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| Super Bowl XLI: Bears vs. Colts https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=9192 |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Super Bowl XLI: Bears vs. Colts |
Opening Line: Colts -7 Total: 49 Moneyline: Indy-265; Bears +225 Team Totals: Indy: 28; Bears 21 I've already bought a few units on the Bears +7 and am holding a +420 moneyline ticket on the Bears (previously posted). Let the props and predictions begin... |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:24 pm ] |
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i wanna know what Stu thinks....but, I'm emailing my Grandpa in Vegas... $100...Bears plus the points and the over... |
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| Author: | BD [ Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:24 pm ] |
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49 points is quite a bit.... |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:31 pm ] |
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really? ....there was 54 points in the NFC championship.... |
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| Author: | Chus [ Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:16 am ] |
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I know it is blasphemy, but I have the Colts at +1146 to win the Super Bowl from when the playoffs started. |
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| Author: | BD [ Mon Jan 22, 2007 7:02 am ] |
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doug - evergreen park wrote: really?
....there was 54 points in the NFC championship.... What does that mean ? 2 weeks is a lot of preparation, teams may come out slowly, Bears are going to have to slow Manning...not saying 49 is ridiculous, but if the Bears play their game, I think it goes under, at least in my initial thoughts. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:34 am ] |
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Chus, You could lock in a $500 profit by middling it...and you would have a 7 point middle to win both ways. If you have $100 on Indy to win $1146, you could... Buy $660/600 on the Bears +7...and you could win both ways if Indy wins by 1-6 points, win $1146 if Colts win by 7, or at worst, win 1146 and lose 660 if Colts win (net +486), or win 600 and lose 100 (+500 net) if Bears win. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:46 am ] |
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I'll give you my Super Bowl betting analysis in brief: The Bears are the better rushing team, the better defense, and the higher-scoring team and are getting 7 points. Applying Buffone's three rules of football: The Bears run the ball better, stop the run better and have the better pass rush. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:27 pm ] |
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I will be taking the Bears with the money line. I imagine "my guy" will be playing around with the spread but I think that money line will stay consistent...and I think the Bears will win. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:21 pm ] |
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I will be at the Las Vegas Hilton from Friday until Monday of SB weekend. If anyone wants to hook up, send me a PM. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:02 am ] |
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Having made my case for the Bears, the question becomes, why is the line 7? I think the Colts are favored by 7 because they have significant edges in key matchups. Here is the devil's advocate analysis: 1) Edge to the Colts D-line over the Bears O-line. The Bears O-line did fine against average d-lines like New Orleans and Seattle, but didn't do very well against the better defensive lines they faced. The Bears had trouble with good defensive linemen and pass rushers like Jason Taylor of Miami, Berry of the Cardinals, the Vikings and the Pats. Dwight Freeney could have a big day beating Tait like a rented mule. Will Smith was handling Tait early in the 2nd half and was getting into the Bears backfield on almost every play. The Bears made big plays anyway, but Tait's softness against quality pass rushers has to be a concern. And Dwight Freeny is certainly one of the best. By comparison, the Colts O-line handled the Pats' pass rush and pressure much better than the Bears O-line did. It's interesting that the Colts put up 38 on the Pats, while the Bears managed only 13. This is why I think the Bears will have to be able to run the ball, because Grossman will be under pressure when he drops back. This might be the key to the game: The Bears must run the ball against the Colts run D or Rex might be toast against the Colts pass rush. And we all know how scatter-brained he gets when he's under pressure. 