You all have 15 days to tell me how AP won't win this, and the Met Mile got me tingling!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

SPMack will drop his 14 horse superfecta special!

Give it to me nate!

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Well, Walt, AP has serious pedigree issues on his dam's side that would cause us to question his ability to stay the twelve panels. I don't think this is some kind of walkover for the horse. He's going to have to work for it.

I don't believe they're going to try to wire this field. If Espinoza lets Materiality grab an easy lead and waltz the first half mile, it isn't going to be a cakewalk to get by him. Also, if AP does grab the front, I have to believe somebody is going to take a crack at him. Pletcher may be putting a horse in there specifically for that purpose.

Finally, you can see that Frosted is the wise guy horse. I don't care for him in here. I think there will be several good horses in front of him at the quarter pole, including AP, and he may pass some of them, but I doubt he will pass all of them. I'm convinced both Frosted and AP will be overbet, but we'll have to see.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Hey I only do that for the Derby! This was the first year in a very long time that it was chalky.

_________________

Yes, Frosted is running. Rested after coming 4th in the Derby. That's my horse.

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Carpe Diem the 1st to bail

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Hot off the presses.....

_________________

If you are AP's connections you want the track fast or absolutely sloppy - so many odd things happen on good/muddy/wet fast tracks.

5,6,8 tri-box?

_________________
@audioidkid

Ap looks like he lost some weight

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

If anyone is going to beat him I think it's Materiality.

Heard this little tidbit no horse had won the Triple Crown without having a race over Big Sandy

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

In many horse races I play my fave number as a tri box. 647. Any input?

_________________
Elections have consequences.

Mike that is the only way big$$$$$$$$ Tri's are hit...if anyone tells you they hit a huge tri by handicapping is full o' shit

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Ok then 6,4,7 it is.

_________________
Elections have consequences.

I've done a lot of work on this race.

Here's my line:

American Pharoah: 9/5
Keen Ice: 4/1
Materiality: 6/1
Madefromlucky: 6/1
Frosted: 15/1
Tale of Verve: 20/1
Mubtaahij: 32/1
Frammento: 35/1

It seems obvious to me that the right bet here is going to be Keen Ice. American Pharoah and Frosted are certain to be bad underlays. Materiality is likely to be an underlay as well. And I like Materiality a lot. But I just can't see betting him in this spot at his likely 5 or 6 to 1, when I'm probably going to be getting a lot more with Keen Ice and Madefromlucky, two horses with chances as good or better than Materiality in this spot. If Materiality is around 10/1, I'll have to rethink things.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Belmont PPs

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/B ... akes15.pdf

_________________

JORR - I get the logic but I just cant figure Keen Ice in. He's slower than these horses and even if he is picking up the pieces late, I still can't see him winning.

If you are figuring him in, you got to figure Tale of the Verve in as well - similar speed numbers, ran a quality race in the Preakness and is fit (bullet work)

Well, I just don't really think Tale of Verve belongs. My belief is that he threw in a fluky race on a wet track in Baltimore. In fact, the more I look at it, the more I think the Preakness was just a horseshit field that has people fooled into thinking AP is stronger than he is. Dortmund wasn't as good as he was earlier in California and Firing Line almost fell down.

I think it's highly likely that Keen Ice will be moving faster than everyone else in the last furlong. He's made to go the 12 panels. Madefromlucky might be like that too. I don't think either of those two is going to stop going forward as this race goes on. And AP has dropped anchor in the final furlong of the first two legs. It just wasn't noticeable because nobody else was moving much better.

The race is going to come down to the pace scenario. No doubt Keen Ice needs some luck. If AP waltzes around the track, someone might catch him, but it's going to have to be someone who is sitting pretty close.

Of course, I can understand how someone could look at my line and think 4/1 is insane for Keen Ice. But my thinking is that if they ran this thing 100 times the front would completely collapse about twenty times and Keen Ice would be the guy picking up the pieces.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

And I see Frosted picking up the pieces more so than Keen Ice. He ran a huge Derby to come up short.

I am curious who will take the front. I would guess AP will be go to the lead if no one comes out.

I think he should. Especially if he's the world beater his connections keep insisting he is. I would guess Materiality has to go too. That may be a bit of a cat and mouse between Velazquez and Espinoza. Horses aside, I like John R. to get the best of that. I could see Espinoza getting cute and Materiality dancing to a 49 half. If that happens Materiality will be hard to pass.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

saying the chalk dropped anchor in the Derby is way off base

Well, his Bris late speed fig doesn't compare favorably to past Belmont winners. But I guess he doesn't have to race against them.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I have him out of the Derby at 51.92 feet per second for the final fraction.
Not blistering but not close to crawling home. Plenty of reasons to like the chalk, plenty of reasons to takes a stand against him.

Going into the Derby, I thought this was an exceptional and deep group. I don't think I was alone in that line of thinking. But since then I've come to reevaluate and I now believe it's a pretty damn ordinary generation.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

it's a very fast group and more than a couple of them are very fast

time will tell as to the durability of them

by comparison Smarty Jones final fraction out of the Derby was 50.97 fps

it's anyone's guess who is going to be left standing after 11 furlongs

all things being equal I hope the chalk gets beat

And he didn't win the Belmont. He did race valiantly though.

As you say, time will tell us more about this generation. I have a hard time seeing it as stronger than California Chrome, Shared Belief, Tonalist, Wicked Strong, etc.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don