You would mock the hell out of Frank for a post like that.
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| CUBS WORLD SERIES https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=99118 |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | CUBS WORLD SERIES |
PredictionMachine.com has already played the entire 2016 MLB Regular season and playoffs 50,000 times using its simulation technology - that's more than 120 million games played! The Chicago Cubs win the World Series (for the first time in 108 years) a league-high 15.2% of the time, almost 50% more than the closest contender. The New York Mets (10.5%), Houston Astros (9.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8.2%) and Washington Nationals (6.5%) round out the five most likely champions. The parity in the MLB is astounding this year as every team in the American League has at least a 0.2% chance of winning the World Series, while only four teams in the National League win it all fewer than 100 times in 50,000 simulations. |
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| Author: | Regular Reader [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
You would mock the hell out of Frank for a post like that.
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
Regular Reader wrote: You would mock the hell out of Frank for a post like that. Frank would not be capable of understanding a post like that...yet alone copied and pasted. Arguing with the post is like Sox fans arguing with Pecota predictions. It is a number from a computer. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1. vegas had the them at 10-1 to open, the public bet them down to 4-1 |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
bigfan wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1. vegas had the them at 10-1 to open, the public bet them down to 4-1 Are you saying Cub fans are stupid?
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: bigfan wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1. vegas had the them at 10-1 to open, the public bet them down to 4-1 Are you saying Cub fans are stupid? I will compare a Cubs wager of winning the world series in vegas to dropping a coin in a fountain. Its like a wish (Have fun with that JORR) It is the ultimate in "see I knew this was the year" evidence that you were in on it! and being part of it. The Prediction Machine lends a little more credit to the betting # going down, but its baseball...and shit happens, so while I love the chances...the odss are now reflective of the action rather than the true talent on the field. |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
bigfan wrote: The Chicago Cubs win the World Series (for the first time in 108 years) a league-high 15.2% of the time, almost 50% more than the closest contender. The New York Mets (10.5%), Houston Astros (9.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8.2%) and Washington Nationals (6.5%) round out the five most likely champions. At first glance, it sounds great (league-high 15%!), but then one realizes that it means the "field" is at 85%. The good news is that if the Cubs can maintain that 15% each year for the next five years, the odds of them winning the WS at least once would be about 55%. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES |
Jaw Breaker wrote: bigfan wrote: The Chicago Cubs win the World Series (for the first time in 108 years) a league-high 15.2% of the time, almost 50% more than the closest contender. The New York Mets (10.5%), Houston Astros (9.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8.2%) and Washington Nationals (6.5%) round out the five most likely champions. At first glance, it sounds great (league-high 15%!), but then one realizes that it means the "field" is at 85%. The good news is that if the Cubs can maintain that 15% each year for the next five years, the odds of them winning the WS at least once would be about 55%. Throw it all out once you get to playoff baseball. Guessing Dbacks had a bad % at one time and that % goes way up if Johnson and Schilling are set to pitch 3 games each in a 7 games series. |
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