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NFL books vs players
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=89167		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Buster [ Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  NFL books vs players
LAS VEGAS -- One week after getting absolutely pummeled by the Las Vegas sports books to near record proportions, bettors came back with a vengeance in Week 2 of the NFL season in an attempt to gain some of their money back. But they ended up failing again, as only one of their seven key games on the day came through.

“The Saints losing were key to our entire day because of knocking out so many teasers and money-line parlays,” said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood. “That was the game that was tied into other games throughout the schedule the most. Had they covered, tied to the Patriots covering, we might have been in some trouble heading into the late games.”

New Orleans is considered by many to be one of the top-five rated teams in the league, which helped the majority of the public forego the fact that the Saints have failed to cover eight of their last nine regular-season games on the road, including last week at Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. It’s easily the worst road ATS record among all teams over that span.

On Sunday, the Saints were 6-point favorites at Cleveland and proceeded to get beat 26-24, which paid +240 to the few bettors who chose the Browns to win outright on the money-line. The only key decision of the eight early games the bettors collectively had correctly was the Patriots (-3) at Minnesota, where over 80 percent of the wagers came on New England. There was some large adjustments on that game made Friday due to Vikings RB Adrian Peterson‘s being deactivated due to legal issues..

Said Rood, “We initially took the Patriots game off the parlay card (-3.5) when Peterson was out because the adjusted line (-6 on the board) got so high, but when it started falling (back to the original line) after sharper money was taking the points, we opened it back up on the cards early Sunday morning.”

The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White said Peterson’s absence should have accounted for just a 1.5-point adjustment, and when the Pats were reposted between -5.5 and -7 (at CG Technologies), large money came pouring in on the dog and books were pushed right back to where they started at -3. Sharps were wrong, and Joe Public was right with the Patriots, who won 30-7, but the problem for the public was that most didn’t have their winning New England side paired with another winner for the rest of the day.

Dog day afternoon

After regrouping for the second wave of games, many with a visit to the ATM machine, bettors collectively came strong with wagers on five of the six remaining games and all five favorites failed to cover.

-- Tampa Bay lost outright at home, 19-17, to St. Louis as a 4.5-point favorite, an easy game for many to choose after the Rams’ horrendous 34-6 home loss to the Vikings in Week 1. The Buccaneers were the side of choice by over 70 percent of bettors.

-- Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle lost outright, 30-21, at San Diego as 5-point favorites, where 62 percent of bettors sided with the Seahawks but were shocked to see the Chargers defense be the ones swarming all over the place.

-- After seeing the Jets fail to cover at home last week against an anemic Raiders offense, 70 percent of bettors thought the Packers would have no problem covering -7.5 at home against Geno Smith’s squad, but the Packers were fortunate to come away with a 31-24 win.

-- Then there was Denver. Over 60 percent of bettors thought that laying -13.5 at home would be no problem after seeing the Chiefs lose at home to Tennessee last week. The Broncos came out firing, building a 21-10 halftime lead, but they sputtered in the second-half and ended up winning by only seven, 24-17. The total staying UNDER 49, which 70 percent of bettors disagreed with, was another blow. However, larger straight-bet money was correct, as it pushed the total down from an opener of 51.

-- In the nightcap, most sided with the 49ers laying 7 points in their Levi’s Stadium home debut against the Bears. The Bears, trailing 20-7 after three quarters, stormed back not only to cover, but also win outright, 28-20, the cherry on top of an already stellar Sunday for the sports books.

Overall on Sunday, favorites went 6-8 ATS, with six of the underdogs winning outright. The OVER went 6-8 as well. When the numbers on the right side are greater than the left, the sports books are almost always going to have a good day.

The ‘league is unbeatable’

Bettors must now be questioning their own ratings. After being terribly wrong through the first two weeks of the season while riding the favorites, they may start to look for a few more underdogs, and that’s when the books really get them. Fewer bettors will be willing to lay points with the first two weeks still fresh in their minds, which helps the books from losing a ton on a favorite-fest.

“I really don’t know how the bettors keep betting these games so much,” said Rood. “This league is unbeatable. It’s so tough week to week that I don‘t know how many could survive it if they had to.”

Sharp bettors who depend on weekly income from the NFL do well because they’re usually on the side the books need. Joe Public, who keeps trying to hit big-dollar 8-team parlays, have a rough time of it.

Advice for Joe Public: Instead of swinging for the fences of a big payout, try a few straight bets and a couple of two-team parlays. How many times do we hear the guy in the back of a sports book say, “the damn Packers killed my five-team parlay”? He went 4-1 for the day, which should mean a big win, but he ended up getting greedy and losing money.

The football parlay pay chart is stacked against you to begin with. It’s not true odds like baseball, and the one fair payout is 13-to-5 on a two-teamer. Give it a shot and make those 4-1 days winners like the pros do.
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