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NFL Playoffs
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Author:  Coast2Coast [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 3:49 am ]
Post subject:  NFL Playoffs
Ravens -4 vs. Colts
I love Peyton Manning and his skills. But one guy cannot beat a team by himself. The Ravens defense will be all over the Colts receivers and I'm not sure Harrison or Wayne can get much separation on the Ravens secondary. When I see how Jax defended the Colts, and make the Ravens a notch or two above the Jax D, I can see Manning frustrated all day because he won't have guys open. And does anyone really believe that the Colts will be able to run much? On the other side of the ball, it's time for the other Vol in this game to steal the show. The ex con Jamaal Lewis is a shell of his former self, but he's still a pretty strong, tough runner. Against the worst run D in the last 45 years in the NFL, I expect him to have a big day. Blowout. 27-10.

Seattle +10 vs. Bears
I bought this at +10. -112 very early in the week, but you can buy it up from 9.5 now at only pennies more. Bears simply have too many questions to be laying ten in the playoffs. I've had questions about the secondary since last year, and they haven't really been answered to my satisfaction. I've got questions about Grossman's decision making under pressure. And I've got questions about Turner's play calling. I also have questions about the Bears' mental preparation. Some of these guys are starting to sound like head cases, with Urlacher and Tillman going off about the shibboleth that they don't get any respect. Confident playoff teams simply don't talk that way. They focus on the opponent, not the media noise. That will have no effect once the game starts, but did it have an effect on their preparation for it? Hasselbeck and Alexander haven't had great years, but regardless of their performance THIS year, I believe they are better overall at their positions than the Bears QB and RBs. The Seahawks also won two playoff games last year. That's two more than this Bears team has won. Talk about lack of respect...the defending NFC champs are 9.5 point dogs? Seems to me that's quite a lot of respect for da Bears. I don't see any unit on the field as being so dominant that either team is going to run away here. I think this game is very close, possibly decided by a late field goal. 3-4 points either way with the winner likely being the team with fewer turnovers. Bears 20, Seattle 17. But a Seattle win would be no surprise...especially if Dumb Rex makes another appearance.

fyi..I placed these bets earlier this week, but the numbers are still good on Saturday monring...
Author:  Chus [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:17 am ]
Post subject: 
All year, Urlacher has sounded like a lunatic. WAAH WAAH WAAH we don't get respect. We are the worst 13-3 team ever. Shut up and play football.
Author:  Chus [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NFL Playoffs
Coast2Coast wrote:
Ravens -4 vs. Colts
I love Peyton Manning and his skills. But one guy cannot beat a team by himself. The Ravens defense will be all over the Colts receivers and I'm not sure Harrison or Wayne can get much separation on the Ravens secondary. When I see how Jax defended the Colts, and make the Ravens a notch or two above the Jax D, I can see Manning frustrated all day because he won't have guys open. And does anyone really believe that the Colts will be able to run much? On the other side of the ball, it's time for the other Vol in this game to steal the show. The ex con Jamaal Lewis is a shell of his former self, but he's still a pretty strong, tough runner. Against the worst run D in the last 45 years in the NFL, I expect him to have a big day. Blowout. 27-10.

Seattle +10 vs. Bears
I bought this at +10. -112 very early in the week, but you can buy it up from 9.5 now at only pennies more. Bears simply have too many questions to be laying ten in the playoffs. I've had questions about the secondary since last year, and they haven't really been answered to my satisfaction. I've got questions about Grossman's decision making under pressure. And I've got questions about Turner's play calling. I also have questions about the Bears' mental preparation. Some of these guys are starting to sound like head cases, with Urlacher and Tillman going off about the shibboleth that they don't get any respect. Confident playoff teams simply don't talk that way. They focus on the opponent, not the media noise. That will have no effect once the game starts, but did it have an effect on their preparation for it? Hasselbeck and Alexander haven't had great years, but regardless of their performance THIS year, I believe they are better overall at their positions than the Bears QB and RBs. The Seahawks also won two playoff games last year. That's two more than this Bears team has won. Talk about lack of respect...the defending NFC champs are 9.5 point dogs? Seems to me that's quite a lot of respect for da Bears. I don't see any unit on the field as being so dominant that either team is going to run away here. I think this game is very close, possibly decided by a late field goal. 3-4 points either way with the winner likely being the team with fewer turnovers. Bears 20, Seattle 17. But a Seattle win would be no surprise...especially if Dumb Rex makes another appearance.

fyi..I placed these bets earlier this week, but the numbers are still good on Saturday monring...


