders.

Tennessee at Buffalo -4.5- (BUFFALO)

Buffalo and Tennessee are playing well late in the year but Buffalo has more big play weapons and they are at home. V Young is due to drop back to earth.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3.5 (Pittsburgh)

Steelers have much more to play for and they have a lot of pride. Coach Cow may be leaving. Willie Parker is playing great. Balt may pack it in this week.

Chicago -5 at Detroit- (Chicago)

Only 5????????

Arizona at San Fran OVER 45

Shoot out

San Diego at Seattle +4.5 (Seattle)

Seattles getting healthy and they were in the Super Bowl. Great teams have bad games eventually. San Diego is due to have a bad game.

NY Jets at Miami -2 (Miami)

Miami was shut out last week and heads will roll if they dont shape up. I like Taylor to beat down Pennington.
Author:  Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dang it mine are all gone.
I'm going to give all that prose again - Coast here ya go:

Chicago -4.5 @ Detroit

NO@ NYG OVER 47

Ten @ Buffalo OVER 36.5

TB @ Cleveland UNDER 36.5

Cinci +3 @ Denver

SD @ Seattle OVER 46.5
Author:  Bud Dude [ Fri Dec 22, 2006 7:54 am ]
Post subject: 
Site was down all day yesterday when I tried to post but Minny would have been my play last nite. You have to go way way back to find the last time the fav covered in this series. I had Minny big last nite. Figures I couldnt post that winner the way my luck has been goin lately.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Fri Dec 22, 2006 9:53 am ]
Post subject: 
The site was down much of yesterday and even when it's up, it's getting difficult to get in some times. As we reach the stretch run of this contest, let's have a backup plan. If the site is down, you can email me your picks at c2csvcs@aol.com. I'll add/count anything that is sent to me before kickoff.
Author:  Chus [ Fri Dec 22, 2006 10:22 am ]
Post subject: 
Denver -3
I don't think that Denver is going to lose 4 straight at home. Cutler should have no problem against a soft Bengal secondary. Palmer has a shoulder injury and his offensive line is injury depleted. The Broncos get back on a roll at home.
Author:  sabu [ Fri Dec 22, 2006 11:36 am ]
Post subject: 
Chiefs -7 @ Oakland


Oakland has shown a resurgent D, however, the Larry Johnson show runs over a Raider team that has commenced mailing it in. Merry Christmans Art Shell


Bills -5 v. Titans- Bills defend the home turf, since Tenn cant score and offensive TD lately. Bills arent dumb enough to turn the ball over that many times.


Giants -3 v. New Orleans

giants know how to tackle, New Orleans doesnt, nor do they like stopping people. Race to 35 points goes to NYG.

Gians/NO Over 47

Giants should be able to roll it up on New Orleans, NO can score as well thanks to Brees. 48 points should not be a problem if weather is AOK.


Redskins +2 @ StL.

shouldnt be a problem for the redskins, sure they have no reason to play for, but Gibbs is a winner and a hell of a coach. I like the skins in a game where both teams have no reason to show up or play, so Ill take Gibbs.

Bears -5 @ Det. now everyone repeat after me


FIRE MILLEN NOW!!!!. The Bears second string could spank this team. What a joke this Detriot squad has become, they should bring back Wayne Fontes (thats a joke there)


49ers -4 v. Arizona- the resurgent niners bring another one home. Gore to go for the rushing title and a big win for SF. This is a team on the rise. I like this game the best here.


Falons - Car under 41'- Wienke cant run this offense at all (1-17 as a starter 1 TD and 4 INT). Falcons can score some points here, but not 6 TDs between these 2 squads.
Author:  Bud Dude [ Fri Dec 22, 2006 1:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
THANKS COAST!!!!
Author:  Chus [ Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
I had Chicago -4 on here before the line moved. It was one of the many posts removed since the board was down.
Author:  M_C [ Sat Dec 23, 2006 2:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
Greek 12:30 Saturday

Detroit +5.5 I see the Bears coming out stale in this one and the game being a low scoring yawner.

