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| The Preakness (Wagering) https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=86888 |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Wed May 14, 2014 1:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Preakness (Wagering) |
What do the horse guys here think about betting an Exacta with Chrome winning each one and every other horse second? Good philosophy here? Danza is expected to join the field soon but not in yet 014 Preakness Stakes Odds Horse Odds Status California Chrome 5/8 Confirmed Danza 6/1 Not Entered Social Inclusion 6/1 Confirmed Bayern 10/1 Pending Ride On Curlin 12/1 Confirmed Kid Cruz 15/1 Confirmed Dynamic Impact 16/1 Confirmed Strong Mandate 17/1 Not Entered Ring Weekend 20/1 Confirmed General A Rod 20/1 Confirmed Pablo Del Monte 24/1 Confirmed Ria Antonia 32/1 Pending Vegas Insider |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 14, 2014 1:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
I don't think there's good value in playing the race that way. If Pletcher puts Danza in this race, it's not because he's going to finish second. Maybe he just can't beat the other horse, but I doubt that's the case. And if Social Inclsuion grabs the front without much pressure, there's no reason he can't wire the field. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Wed May 14, 2014 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: I don't think there's good value in playing the race that way. If Pletcher puts Danza in this race, it's not because he's going to finish second. Maybe he just can't beat the other horse, but I doubt that's the case. And if Social Inclsuion grabs the front without much pressure, there's no reason he can't wire the field. How bout dividing it this way? Exacta Chrome-Danza Exacta Chrome-Inlusion Inclusion to win Danza to win |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 14, 2014 1:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
I'm not really comfortable telling someone else how to bet, but I wouldn't play that way. I once read a book that featured profiles of various notable handicappers. One of the guys had the nickname "Captain Cover" because he tried to cover multiple possibilites in each race he bet. I guess it worked for him. My wife often uses a similar strategy and then gets upset at how much she might have won if she had simply not been so frightened of the favorite. At some point, it's gambling. I'm not looking make 5%. If I want to do that I'll buy gold. For me, in this race, California Chrome is likely going to be a glaring underlay. I have no use for him at 3/5 or 4/5. Now, if by some miracle he goes off at 2/1, that's a different story. But I can't really see that happening. If Danza goes in this race and is 5/1 or better, I will be betting until I get tired. And I will be trying to catch an overlay exacta with other horses beside the favorite to crush the fucking race. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed May 14, 2014 3:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Danza not in the race. The draw will be in about 90 mins, I'll post it then. TVG.com is going to offer another California Chrome deal on Friday for 1 hour only, which I'm imagining will be probably 3-1 at the most. That's where I'll probably be headed. I don't see anyone beating Cali Chrome unless it's a muddy track (rain is in forecast) and he doesn't get out to the lead and doesn't do well with mud splashing in his face. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 14, 2014 3:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
If you can get 3/1 on CA Chrome it's like stealing. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed May 14, 2014 3:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: If you can get 3/1 on CA Chrome it's like stealing. That's why I'm setting an alarm so I won't forget on Friday to see what they are guaranteeing. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed May 14, 2014 5:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Pgm# Horse (Trainer/Jockey) (odds) 1. Dynamic Impact (M. Casse/M.Mena) (12-1) 2. General a Rod (M. Maker/J. Castellano) (15-1) 3. California Chrome (A. Sherman/V. Espinoza) (3-5) FAV 4. Ring Weekend (G. Motion/A. Garcia) (20-1) 5. Bayern (B. Baffert/R. Napravnik) (10-1) 6. Ria Antonia (T. Amoss/C. Borel) (30-1) 7. Kid Cruz (L. Rice/J. Pimentel) (20-1) 8. Social Inclusion (M. Azupura/L. Contreras) (5-1) 9. Pablo del Monte (W. Ward/J. Sanchez) (20-1) 10. Ride On Curlin (B. Gowan/J. Rosario) (10-1) |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed May 14, 2014 5:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
I'm going to try to beat him with Ride On Curlin. Borel took that poor bastard on Mr. Toad's Wild Ride in the Derby. He had no shot. He was in. He was out. He was in. He was out. That hillbilly didn't seem to know if he was riding or fucking. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu May 15, 2014 5:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
rogers park bryan wrote: What do the horse guys here think about betting an Exacta with Chrome winning each one and every other horse second? Good philosophy here? Danza is expected to join the field soon but not in yet 014 Preakness Stakes Odds Horse Odds Status California Chrome 5/8 Confirmed Danza 6/1 Not Entered Social Inclusion 6/1 Confirmed Bayern 10/1 Pending Ride On Curlin 12/1 Confirmed Kid Cruz 15/1 Confirmed Dynamic Impact 16/1 Confirmed Strong Mandate 17/1 Not Entered Ring Weekend 20/1 Confirmed General A Rod 20/1 Confirmed Pablo Del Monte 24/1 Confirmed Ria Antonia 32/1 Pending Vegas Insider RPB with 10 horses running a $2 wheel will cost you 18 dollars, in order to just break even the exacta would have to pay that.Not a wise wager.....key him in tri's with a couple of bombs ...hope that helped |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu May 15, 2014 9:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Brisnet PP http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1933440 |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Thu May 15, 2014 9:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
spmack wrote: Where are Gary Quill's picks? He won me preakness last year. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu May 15, 2014 9:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