With the killer snow once again in the forecast, and thus a sloppy field, a small play on Seattle on the Money Line might not be a bad play.
Author:  BD [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:44 am ]
Post subject: 
Baltimore Ravens -4 (50 Units)



It was one hell of a mistake to go against the Colts last week and it was actually the only prediction I got wrong. I only bet on the sides last weekend and went 3-1 but predicted totals hit at 4-0, making the Chiefs + the points my only mistake of the weekend. Some would call this another mistake I am about to make but hear me out first and let me know what you think once I am done. I watched that entire Chiefs-Colts game last weekend. Anyone else who watched it would agree with me that had it not been for Kansas City's absolutely pathetic display of offensive capabilities, we could be watching a completely different matchup this week. In all fairness to the one you all lover, Peyton Manning played well enough to win the game but I am still not buying the Colts of 2006 nor have I all season. It's funny how quickly everyone forgets that Indianapolis lost all 4 of their games on the road this year and those losses were to Dallas by 7 points, to Tennessee by 3 points, to Jacksonville by 27 points and to Houston by 3 points. Well the Ravens are much better than all four of those teams. You really can't compare this game to the 24-7 Colts win here in 2005 because those were the Kyle Boller days and these are the new days. The Colts come into this game averaging 23.8 points per game on 364.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play on the road this season. Baltimore's defense is allowing only 12.0 points per home game on 247.8 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play this season. That's actually quite better than KC's defense who did a good job last week. The Colts are averaging only 87.0 rushing yards per road game on 3.6 yards per carry. RB Joseph Addai has his way last week but this is where the problems start. Addai averaged only 59.3 rushing yards per road game compared to 75.9 at home. Baltimore's defense has allowed only 71.4 rushing yards per home game this season and Addai probably won't pass the 50 yard mark in this one. In the air, Manning is completing 63.8% of his passes away from home on 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. That would mean 7 interceptions on the road and only 2 at home for 'KING'. It is a well known fact that Manning struggles badly under pressure. He has only been sacked 9 times in 8 road game this year but...Baltimore has 32 whopping sacks at home this year and the pressure will be everywhere. The Ravens defense is vicious (better than the Bears) and they have 14 interceptions at home this year. They are also allowing only 20.6% of 3rd downs to be converted on home turf and opposing teams are scoring touchdowns in the RedZone only 25.0% of the time. How the hell are the Colts going to stop a well rested Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, Adalius Thomas, Terrell Suggs and Trevor Pryce. Those five guys have combined for 48 sacks on the year. Now that is incredible and this is the best defense in the NFL.


I have said it once and i'm not going to say many more times. The Baltimore Ravens have been a very good Super Bowl contender the last 2-3 years but their lack of an NFL-level quarterback has always been the problem. Well, that's no longer a problem as Air McNair is in DA HOUSE and he's ready to lead this team. You guys probably think I am on crack when I say that there is not one team in the NFL that can beat the Ravens in the playoffs this year but I am right and you will see. Even if McNair is not in the TOP 5 of any quarterback stats categories this year, the Ravens defense is so good at getting 3 and outs and they are so good at setting this offense up with great field position. The Ravens passed almost every single test this year. After opening the year 4-0, including a win over San Diego, the Ravens then lost Carolina and Denver but quickly rebounded by spanking New Orleans by 13 points, demolishing the Steelers 27-0 at home and closing out the season on a 9-1 run. The Ravens are unstoppable right now and this game could get ugly. Baltimore comes into this game averaging 23.5 points per home game on 304.9 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. Sounds measly but they always start with a short field. Indianapolis is allowing a whopping 26.5 points per road game this season and are allowing 378.0 total yards on 6.2 yards per play away from home. Not that easy without the Dome now is it? On the ground, RB Jamal Lewis rushed for 1132 yards this season with 9 touchdowns. Lewis is no longer a flashy RB but he does the small things well. Indinapolis still sucks against the run depiste their showing last weekend and they allow 199.8 rushing yards per road game on 5.5 yards per carry. In the air, Steve McNair is completing 62.1% of his passes at home for 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Not impressive at all but the Ravens are 7-1 at home and 6-2 ATS in those games. The Colts road opponents have completed 64.6% of their passes against them for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. McNair is good when he has time to throw which is good news because the Colts have only 6 sacks on the road this year. Road opponents are also converting 53.9% of their 3rd downs against the Colts this season and scoring touchdowns 72.0% of the time in the Red Zone. I don't know what you Colts backers see in this team that you like but in the end, Baltimore will make more big plays and win this game by a larger margin than you think.