KC -7 Oakland is wretched + I go up against LJ in my FF championship this week, he is sure to pop 3 TDs and 200+ rushing yards

Seattle +4.5 I think they turn it around this week with SF starting to breathe down their neck. Look for a shootout w/Seattle winning it outright

Steelers -3.5 again going against popular opinion, these guys are on a roll, look for their D to step up and post a single digit effort

Colts -9 These guys are back after Monday night look for them to roll into the playoffs Red Hot, Freeney to have 3 sacks against the super rookie bust

Browns -3 meaningless game, browns are tough at home look for them to pull away in the 2nd half.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat Dec 23, 2006 6:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Oakland Raidahs +7 vs. KC
I remember the late 60s like they were last week. Daryl Lamonica throwing to Fred Biletnikoff. John Madden storming the sidelines. Len Dawson winging it to Otis Taylor. Hank Stram in command. Even with all that offense, sometimes the defenses rule. The world loves the Chief, but on the road with their defense, I'll be the contrarian and take the points. Not sure the Raiders quit last week as much as they simply collapsed from the weight of 5 TOs. It's a new week. Blanda kicks enough field goals to keep this inside the number.
Author:  BD [ Sat Dec 23, 2006 7:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
Chiefs -7 vs Raiders:
Raiders season is over, Shell to be fired, and KC is still fighting for a possible playoff spot. Expect a lot of Larry Johnson tonight against a pretty solid Oakland defense, but if Trent Green can act like a starting QB tonight, KC should win by 10+.
Author:  reents [ Sat Dec 23, 2006 11:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Sunday
Titans +4.5 vs Bills- I see this being a field goal game with both teams still fighting for playoff spots.

Saints +3 vs Giants- I almost could see the Giants about to give up the season and I dodn't thinkl they would lose to the Eagles, the Saints are a good team.

Falcons-6.5 vs Panthers- I think the Panthers have quit and the Falcons need it for the playoffs.

Patriots+3 vs Jaguars- The Jaguars are coming off a bad loss and Brady doesn't lose much in Decenmber and for the Jaguars to win this game it will be by a field goal.

CHargers -4 vs Seahawks- The Seahawks look bad and I just think the Chargers are going to be your SUper Bowl Champions, so to prove more they get this one.
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 11:15 am ]
Post subject: 
Nas, May I ask where you found the Bears -4.5? The line has been 5.5 for a few days now...
Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 11:20 am ]
Post subject: 
JACKSONVILLE –3 over New England
THe Jags at home have been as impressive as any team in the league, beating the 44-17, the Jets 41-0, Tennessee 37-7, the Giants 26-10, the Cowboys 24-17 and the Steelers early in the year 9-0. And while the Pats are 10-4, they have had a very easy schedule about on par with the cupcake schedule of the Bears. This is not the same Pats team, particularly on offense, where the wide receiver core is very mediocre. And that will be pretty important today because the Pats showed they struggle against good defenses (Bears). We also get the Jags coming off a loss at Tennessee in which they totally dominated the game, but lost on three picks returned for TDs. Hell hath no fury like a pissed off Jaguar.
Author:  Bud Dude [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 12:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Merry Christmas!!! greek 11:10

New Orleans +3 over NYGiants

I think NO wins SU. NO had a letdown last week after their win over Dallas. I think Dallas is better than the GMen so I see NO winning this one by 10+

Over [/b]37 Ten/Buf

Over has been a moneymaker in Tenn games this year and Buf had gone over in 4 straight before last weeks shutout of Miami.

Over 36.5 Bal/Pit

Pitt O should do much better at home today than they did in Balt a month ago. A couple defensive TD's in this one wouldnt surpise me.
Author:  Bud Dude [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
greek 1:55

San Diego -4 over Seattle

Two teams goin in opposite directions as the season winds down. If Marty lets his team play today they should win this one by more than 4. LT should have another good day.
Author:  reents [ Mon Dec 25, 2006 12:10 am ]
Post subject:  Monday
Eagles +7 vs Cowboys- Garcia has the Eagles moving when it looked like they were done and you know the Eagles don't want T.O. to celebrate a division title on them, so look for a strong effort from the Eagles.

Merry Christmas to all.
Author:  Chus [ Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
Philadelphia +7
Garcia has been solid and has potent weapons. Romo has come back to earth the last few weeks. I don't trust the Cowboys defense, especially their secondary, to lay a touchdown to a good team. Westbrook was snubbed for the Pro Bowl, and will want to put on a show on the national stage, and you know the Eagles want to shove it right down TO's throat.
Author:  Bud Dude [ Mon Dec 25, 2006 2:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
greek 1:55

Under 37 Nyj/Mia

Mia D should be able to hold Jet O in check and Mia O not to good. Final earlier this year when these 2 met was 20-17 and I expect a similiar game tonite.
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