leashyourkids wrote: spmack wrote: Where are Gary Quill's picks? He won me preakness last year. He hasn't posted yet, but here is his blog you can check out. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/marylandgq The Preakness a lot easier to predict (obviously lol) than the Derby, or even the Belmont, so you could probably toss out half of the field before Saturday. I'd probably do a $0.50 Superfecta bet like this for $28 WIN: California Chrome, Social Inclusion PLACE: Cali Chrome, Social Inclusion, Bayern SHOW: Cali Chrome, Social Inclusion, Bayern, Ride On Curlin 4th: All |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Thu May 15, 2014 9:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: What do the horse guys here think about betting an Exacta with Chrome winning each one and every other horse second? Good philosophy here? Danza is expected to join the field soon but not in yet 014 Preakness Stakes Odds Horse Odds Status California Chrome 5/8 Confirmed Danza 6/1 Not Entered Social Inclusion 6/1 Confirmed Bayern 10/1 Pending Ride On Curlin 12/1 Confirmed Kid Cruz 15/1 Confirmed Dynamic Impact 16/1 Confirmed Strong Mandate 17/1 Not Entered Ring Weekend 20/1 Confirmed General A Rod 20/1 Confirmed Pablo Del Monte 24/1 Confirmed Ria Antonia 32/1 Pending Vegas Insider RPB with 10 horses running a $2 wheel will cost you 18 dollars, in order to just break even the exacta would have to pay that.Not a wise wager.....key him in tri's with a couple of bombs ...hope that helped Thanks Walt. And JORR and SPmack. Its all helpful Not sure what im gonna do. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu May 15, 2014 9:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
RPB, check out the Preakness 2008 stats from when Big Brown crushed the field and went off as the 1/9 favorite: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... SA&race=12 The $2 exacta only paid $39, and that was with a 40-1 shot coming in 2nd place. I don't see any the longshots here coming in 2nd to Cali Chrome, so I'm not sure your bet would be worthwhile. Currently, Cali Chrome is 3/5 or about 0.60 and I don't see that changing too much. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Thu May 15, 2014 9:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
spmack wrote: RPB, check out the Preakness 2008 stats from when Big Brown crushed the field and went off as the 1/9 favorite: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... SA&race=12 The $2 exacta only paid $39, and that was with a 40-1 shot coming in 2nd place. I don't see any the longshots here coming in 2nd to Cali Chrome, so I'm not sure your bet would be worthwhile. Currently, Cali Chrome is 3/5 or about 0.60 and I don't see that changing too much. Yeah, I got that tip second hand from a guy who said he made a good amount doing that with a heavy favorite. I gotta study up on all this stuff. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu May 15, 2014 10:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Check out Big Brown winning the Preakness. This is what I'm expecting from Cali Chrome on Saturday. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd3I9xGpCb8 |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Thu May 15, 2014 10:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
spmack wrote: Check out Big Brown winning the Preakness. This is what I'm expecting from Cali Chrome on Saturday. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd3I9xGpCb8 Here's what my guy at work gave me 3-4 exacta box 3. California Chrome 3-5 odds 4. Ring Weekend 20-1 odds |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu May 15, 2014 1:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Ride on Curlin might be the best longshot play in here. Has won over wet courses, improved position throughout the derby even with the Bo-Rail riding him all over the track. Another longshot worth looking at for gimmicks is Kid Cruz. The horse has been blazing up the track in the late going of his last three starts. Never faced this level of competition but no reason he couldn't sneak a piece. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu May 15, 2014 2:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
TVG is offering 3/2 for one hour tomorrow on California Chrome. That comes out to be $2.50 for every $1 bet, but you can only bet up to $25, so the most you'd get back if Cali Chrome wins is 62.50 (your initial $25 plus 37.50) https://www.tvg.com/page/PreaknessOddsBoost/ |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu May 15, 2014 2:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Considering you'll be getting 3/5 at the most - it would be great odds to hedge your bets against. If you took that same 25 tomorrow and bet on CC, you making 15 dollars (returning 40 total). |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Thu May 15, 2014 4:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Uh oh http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/sport ... cough.html California Chrome has a cough. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Fri May 16, 2014 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
I hope it's much ado about nothing. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri May 16, 2014 1:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
spmack wrote: I hope it's much ado about nothing. Everything I just read said he is good to go, jogged this morning on a sloppy track and ate all of his food. They seem really confident. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 16, 2014 2:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Hawg Ass wrote: spmack wrote: I hope it's much ado about nothing. Everything I just read said he is good to go, jogged this morning on a sloppy track and ate all of his food. They seem really confident. Wouldn't you be? Your horse just cruised in the Derby. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers didn't come back to face you. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Fri May 16, 2014 2:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
I was looking at mud sires in the race and looks like almost every horse is bred for it. So much for that angle! |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Fri May 16, 2014 2:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Hawkeye Vince wrote: Hawg Ass wrote: spmack wrote: I hope it's much ado about nothing. Everything I just read said he is good to go, jogged this morning on a sloppy track and ate all of his food. They seem really confident. Wouldn't you be? Your horse just cruised in the Derby. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers didn't come back to face you. My fault, I meant confident with his health. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 16, 2014 5:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
I agree with JOR and Hawkeye ....all speed and one closer ......simple |
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| Author: | spmack [ Fri May 16, 2014 5:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
Quote: Dear Spmack,
Well done, you placed an eligible bet in the TVG Odds Boost promotion! If California Chrome wins the Preakness tomorrow you'll receive the official tote payout; the bonus to bring your payout to 3/2 will be credited within 48 hours. It will appear in your account separate to your official payout on California Chrome. Best of luck! TVG |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 16, 2014 6:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Preakness (Wagering) |
spmack wrote: Check out Big Brown winning the Preakness. This is what I'm expecting from Cali Chrome on Saturday. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd3I9xGpCb8 Here is how men watch the race https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs1X0ptj_z4 |
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