I don't even need to mention the history angle here. This game is almost a mirror-image of the Indianapolis-Dallas game back on November 19. The Colts went into Dallas with the perfect record and yet were still a +1 underdog in that game. Sure enough, everyone got suckered into taking the Colts (I was on the Cowboys) and the Romo show ended up winning 21-14. Strangely enough, the betting public seems to be right back on the Colts love boat after the big win over Kansas City last week. BIG MISTAKE GUYS! The line is so juicy at +4 and it's calling all your names. Peyton Manning is probably the best quarterback in the NFL but we all know that he is not good under pressure. The Ravens are probably the most technically sound defense in the NFL and with 2 weeks to prepare for this game, you can bet your bottom dollar they will be ready. Like I said, I think Vegas and the oddsmakers are hanging a huge piece of bait here for the Peyton Manning Fan Clubbers (Mickey Mouse club is more like it). In the end, Baltimore is more than 4 points better than the Colts at home and after this game you will all realize that this ain't no 'KING MANNING', this guy is only 'Archie's Boy'.


Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff road games.



Baltimore 34, Indianapolis 17
Author:  BD [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:44 am ]
Post subject: 
Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 (25 Units)



The Philadelphia Eagles have made me a lot of money since Jeff Garcia has taken over as quarterback but I still think he might be a little bit overrated. However, having seen Jeff play in the CFL for several years and after seeing him play with San Francisco in years past, there are two things I will always remember about Garcia. 1) He is very smart and rarely makes mistakes and 2) He is a winner and always has been. The Eagles are somehow still alive and kicking after losing McNabb for the year but what people seem to forget is that the Eagles have a lot of playoff experience and the Eagles are the farthest thing from being inexperienced when it comes to preparing for big games such as this one. Sure the short week is probably not good and the fact that Lito is going to miss the game is not good either but the Eagles are on a big time roll and if they are going to win this game, it won't be because of their defense but rather the quick start of their offense. The Eagles have won six straight games, are now 4-3-1 ATS on the road this year and should be ready to catch the Saints sleeping. They lost to the Saints by only three point back in October and Andy Reid knows what it takes to beat a rookie coach of the year. The Eagles come into this game averaging 26.0 points per game on the road this season as they average 382.4 total yards and 6.8 yards per play in those games. New Orleans is allowing a quite large 21.4 points per game at home this season for 313.4 total yards and 5.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Brian Westbrook is somewhat the key to this game. Westbrook has rushed for 99.0 yards per road game compared to only 60.7 rushing yards per home game. He is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the road and is also averaging 44.4 receveing yards per road game. New Orleans is allowing 122.9 rushing yards per home game but on 4.4 yards per carry which means Westbrook can break some big ones. In the air, Jeff Garcia is completing 70.1% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt on the road compared to only 52.7% at home for 5.9 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 2 interceptions on the road but shouldn't worry because New Orleans is allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt at home and have only 5 interceptions in the Super Dome. New Orleans is very susceptible to the long pass and seeing that Reggie Brown, Donte Stallworth, Brian Westbrook, LJ Smith, Hank Baskett, Correll Buckhalter and Matt Schobell all have receptions of 50+ yards this year, I think Philly can demolish this secondary. That's 8 players with 50+ yard catches for the Eagles. WOW! Philly is converting 48.9% of their 3rd downs on the road and they have been sensational in the Red Zone. The Saints defense has no big playmakers and that will cost this inexperienced team here as the Eagles should school them.


