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Hawthorne Picks today
https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=96581		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  spmack [ Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Hawthorne Picks today
Someone asked me to help them with some opinions on today's race, and after all the writing I figured I'd share with all....take them with a grain of salt...I'm not as good as JORR or WWN with these.



Like I said, Hawthorne and Arlington is like a minor league track except for a few days out of the year, so a lot of these are just guesses.


PICK 5 bet below (which means the first 5 races on one ticket, and you have to choose the winner)

If you want to try a 20 cent Pick 5 bet for $24 (this is if you make it to Hawthorne by the first race), Try this:

R1: 2 , 4 , 5, 6 , 7
R2: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
R3: 1, 3, 4, 6
R4: 1
R5: 5


R1 - These are 2 year olds (aka Rookies) and a few are running for the first time, so all I can tell you is to go where the board is going. Probably the 2 because Tim Thornton is one of top jockeys in Chicago.
For Starters, you can either do a straight bet of the #2 horse (The Cake and I) to win, or do a 20 cent trifecta with 2/ALL/ALL (which means you pick the 2 to win, any horse to come in 2nd, any horse to come in 3rd). Total cost of that bet is $6. You may not win much but it's only the first race of the day.

R2 - I like the 4 (Codechief). He's dropping in class which means he's facing lesser competition than his last race. Another horse dropping in class is the 8 (Stockholder), so that would be my top 2.

R3 - One of the better races on the card. I like the 6 (Purely Given) because this horse has won 3 out of last 4, and came in 2nd last time, so this horse is a competitor. My top 4 are 6-3-1-2.

R4 - Turf (grass) race, and is probably my best bet of the day...if you have $20, put it on the 1 (I'm So Fancy). I can't see this horse losing unless it's a first timer like the 3, 7, or 8. Only thing is the 1 will probably be a heavy favorite so even a $20 bet may not win you too much. I love turf races because you can see a horse come from last to first at the top of stretch.

R5 - Not too strong of an opinion here except I like the favorite (5 - Bull Market Richie). Last time the horse ran at Hawthorne earlier in the year, he won. Also ran well at Arlington over the summer, so I understand why this horse is the favorite. Sorry.

20 cent LATE Pick 4 Races 6-9 total cost $14.40

R6 4, 5
R7 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11
R8 1, 3, 4
R9 5,6

R6 - Another turf race. I feel like it will be between the 4 (Nix Danger) and 5 (Run Fort Run). Both have run well. I give a slight edge to the 5 if you need a make a choice between the two.

R7 - Probably the crappiest race of the day. When I say any horse can win this regardless of their odds, any horse can win. The horses who have ran haven't sniffed a win, so go with a horse that hasn't raced yet, like the 6 Go Lady Jay, who's had some good workouts.

R8 - Turf race, and the 2nd best race of the day in my opinion. I think the 1 Hollywood Script is the best, I just wished it were a better jockey. He will probably try to get the horse to the front to lead or close to it, but that may burn him out at the end. If there's a horse than can beat the 1, try the 4 Rivery Hall or the 3 Fist Full.

R9 - Not too much opinion here....the 6 Back Lite will probably be the deserved favorite. I'd also look at the 5 Out of the Woods who won last time out at Arlington in August.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hawthorne Picks today
WTF Santa Anita is running :wink:
Author:  spmack [ Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hawthorne Picks today
I gave out 5 out of 9 winners....that's 56 pct! You got guys on horse racing websites that will charge at minimum $10 per card per track for giving out winners at 20-30 pct!!!! Fuck them! :D


I hope someone took these and cashed a little something, even though the winners didn't pay too much except Go Lady Jay paid decently in R6.
Author:  Rod [ Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hawthorne Picks today
I liked one horse on that card, Run Fort Run in the sixth. Damn, he got bet down late!
Author:  spmack [ Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hawthorne Picks today
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I liked one horse on that card, Run Fort Run in the sixth. Damn, he got bet down late!

Yeah I felt the same way about the 1 Hollywood Script in the 7th. Kept seeing him bouncing up and down, one time as high as double digits before going back to 2-1. The jockey pretty much did as I said which shocked me.
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