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| 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=99255 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
You watching this one, JORR? |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Dignified Rube wrote: You watching this one, JORR? Yeah. The Derby winner could be in there. Good betting race. Who do you like? |
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| Author: | spmack [ Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
This seems to be the year of the Gray/Roans (We might see a good 5 or 6 of them in the Derby), and there's a few in this race I'm looking at: Cupid for Baffert, and my longshot would be Cherry Wine. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: You watching this one, JORR? Yeah. The Derby winner could be in there. Good betting race. Who do you like? Suddenbreakingnews is my pick. He can run down anyone from behind. Definitely has the distance for the 1 1/4 mi. Kentucky Derby. He's not as fast as Danzig Candy, though. The horse finished his last race in 1:45 after coming all the way from behind the pack to win. Big field in this race with 15 horses running, so it should be a good test. Here's a clip of Suddenbreakingnews. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnighQqBJrg |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
No one gives a shit about my opinion so here it is....so here goes only two horses won graded races the horse Rube likes and the one I'm taking a flyer on Ralis. Won the Hopeful lost the Champagne in the slop , had road trouble in the BC Juv, Hasn't raced since October and don't know if it can go the 1-1/16th just money 
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Your opinion is always valued in these horse racing threads, Walt. Anyway, I like Rube's horse and I think he's probably better than Discreteness but I figure Discreteness will be about 4 times better in price and Suddenbreakingnews isn't that much better. In fact, Discreteness has already beaten him. Jon Court is a crafty old guy but not a sexy jockey and that is only going to help the price. Also, Cherry Wine appears to be a monster once dumbfuck Romans figured out he doesn't belong on the grass. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Your opinion is always valued in these horse racing threads, Walt. Anyway, I like Rube's horse and I think he's probably better than Discreteness but I figure Discreteness will be about 4 times better in price and Suddenbreakingnews isn't that much better. In fact, Discreteness has already beaten him. Jon Court is a crafty old guy but not a sexy jockey and that is only going to help the price. All the favorites in the race have expensive odds. Suddenbreakingnews should not be getting 3-1 when he finished his last race more than a second behind Cupid and Cherry Wine in their respective races at the 1 1/16 distance. Baffert's horse, Cupid, had the fastest time of all the horses in his last race. The handicappers like Madtap. He has a favorable post position at 7. I found this cheat-sheet. Enjoy. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/ ... Stakes_123 |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Your opinion is always valued in these horse racing threads, Walt. Anyway, I like Rube's horse and I think he's probably better than Discreteness but I figure Discreteness will be about 4 times better in price and Suddenbreakingnews isn't that much better. In fact, Discreteness has already beaten him. Jon Court is a crafty old guy but not a sexy jockey and that is only going to help the price. All the favorites in the race have expensive odds. Suddenbreakingnews should not be getting 3-1 when he finished his last race more than a second behind Cupid and Cherry Wine in their respective races at the 1 1/16 distance. Baffert's horse, Cupid, had the fastest time of all the horses in his last race. The handicappers like Madtap. He has a favorable post position at 7. I found this cheat-sheet. Enjoy. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/ ... Stakes_123 You can't really compare those Santa Anita times though. It's apples and oranges. You're better off looking at the Beyers figs or better yet, Timeform. I'm actually starting to lean toward Madtap. That last race was strong. This is a race where you have to set a line and take what the bettors give you. I still wouldn't like Suddenbreakingnews at 3-1 from way outside. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Your opinion is always valued in these horse racing threads, Walt. Anyway, I like Rube's horse and I think he's probably better than Discreteness but I figure Discreteness will be about 4 times better in price and Suddenbreakingnews isn't that much better. In fact, Discreteness has already beaten him. Jon Court is a crafty old guy but not a sexy jockey and that is only going to help the price. All the favorites in the race have expensive odds. Suddenbreakingnews should not be getting 3-1 when he finished his last race more than a second behind Cupid and Cherry Wine in their respective races at the 1 1/16 distance. Baffert's horse, Cupid, had the fastest time of all the horses in his last race. The handicappers like Madtap. He has a favorable post position at 7. I found this cheat-sheet. Enjoy. