What do the horse guys here think about betting an Exacta with Chrome winning each one and every other horse second? Good philosophy here?


Danza is expected to join the field soon but not in yet


014 Preakness Stakes Odds
Horse Odds Status
California Chrome 5/8 Confirmed
Danza 6/1 Not Entered
Social Inclusion 6/1 Confirmed
Bayern 10/1 Pending
Ride On Curlin 12/1 Confirmed
Kid Cruz 15/1 Confirmed
Dynamic Impact 16/1 Confirmed
Strong Mandate 17/1 Not Entered
Ring Weekend 20/1 Confirmed
General A Rod 20/1 Confirmed
Pablo Del Monte 24/1 Confirmed
Ria Antonia 32/1 Pending
Vegas Insider

I don't think there's good value in playing the race that way.

If Pletcher puts Danza in this race, it's not because he's going to finish second. Maybe he just can't beat the other horse, but I doubt that's the case. And if Social Inclsuion grabs the front without much pressure, there's no reason he can't wire the field.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

How bout dividing it this way?

Exacta
Chrome-Danza

Exacta
Chrome-Inlusion

Inclusion to win

Danza to win

I'm not really comfortable telling someone else how to bet, but I wouldn't play that way. I once read a book that featured profiles of various notable handicappers. One of the guys had the nickname "Captain Cover" because he tried to cover multiple possibilites in each race he bet. I guess it worked for him. My wife often uses a similar strategy and then gets upset at how much she might have won if she had simply not been so frightened of the favorite. At some point, it's gambling. I'm not looking make 5%. If I want to do that I'll buy gold.

For me, in this race, California Chrome is likely going to be a glaring underlay. I have no use for him at 3/5 or 4/5. Now, if by some miracle he goes off at 2/1, that's a different story. But I can't really see that happening. If Danza goes in this race and is 5/1 or better, I will be betting until I get tired. And I will be trying to catch an overlay exacta with other horses beside the favorite to crush the fucking race.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Danza not in the race.

The draw will be in about 90 mins, I'll post it then.

TVG.com is going to offer another California Chrome deal on Friday for 1 hour only, which I'm imagining will be probably 3-1 at the most. That's where I'll probably be headed. I don't see anyone beating Cali Chrome unless it's a muddy track (rain is in forecast) and he doesn't get out to the lead and doesn't do well with mud splashing in his face.

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If you can get 3/1 on CA Chrome it's like stealing.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That's why I'm setting an alarm so I won't forget on Friday to see what they are guaranteeing.

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Pgm# Horse (Trainer/Jockey) (odds)

1. Dynamic Impact (M. Casse/M.Mena) (12-1)
2. General a Rod (M. Maker/J. Castellano) (15-1)
3. California Chrome (A. Sherman/V. Espinoza) (3-5) FAV
4. Ring Weekend (G. Motion/A. Garcia) (20-1)
5. Bayern (B. Baffert/R. Napravnik) (10-1)
6. Ria Antonia (T. Amoss/C. Borel) (30-1)
7. Kid Cruz (L. Rice/J. Pimentel) (20-1)
8. Social Inclusion (M. Azupura/L. Contreras) (5-1)
9. Pablo del Monte (W. Ward/J. Sanchez) (20-1)
10. Ride On Curlin (B. Gowan/J. Rosario) (10-1)

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I'm going to try to beat him with Ride On Curlin. Borel took that poor bastard on Mr. Toad's Wild Ride in the Derby. He had no shot. He was in. He was out. He was in. He was out. That hillbilly didn't seem to know if he was riding or fucking.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

RPB with 10 horses running a $2 wheel will cost you 18 dollars, in order to just break even the exacta would have to pay that.Not a wise wager.....key him in tri's with a couple of bombs ...hope that helped

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Brisnet PP

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1933440

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Where are Gary Quill's picks? He won me preakness last year.

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He hasn't posted yet, but here is his blog you can check out.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/marylandgq


The Preakness a lot easier to predict (obviously lol) than the Derby, or even the Belmont, so you could probably toss out half of the field before Saturday.

I'd probably do a $0.50 Superfecta bet like this for $28


WIN: California Chrome, Social Inclusion
PLACE: Cali Chrome, Social Inclusion, Bayern
SHOW: Cali Chrome, Social Inclusion, Bayern, Ride On Curlin
4th: All

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Thanks Walt. And JORR and SPmack.

Its all helpful


Not sure what im gonna do.

RPB, check out the Preakness 2008 stats from when Big Brown crushed the field and went off as the 1/9 favorite:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... SA&race=12

The $2 exacta only paid $39, and that was with a 40-1 shot coming in 2nd place. I don't see any the longshots here coming in 2nd to Cali Chrome, so I'm not sure your bet would be worthwhile.

Currently, Cali Chrome is 3/5 or about 0.60 and I don't see that changing too much.

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Yeah, I got that tip second hand from a guy who said he made a good amount doing that with a heavy favorite.


I gotta study up on all this stuff.

Check out Big Brown winning the Preakness. This is what I'm expecting from Cali Chrome on Saturday.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd3I9xGpCb8

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Here's what my guy at work gave me


3-4 exacta box
3. California Chrome 3-5 odds
4. Ring Weekend 20-1 odds

Ride on Curlin might be the best longshot play in here. Has won over wet courses, improved position throughout the derby even with the Bo-Rail riding him all over the track.

Another longshot worth looking at for gimmicks is Kid Cruz. The horse has been blazing up the track in the late going of his last three starts. Never faced this level of competition but no reason he couldn't sneak a piece.

TVG is offering 3/2 for one hour tomorrow on California Chrome. That comes out to be $2.50 for every $1 bet, but you can only bet up to $25, so the most you'd get back if Cali Chrome wins is 62.50 (your initial $25 plus 37.50)

https://www.tvg.com/page/PreaknessOddsBoost/

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Considering you'll be getting 3/5 at the most - it would be great odds to hedge your bets against.

If you took that same 25 tomorrow and bet on CC, you making 15 dollars (returning 40 total).

Uh oh

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/sport ... cough.html

California Chrome has a cough.

I hope it's much ado about nothing.

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Everything I just read said he is good to go, jogged this morning on a sloppy track and ate all of his food. They seem really confident.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Wouldn't you be? Your horse just cruised in the Derby. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers didn't come back to face you.

I was looking at mud sires in the race and looks like almost every horse is bred for it. So much for that angle!

My fault, I meant confident with his health.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

I agree with JOR and Hawkeye ....all speed and one closer ......simple

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

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Here is how men watch the race
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs1X0ptj_z4

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.