2) Edge to Manning and the Colts receivers vs. the Bears' secondary. Big mismatch here. If the Bears don't get a pass rush (and it's possible they won't against a pretty good Colts O-line), Manning will pick apart the Bears secondary. Peanut, Vasher, Harris, et al cannot cover Wayne and Harrison in a conventional cover 2. Too much speed from the Colts wideouts will beget too much separation. If the Bears get no speed rush, they will give up big yards in the passing game. I'm not sure the Bears will get much of a pass rush as the Colts' O-Line showed against the Pats and the Ravens, that they are one of the best. So the key here again becomes the Bears controlling the clock and keeping the Colts O off the field. Key to the game is the Bears' running game....to seize on the Colts' principal weakness - run defense, keep the pass rush at bay, and control clock to keep the Colts' passing game on the sidelines. Obviously, I think they can do this. Let's just hope Ron Turner doesn't come into the game enamored with the passing game. The Bears rushed for 192 yards yesterday. I'd like to see them come into this game with a mission to get 250. Let's hope they do that and succeed. If they don't dominate the run game, I don't think they will win. |
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| Author: | Beardown [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:10 am ] |
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I don't get this line at all coast. Book makers goal is to get equal action on both sides. This line won't acomplish that. The Bears will be pounded at this line. It won't move more then 1.5 down because Vegas doesn't want to create an unbeleivably desirable middle for early players. It just seems odd to me. I thought it would be 4.5 to 5. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:28 am ] |
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So did I, Beardown. However, the books know the kinds of volumes they get on teams and I suspect the volumes on the Colts have been significantly more than the Bears this season. Apparently, there was a significant inbalance of action on the Colts vs. the Pats yesterday and the public cleaned up with the Colts. That might also play into this. There are a lot of square bettors with Colts money in their pockets. And finally, favorites are often inflated for the Super Bowl because square bettors generally prefer the flashy offense and the better QB. I think there is great value for the Bears here...BUT...I would advise people who like the Bears to buy early and lock in 7 or buy up to 7.5. There is a HUGE difference between betting a team at +7 and betting them at +6. I think the line will be 6 or maybe even 5.5 by gametime. However, I might be underestimating the Colts' money and it could stay at 7. I'm not taking the chance, though. Books won't worry too much about middles as long as the number stays above 4. 6 is a fairly dead number (few games end on 6) and 5 is the deadest number from 1-10. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:34 am ] |
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Another possible bet I'm keeping my eye on is taking the Bears team total OVER. Obviously, I like the Bears to run the ball and score points. Currently, with the game total at 49, the team totals are 28 and 21. The total is trending toward the under and should the game total drop a point or two, it is possible that the team totals might fall under 28 and 21. I like the Bears over 21, but would love it a lot more if it fell to 20.5 or even 20. If it fell below 20 (which is very unlikely), I would pound the Bears team total over. |
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| Author: | Beardown [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:35 am ] |
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Hmm. What you say there must be true Coast. Vegas must know the betting trends. They just don't have a guy throwing out a number willy nilly. Maybe they are over compensating for the "favorite bettors" against the huge play that the Bears will get for being the Bears. I'm convinced there are more Bears fans that are Vegas gamblers. Chicago has a huge contingent in Vegas. |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:47 am ] |
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Coast2Coast wrote: ..BUT...I would advise people who like the Bears to buy early and lock in 7 or buy up to 7.5. There is a HUGE difference between betting a team at +7 and betting them at +6. I think the line will be 6 or maybe even 5.5 by gametime. .