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/ ... Stakes_123 You can't really compare those Santa Anita times though. It's apples and oranges. You're better off looking at the Beyers figs or better yet, Timeform. I'm actually starting to lean toward Madtap. That last race was strong. This is a race where you have to set a line and take what the bettors give you. I still wouldn't like Suddenbreakingnews at 3-1 from way outside. I'm not sure now whether Suddenbreakingnews can run down this field from the far post, like he did coming on the outside in the Southwest. I think the pace will be quick, probably with American Dubai or Discreteness leading the way until the far turn. That said, I think I like Madtap, American Dubai and Discreteness to win. I'll throw Suddenbreakingnews into my trifecta and superfecta plays. My long-shot is Spikes Shirl. The jockey says the horse loves the Oaklawn track and is just gliding. Good post position. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Everyone seems to be on Madtap. I'm a little leery of him being wheeled back after racing just 14 days ago. And who did he beat that day? I just think horse racing fans (not JORR/WWN) fall in love with the nearly white-looking grays because they stand out visually (see that money burner horse on the NYC circuit named Juba). I'm guilty of it myself because I was pulling for Mr. Jordan to make it to the Derby last year. All that being said, this is the year of the grays, so I'll put Madtap on the ticket. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
spmack wrote: Everyone seems to be on Madtap. I'm a little leery of him being wheeled back after racing just 14 days ago. And who did he beat that day? I just think horse racing fans (not JORR/WWN) fall in love with the nearly white-looking grays because they stand out visually (see that money burner horse on the NYC circuit named Juba). I'm guilty of it myself because I was pulling for Mr. Jordan to make it to the Derby last year. All that being said, this is the year of the grays, so I'll put Madtap on the ticket. He posted a 105 speed figure, among the highest in the field. Also said to be a large, strong looking-horse. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
spmack wrote: Everyone seems to be on Madtap. I'm a little leery of him being wheeled back after racing just 14 days ago. And who did he beat that day? I just think horse racing fans (not JORR/WWN) fall in love with the nearly white-looking grays because they stand out visually (see that money burner horse on the NYC circuit named Juba). I'm guilty of it myself because I was pulling for Mr. Jordan to make it to the Derby last year. All that being said, this is the year of the grays, so I'll put Madtap on the ticket. I didn't even know he was a gray. It looks to me like he found himself on the dirt. He's got a first and a third from two tries at a buck sixteenth so he fits at the distance. And last his race on paper is better than Cupid's and Cupid figures to be a shorter price. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
American Dubai's speed figures have gone up in every race. I like him on or off the pace with more speed in this race. The horse has hit the board in his last three races. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
It's interesting that spmack brought up the color of horses. When I has buying a lot of harness horses, I preferred them to have a standard look, which for a standardbred is bay with few markings. Although just about every American racehorse, thoroughbred or standardbred, traces its roots back to Imported Messenger, the specific breeding has created different looks to the two breeds. For example, arguably the two greatest thoroughbred runners of all time were chestnut. In harness racing there is a huge bias against chestnuts. I mean, if you have a horse with elite commercial breeding and impeccable conformation and you expect him to bring $300,000 at auction as a bay with no white feet, if the same exact horse were a chestnut he would likely bring less than half that amount. |
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| Author: | badrogue17 [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
I know jack shit about horse racing but I could read you guys talking about it all day 
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
The track is favoring horses from off the pass....so Rubes horse should do well.JOR on colors of horse for some reason greys are better on the turf.My old book maker Jack Rowe always said on a sunny day bet a grey....he also said the less you bet the more you lose when you win! Good Luck |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Had Cupid in my Exacta and Trifecta boxes, but not Whitmore. Damn naggit. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Cupid looked visually impressive switching leads and running Whitmore off of his flank to win that race. The second quarter helped quite a bit. Whitmore - nice run at him - he flattened out a bit when he caught the horse. Ran somewhat green. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
Hawkeye Vince wrote: Cupid looked visually impressive switching leads and running Whitmore off of his flank to win that race. The second quarter helped quite a bit. Whitmore - nice run at him - he flattened out a bit when he caught the horse. Ran somewhat green. Yeah, Cupid looked like he could have gone around again. Some disappointing performances in that race. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3/19 Rebel Stakes - Oaklawn |
The 2nd quarter might have been the big one to impact the race. 24 is big in a race like that. |
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