The New Orleans Saints dominated and walked through the regular season quite easily this year but can they keep it up? I don't think so. Sean Payton won the COACH OF THE YEAR award and the Saints were America's favorite team because of the whole Hurrican Katrina thing. I have to admit that I did cash in on their glory for the most part of this year but in the end, you have to know when to take them and you have to know when to fade them. How can you invest your hard earned money on a Saints team that went only 3-5 ATS at home this year and that lost some crucial big games in their beloved SuperDome? As much as they have played well all season long, they have no playoff experience whatsoever (players and coaches) while the Eagles players have all been there, done that and not to mention they have won six straight games. I bet most of you blind bettors did not know that New Orleans has lost 4 of their last 5 home games and that if Philly's offense so much as shows up in this game, the lights are going to go out early. The Saints don't even know if WR Joe Horn is going to be available for this game. Believe when I say that they need him and his experience. The Saints come into this game averaging 22.1 points per home game this season and they have done that by averaging 369.0 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. Philadelphia's defense is not the best, but they make big plays. They are allowing 22.1 points per road game but on only 324.4 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush rushed for a combined 1600+ yards. However, Reggie has been the much better runner on the road while McAllister is better at home. Regardless, running the ball will be key in this game because the Eagles allow 127.4 rushing yards per road game for 4.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Drew Brees was probably the highest rated QB in the NFL this season. He completed 64.2% of his passes at home for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions (compared to only 2 INT's on the road this year). The Eagles allow 61.8% passes to be completed against them on the road but for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Marues Colston and Devery Henderson are the other two deep ball threats on this team apart from Joe Horn but both are first time playoffers. The Eagles have 16 sacks on the road and have intercepted 9 passes on the road. Lito Sheppard is out and he's the leader in this secondary but Brian Dawkings, Joselio Hanson and Sheldon Brown are all capable of making big plays. New Orleans has often been ineffective in the Red Zone at home this season and if they get down early, coming back will be almost impossible (not by more than 3 points).


The meeting of two cinderellas (Saints vs. Garcia) and one of them has the clock hit midnight on them tonight. The Saints are probably going to approach this game like most bettors will. They are automatically going to think 'Hey, isn't this Eagles team still without Donovan and isn't Lito Sheppard out for the game?' which makes two sheeps in the slaughter house. There is too much love for the Saints and their COACH OF THE YEAR. You can call conspiracy theories all you want and you may be right if the Saints win this game but in the end, even with the three point home playoff advantage given to New Orleans, they are in no way shape or form 5.5 points better than the Eagles. No chance in hell. This is a field goal game at best and the line is inflated. Bettors usually don't worry about a number going from -4 or -5 to -5.5 because games like this almost never come down to 5 points, it's either 4 points or 7 points. There has also been a lot of talk that Philiadelphia is overrated with Garcia and that their fun stops here, but New Orleans is somewhat valued too high by the betting public because of what they have done this year. Back in October, New Orleans beat Philadelphia in this very building 27-24 with Donovan McNabb playing. Well McNabb was 4-5 as a starter this year, Garcia is 6-1. Need I say more?


Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games as the favorite.



Philadelphia 25, New Orleans 24
Author:  good dolphin [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 1:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ravens -4
OVER 48.5 Eagles/Saints
OVER 37.5 Bears/Seahawks
New England +4.5
Author:  reents [ Sat Jan 13, 2007 1:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Today
I wil give a a crazy stat about the Colts in the playoffs since moving to Indianapolis. The only teams the Colts have beat in the playoffs is AFC West teams (Chargers, Chiefs, and Broncos). It may give you a clearer picture for today, my thought is the Ravens stop the Colts running game adn have a good enough secondary to stop Manning and the Ravens score enoug to win and cover.
Author:  BD [ Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:07 am ]
Post subject: 
Chicago Bears -9.5 (50 Units)

I know this may sound stupid to say at this point of the season since they made it this far, but does anyone else just have the feeling that Seattle is a not a team that belongs in the FINAL 8? This has nothing to do with Dallas or anyone else being here but the Seahawks just don't have what it takes to compete with a team like the Bears, let alone most other teams in the playoffs. Okay, they got their big win last week at home in a playoff game but their life-span in these playoffs is already hanging by a shoe lace and I sincerely think that the Seahawks will have that shoe lace cutoff in this game and it will happen often and early. The last time these two teams met, Shaun Alexander was already out with an injury and the Seahawks got their asses handed to them 37-6 on Sunday Night Footbal back in October. You can argue all you want that Alexander would have a difference in that game but the bottom line remains that it was a 31 point loss and the Seahawks looked as lost and confused as anyone has all year against the Bears defense. The only road game that somewhat impressed me was the Seahawks win in Denver this year but after the Broncos showed everyone how they are not much more than pretenders this year, my opinion has somewhat changed. Seattle was 2-6 ATS on the road this year and this is pretty much out of their element. The Seahawks come into this game averaging 19.3 points per game on the road this season as they have averaged 295.4 total yards and 5.1 yards per play in those games. Chicago's defense is very good as they have allowed only 16.4 points per home game this season on 282.3 total yards of offense and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Shaun Alexander is averaging 69.2 rushing yards per road game as opposed to a whopping 110.0 rushing yards per home game. Alexander has only 2 touchdowns and has lost 3 fumbles on the road. The only good news for him is that the Bears are allowing 4.3 yards per carry at home but that goes on only 102.3 rushing yards per game at Soldier Field. In the air, QB Matt Hasselbeck looked completely lost in the first meeting with the Bears and I don't see how that would change. He is completing 61.4% of his passes on the road for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. However, the Bears defense has allowed opposing visiting teams to complete only 54.8% of their passes for only 5.2 yards per carry this season. Seattle's offensive line often has problems protecting Hasselbeck as he has been sacked a whopping 19 times in only 6 road games and the line has allowed 22 total sacks on the road. Chicago's defense is relentless and they had 23 sacks at home this season and 14 interceptions in Soldier Field. The Seahawks are averaging less than 10 points per first half this season and if they can't get going early in this game, the lights could be out in not time. Chicago's defense is going to win this game for them and the offense won't have to do much as has been the case all season long.