Unfortunately, Bruiser at the corner tap does not give out early lines. Also, since it is the Bears, I'm expecting the number to be chipped by .5 off Vegas lines. I also imagine that he was able to buy a good amount of the Bears at 7 which will give him all the more incentive to push down the line. I have a feeling old Bruiser will be at 5.5 at Super Bowl -2 hours. Sucks for me. |
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| Author: | Mustang Rob [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:38 am ] |
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I've been lurking all season long, but I'll chime in for the big game. Anticipating a fairly high scoring game and movement of the line to 5&1/2 by kickoff, I jumped early and put about 75% of my Youwager.com balance on a 6pt teaser: Bears + 13, Over 42 1/2 The other 25% of my balance I'll keep for the game props. |
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| Author: | Bud Dude [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:57 pm ] |
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This game gets more casual bettors than any other. The casual fan knows all about Peyton Manning and his "great offense". You look at the Bears and see Rex Grossman leading the O and you think , YUCK!! 7 is a fair # to get money on both sides. We are thinking it will come down because we are in Chicago and of course most here will take the Bears. Nationally I gotta think most will pick the Colts to win so laying 7 will be no biggie to those folks. Yes your local guy might have this line at 6 or 5 but I think nationally this line stays where it is or maybe even goes up a little. Im gonna wait it out and see if I can get 7.5. |
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| Author: | Beardown [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:16 pm ] |
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Good point. No I'm not upset because I'm a Bears fan. Hell I'll gladly take the 7 if they want to give it to me. I was just trying to understand Vegas logic. You guys all made good points. Vegas knows what they are doing. So in the end this line is where it should be. They'll get their equal action. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:36 pm ] |
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so...my Grandma in Vegas tells me that off-strip casinos are not taking any bets on the Bears until next Wednesday. she went to three different joints and the only bet you can place is the Colts -7.... is this normal? seems kinda shitty to me.... |
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| Author: | Mr. Reason [ Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:17 am ] |
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Coach Crapowski wrote: doug - evergreen park wrote: so...my Grandma in Vegas tells me that off-strip casinos are not taking any bets on the Bears until next Wednesday. she went to three different joints and the only bet you can place is the Colts -7.... is this normal? seems kinda shitty to me.... Is her name Ann by any chance? I'm eighty-eight and I'm in sports all my life. Belly laugh, thanks Coach. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Wed Jan 24, 2007 8:54 am ] |
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no...but, that was funny. so anyone have any information I can actually use? Coast??? |
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| Author: | good dolphin [ Wed Jan 24, 2007 10:03 am ] |
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doug - evergreen park wrote: so...my Grandma in Vegas tells me that off-strip casinos are not taking any bets on the Bears until next Wednesday. she went to three different joints and the only bet you can place is the Colts -7....
is this normal? seems kinda shitty to me.... I thought the point was to get equal bets on either side. It does seem odd...but so does an old lady driving around to different sports books to lay down on some action. |
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| Author: | Coast2Coast [ Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:30 am ] |
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I've never heard of such a thing, Doug. A game is either on the board or it isn't. I called and asked a few guys in Vegas I know. One guy is a manager at Coast Casinos (they have a few different ones offstrip) who says they are accepting money on both sides. Another guy says he was in Sams (another that caters to locals) and they are open for action on both sides. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Wed Jan 24, 2007 11:56 am ] |
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thanks for the info....i'll let them know. |
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| Author: | MUScholar21 [ Fri Jan 26, 2007 12:32 pm ] |
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Here is some of my admittedly novice research. I love the Bears getting the points. The Colts are 9-7-1 against the spread this year, and are 3-5-1 when favored by 5 points or more (2-0 in pick 'ems). They are 3-0 in the playoffs against the spread. On the road against the spread, Indy is 4-5, but as a road favorite they are only 2-5. In the entire season, the Colts have only won 5 of their nineteen games by more than 7, and two more were by exactly 7. The Bears are 12-5 against the spread, have never been more than a five point underdog, but are 3-0 when they are the underdogs. They are 0-1 in pick 'em games, and 1-1 in the playoffs against the spread. On the road Chicago is 6-2, and as a road dog they are 2-0. Since Bob Sanders came back, the Colts have stopped the run. However, New England ran the ball the most against them, and that was only 24 times - the Bears (unless they go down big early) will definitely run it more than that. The Colts are still giving up 3.6 yards per carry in the playoffs, but teams have been abandoning the run early. The Bears will wear them down (in my opinion). Again, I am a novice, but I don't see how you can't take the Bears and the points. |
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| Author: | Chus [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:37 am ] |
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Hester is +2500 to be MVP of the game. I am gonna put a small wager on this. |
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| Author: | doug - evergreen park [ Fri Feb 02, 2007 12:31 pm ] |
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well...we got the money line at 210. all the Bears have to do is win! |
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