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SPMack will drop his 14 horse superfecta special!

Give it to me nate!

Well, Walt, AP has serious pedigree issues on his dam's side that would cause us to question his ability to stay the twelve panels. I don't think this is some kind of walkover for the horse. He's going to have to work for it.

I don't believe they're going to try to wire this field. If Espinoza lets Materiality grab an easy lead and waltz the first half mile, it isn't going to be a cakewalk to get by him. Also, if AP does grab the front, I have to believe somebody is going to take a crack at him. Pletcher may be putting a horse in there specifically for that purpose.

Finally, you can see that Frosted is the wise guy horse. I don't care for him in here. I think there will be several good horses in front of him at the quarter pole, including AP, and he may pass some of them, but I doubt he will pass all of them. I'm convinced both Frosted and AP will be overbet, but we'll have to see.

In many horse races I play my fave number as a tri box. 647. Any input?

pittmike wrote:

In many horse races I play my fave number as a tri box. 647. Any input?

Mike that is the only way big$$$$$$$$ Tri's are hit...if anyone tells you they hit a huge tri by handicapping is full o' shit

JORR - I get the logic but I just cant figure Keen Ice in. He's slower than these horses and even if he is picking up the pieces late, I still can't see him winning.

If you are figuring him in, you got to figure Tale of the Verve in as well - similar speed numbers, ran a quality race in the Preakness and is fit (bullet work)

And I see Frosted picking up the pieces more so than Keen Ice. He ran a huge Derby to come up short.

I am curious who will take the front. I would guess AP will be go to the lead if no one comes out.

saying the chalk dropped anchor in the Derby is way off base

I have him out of the Derby at 51.92 feet per second for the final fraction.
Not blistering but not close to crawling home. Plenty of reasons to like the chalk, plenty of reasons to takes a stand against him.

by comparison Smarty Jones final fraction out of the Derby was 50.97 fps

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 22, 2015 8:27 am ]
Post subject:	The Belmont
You all have 15 days to tell me how AP won't win this, and the Met Mile got me tingling!

Author:	bigfan [ Fri May 22, 2015 8:33 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
SPMack will drop his 14 horse superfecta special! Give it to me nate!

Author:	Rod [ Fri May 22, 2015 9:02 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Well, Walt, AP has serious pedigree issues on his dam's side that would cause us to question his ability to stay the twelve panels. I don't think this is some kind of walkover for the horse. He's going to have to work for it. I don't believe they're going to try to wire this field. If Espinoza lets Materiality grab an easy lead and waltz the first half mile, it isn't going to be a cakewalk to get by him. Also, if AP does grab the front, I have to believe somebody is going to take a crack at him. Pletcher may be putting a horse in there specifically for that purpose. Finally, you can see that Frosted is the wise guy horse. I don't care for him in here. I think there will be several good horses in front of him at the quarter pole, including AP, and he may pass some of them, but I doubt he will pass all of them. I'm convinced both Frosted and AP will be overbet, but we'll have to see.

Author:	spmack [ Fri May 22, 2015 9:16 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
bigfan wrote: SPMack will drop his 14 horse superfecta special! Give it to me nate! Hey I only do that for the Derby! This was the first year in a very long time that it was chalky.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Sat May 23, 2015 6:21 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Yes, Frosted is running. Rested after coming 4th in the Derby. That's my horse.

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The Belmont https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=94112	Page 1 of 3

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 29, 2015 6:21 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Well, Walt, AP has serious pedigree issues on his dam's side that would cause us to question his ability to stay the twelve panels. I don't think this is some kind of walkover for the horse. He's going to have to work for it. I don't believe they're going to try to wire this field. If Espinoza lets Materiality grab an easy lead and waltz the first half mile, it isn't going to be a cakewalk to get by him. Also, if AP does grab the front, I have to believe somebody is going to take a crack at him. Pletcher may be putting a horse in there specifically for that purpose. Finally, you can see that Frosted is the wise guy horse. I don't care for him in here. I think there will be several good horses in front of him at the quarter pole, including AP, and he may pass some of them, but I doubt he will pass all of them. I'm convinced both Frosted and AP will be overbet, but we'll have to see. http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/belmont_dosage.htm

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:08 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Carpe Diem the 1st to bail

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:15 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont

Author:	spmack [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:35 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Hot off the presses.....

Author:	Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
If you are AP's connections you want the track fast or absolutely sloppy - so many odd things happen on good/muddy/wet fast tracks.

Author:	doug - evergreen park [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:07 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
5,6,8 tri-box?

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Ap looks like he lost some weight

Author:	Hawkeye Vince [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
If anyone is going to beat him I think it's Materiality.

Author:	pittmike [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:50 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
In many horse races I play my fave number as a tri box. 647. Any input?

Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:43 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
I've done a lot of work on this race. Here's my line: American Pharoah: 9/5 Keen Ice: 4/1 Materiality: 6/1 Madefromlucky: 6/1 Frosted: 15/1 Tale of Verve: 20/1 Mubtaahij: 32/1 Frammento: 35/1 It seems obvious to me that the right bet here is going to be Keen Ice. American Pharoah and Frosted are certain to be bad underlays. Materiality is likely to be an underlay as well. And I like Materiality a lot. But I just can't see betting him in this spot at his likely 5 or 6 to 1, when I'm probably going to be getting a lot more with Keen Ice and Madefromlucky, two horses with chances as good or better than Materiality in this spot. If Materiality is around 10/1, I'll have to rethink things.

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Author:	pittmike [ Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:36 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Walt Williams Neck wrote: pittmike wrote: In many horse races I play my fave number as a tri box. 647. Any input? Mike that is the only way big$$$$$$$$ Tri's are hit...if anyone tells you they hit a huge tri by handicapping is full o' shit Ok then 6,4,7 it is.

Author:	spmack [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:35 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Belmont PPs http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/B ... akes15.pdf

Author:	Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:45 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
JORR - I get the logic but I just cant figure Keen Ice in. He's slower than these horses and even if he is picking up the pieces late, I still can't see him winning. If you are figuring him in, you got to figure Tale of the Verve in as well - similar speed numbers, ran a quality race in the Preakness and is fit (bullet work)

Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:56 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Hawkeye Vince wrote: JORR - I get the logic but I just cant figure Keen Ice in. He's slower than these horses and even if he is picking up the pieces late, I still can't see him winning. If you are figuring him in, you got to figure Tale of the Verve in as well - similar speed numbers, ran a quality race in the Preakness and is fit (bullet work) Well, I just don't really think Tale of Verve belongs. My belief is that he threw in a fluky race on a wet track in Baltimore. In fact, the more I look at it, the more I think the Preakness was just a horseshit field that has people fooled into thinking AP is stronger than he is. Dortmund wasn't as good as he was earlier in California and Firing Line almost fell down. I think it's highly likely that Keen Ice will be moving faster than everyone else in the last furlong. He's made to go the 12 panels. Madefromlucky might be like that too. I don't think either of those two is going to stop going forward as this race goes on. And AP has dropped anchor in the final furlong of the first two legs. It just wasn't noticeable because nobody else was moving much better. The race is going to come down to the pace scenario. No doubt Keen Ice needs some luck. If AP waltzes around the track, someone might catch him, but it's going to have to be someone who is sitting pretty close. Of course, I can understand how someone could look at my line and think 4/1 is insane for Keen Ice. But my thinking is that if they ran this thing 100 times the front would completely collapse about twenty times and Keen Ice would be the guy picking up the pieces.

Author:	Hawkeye Vince [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:00 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
And I see Frosted picking up the pieces more so than Keen Ice. He ran a huge Derby to come up short. I am curious who will take the front. I would guess AP will be go to the lead if no one comes out.

Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:08 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Hawkeye Vince wrote: And I see Frosted picking up the pieces more so than Keen Ice. He ran a huge Derby to come up short. I am curious who will take the front. I would guess AP will be go to the lead if no one comes out. I think he should. Especially if he's the world beater his connections keep insisting he is. I would guess Materiality has to go too. That may be a bit of a cat and mouse between Velazquez and Espinoza. Horses aside, I like John R. to get the best of that. I could see Espinoza getting cute and Materiality dancing to a 49 half. If that happens Materiality will be hard to pass.

Author:	Buster [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
saying the chalk dropped anchor in the Derby is way off base

Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Buster wrote: saying the chalk dropped anchor in the Derby is way off base Well, his Bris late speed fig doesn't compare favorably to past Belmont winners. But I guess he doesn't have to race against them.

Author:	Buster [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
I have him out of the Derby at 51.92 feet per second for the final fraction. Not blistering but not close to crawling home. Plenty of reasons to like the chalk, plenty of reasons to takes a stand against him.

Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:42 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Buster wrote: I have him out of the Derby at 51.92 feet per second for the final fraction. Not blistering but not close to crawling home. Plenty of reasons to like the chalk, plenty of reasons to takes a stand against him. Going into the Derby, I thought this was an exceptional and deep group. I don't think I was alone in that line of thinking. But since then I've come to reevaluate and I now believe it's a pretty damn ordinary generation.

Author:	Buster [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
it's a very fast group and more than a couple of them are very fast time will tell as to the durability of them

Author:	Buster [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
by comparison Smarty Jones final fraction out of the Derby was 50.97 fps it's anyone's guess who is going to be left standing after 11 furlongs all things being equal I hope the chalk gets beat

Author:	Rod [ Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Belmont
Buster wrote: by comparison Smarty Jones final fraction out of the Derby was 50.97 fps And he didn't win the Belmont. He did race valiantly though. As you say, time will tell us more about this generation. I have a hard time seeing it as stronger than California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Wicked Strong, etc.