The Chicago Bears are a quite possibly the best team in the NFL right now but that is as debatable as it gets and I say that because of how week the NFC appears to be. Would the Bears be where they are had they been in the AFC this season? Possibly. They were 2-2 against AFC teams this year so it's hard to tell. The Bears only lost one game to an NFC team all year long which is quite impressive. I also like the fact that the Bears are 5-3 ATS at home this year and winning at Soldier Field has become next to impossible for most visiting teams from the NFC. As poorly as Rex Grossman and the Bears offense has played this season, you have to look at the good and you have to anticipate that you will see the Bears best effort in what is their most important game in years. Sure they struggled but it's time to turn things up a notch. And for those who keep saying that the Bears played like shit towards the end of the year, I find that hard to understand when they won 6 of their last 8 games this year. It's not easy for a team that was rolling so high to get excited to play against Detroit and Tampa Bay (both ATS losses for the Bears) near the end of the season. The Bears come into this game averaging a whopping 28.6 points per home game this season on 332.4 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not spectacular but you have to understand that their defense will get them the ball back with good field position. Seattle's defense is allowing 22.5 points per road game this season and they have allowed 353.8 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bears RB's are not the most prolific in the NFL but they grind things out and have averaged 123.4 rushing yards per home game on 3.8 yards per carry this season. Seattle's defense has allowed 137.1 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.4 yards per carry and if Thomas Jones wants, he can have another big game on the ground in this one. In the air, QB Rex Grossman has been under big time criticism but let's give him a chance to lead the team he has led all season long. Grossman is completing 56.3% of his passes at home for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Throwing the ball into defenders hands has been Grossman's problem all year long but Seattle do not have many opportunistic players in their secondary. They have intercepted only 4 passes in eight road games this season and if Grossman can get some protection in this game, he'll have a fine game. Seattle is allowing opponents to complete 61.5% of their passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt on the road. Seattle is easily beatable with the long pass and the Bears should be able to stretch things out. Like I said earlier, we don't even need Grossman to have a good game because the defense will make enough big plays and Devon Hester will lead the Bears to good field position on several drives. I think the Bears run away with this one.

I don't know what to make of the line for this game. The -9.5 seems to be designed to attract action on the Bears because they are holding the number below the 10 mark. However, oddsmakers also know that a lot of people are saying that this is too many points for a Divisional playoff game like this and a lot of people think the Seahawks are going to get the job done in this one. As a matter of fact, more than 60% of the public is shockingly on Seattle in this game. What is misleading for most is the way the Bears played in their last 3-4 games of the regular season. Having already clinched home field advantage through the playoffs, why should the Bears care to be impressive against the Lions, Bucs and Packers? They sure as heck didn't. This game is different and the Bears are the real deal in big games. The spread may seem high and all but Chicago's defense is just too good and believe it or not, this defense is the reason they are 13-3 on the year. Don't be misled by the last 3-4 games the Bears played this season.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC opponents.


Chicago 34, Seattle 10
Author:  BD [ Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:13 am ]
Post subject: 
New England Patriots +4.5 (50 Units)

The New England Patriots and Tom Brady continue to impress and continue to cash in for us bettors when it comes to playoff games like last week's -9.5 over the New York Jets. The key to this game though is to avoid a repeat performance of last year's playoff run. Last January, the Patriots beat Jacksonville 28-3 at home in the Wildcard round of the playoffs before heading to Denver and losing 27-13. The Pats turned the ball over 5 times in that game last year and the only lead they ever had was 3-0 in that game. However, that was then and this is now. The difference between last year's Patriots team and this one is that the Pats were 5-3 ATS on the road last year while this year they are a very impressive 7-1 ATS on the road having lost only a game to the Dolphins earlier in the year. Impressive to say the least. The Patriots were made underdogs in three games this year by the oddsmaker and all three times the Pats responded with big wins in Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Tennessee. They actually won those games by a combined 45 total points. The Pats come into this game averaging 27.5 points per road game this season and they have done that by averaging 349.5 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. San Diego's defense has allowed only 16.5 points per home game this season and they have also allowed 305.8 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Corey Dillon had 8 touchdowns on the road while not fumbling one single time. The Pats average 136.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.4 yards per carry this season. San Diego has allowed only 93.4 rushing yards per home game but they have also allowed 4.1 yards per carry in those games. In the air, Brady is completing 62.3% for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions (compared to 9 interceptions at home). San Diego's defense is allowing visting teams to complete 56.9% of their passes at home this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That actually works quite nicely for New England because 11 players have 10 or more receptions on that team and short effective passes is their thing. Brady will have to work quickly to avoid the Chargers pass rush. The Patriots are converting an impressive 47.0% of 3rd down chances on the road this year and scoring touchdowns 72.4% of the time in the Red Zone in those games. Kevin Faulk could be the x-factor in this game because he has returned some big punts on the road this year and averages 13.2 yards per return away from home. If anyone can keep up with the Chargers, it's mot definitely Tom Brady and the Patriots.

The San Diego Chargers knew they would have to pick their poison between the Colts and the Patriots and although the prospect of either the Jets and/or Chiefs winning last weekend was probably what this team was really hoping for, they now have to settle for a Divisional home game against the best playoff team we have seen in several years. The Colts would have probably been a much better matchup for the Chargers because the Chargers actually have the offense to beat Manning unlike the Chiefs or the Ravens who both proved to be nothing but a bunch of pretenders. As well as San Diego has played all season long (they have now won 10 straight games), you cannot forget about their losses to Kansas City and to Baltimore...their only two losses of the year. In one game, the Chiefs decided to shoot things out with the Chargers and they won. In the other game, Baltimore played pure defense and won on a big play late in the game. What you really have to look at here is who the Chargers have played against. In their 10 game win streak, they played against only two playoff bound teams and that was Kansas City and Seattle as they won by a combined total of only 14 points. As a matter of fact, San Diego played against only 3 playoff bound teams all year long, losing twice and winning twice but going 1-3 ATS in the process. The Chargers come into this game averaging 31.1 points per home game this year for 379.5 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. New England however have allowed only 13.5 points per road game this season and they have done it by allowing only 284.0 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, there is no doubt LT is the best RB in the world. Tomlinson has rushed for 117.4 yards per home game on 5.8 yards per carry but surprisingly enough, New England has allowed only 86.9 rushing yards per road game and only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Philip Rivers is playing in his first ever playoff game. Rivers has completed 62.1% of his passes at home this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. New England's secondary is without Harrison once again but they can compensate and have no problems. The Pats have allowed their road opponents to complete only 56.1% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Pats have 25 sacks on the road this season and they also have 8 interceptions to go with that. This game could essentially come down to who makes the biggest mistake. Tomlinson has not fumbled at home all year, Dillon has not fumbled on the road all year. Rivers has thrown 5 interceptions at home, Brady only 3 on the road. The Chargers rely heavily on big plays from their stars as they convert only 40.0% of 3rd down chances and score touchdowns only 57.1% of the time once inside the Red Zone at home. The best part about that is that New England has held road opponents to only a Field Goal in 80% of times their road opponents entered the Red Zone this season. This game comes down to heart and determination and I think the Chargers could be a little shell shocked by the Pats. Give me Brady in a shootout.

The line has been set perfectly by the oddsmakers. This line is going to have bettors torn left and right on which team to take. I wouldn't be surprised if the money ends up being an even 50% on both sides of this game and I say that because the Pats have always been a public favorite when it comes to betting and San Diego is arguable the best team in the NFL this season, they have had two weeks off and they are playing at home which makes it even more enticing to go with them in this game. New England bettors like myself are not jumping off the Tom Brady/Bill Bellichik train that is now 11-1 or something like that in the playoffs while San Diego bettors are more intrigued by the NFL's MVP (LT) and the fact that the Patriots have a lot of key injuries. In the end though, this is New England, this is a playoff game and this is not Denver last January. That was an ugly game for the Pats where Tom Brady could never get things going. As much as this game ressembles that Denver game and the scenario is almost identical, the Pats actually matchup nicely against the Chargers who may be a little too confident heading into this game.

Trend of the Game: Tom Brady is 11-1 SU in the playoffs.


New England 34, San Diego 31
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