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| 4/2 Florida Derby https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=99486 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 4/2 Florida Derby |
Seems like it will be the best prep-race so far with some standout entrants. I like all the chalks. Handicapping this race should be easier. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
It looks like a two horse race. I believe Mohaymen is the better horse, but a lot more is on the line here for Nyquist with the bonus he can win. Also, the conventional wisdom is that Nyquist isn't going to get a buck and a quarter. This race my be the actual objective for this horse. Mohaymen is clearly pointing to a bigger Derby. Mohaymen doesn't have to worry about Derby points. McLaughlin can use this race to set him up for the first Saturday in May. I suspect Nyquist is balls to the wall to win this race, while that may not be the case with Mohaymen. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
PPs are out but really this will be the easiest exacta in a while. Just a matter of who will win between the two. I like the fact that Nyquist has the extra incentive. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Thu Mar 31, 2016 7:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: It looks like a two horse race. What about Danzig Candy? Horse looked really good in the San Felipe. I like him. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Mar 31, 2016 7:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: It looks like a two horse race. What about Danzig Candy? Horse looked really good in the San Felipe. I like him. He's going in the Santa Anita Derby next week. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
what about the Spiral |
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| Author: | Rod [ Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: what about the Spiral That's a good betting race. Who do you like? |
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| Author: | spmack [ Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
I like Kasseopia in the Spiral. Interesting that Graham Motion is bringing in Alan Garcia from Woodbine, who rode him last October in the Grey stakes. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Thu Mar 31, 2016 7:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Jensen speed on the lead and the jock |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
How are you betting this race, JORR, with the two favorites getting even odds? |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Dignified Rube wrote: How are you betting this race, JORR, with the two favorites getting even odds? Like I said, I think Mohaymen is the better horse, but he's a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I think most knowledgeable people don't believe Nyquist will get the mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. I'm not sure Doug O'Neill believes that, but he's a pretty sharp guy. He's looking at a $1 million bonus for winning this race. It's obviously not the Kentucky Derby, but it's doable, especially if the objective for Mohaymen isn't to really win this race. Who knows what happens a month from now in a 20 horse field. I think Nyquist is going to be doing everything he can to win tomorrow. With Mohaymen I'm not sure that's the case. If these two get hooked up and banging on each other it could compromise their chances in Louisville. Since I think Mohaymen has the better chance for the big one, I think he's the one more likely to be backing off here. I'm going all in on Nyquist. I may even try to get lucky with an exacta that doesn't have Mohaymen in it. That's a longshot play though. The Spiral is the race I really like. I think that one will come down to Kasseopia and Surgical Strike. I think Surgical Strike will probably be the better betting value at post time but I'll have to see how it shakes out. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: How are you betting this race, JORR, with the two favorites getting even odds? Like I said, I think Mohaymen is the better horse, but he's a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I think most knowledgeable people don't believe Nyquist will get the mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. I'm not sure Doug O'Neill believes that, but he's a pretty sharp guy. He's looking at a $1 million bonus for winning this race. It's obviously not the Kentucky Derby, but it's doable, especially if the objective for Mohaymen isn't to really win this race. Who knows what happens a month from now in a 20 horse field. I think Nyquist is going to be doing everything he can to win tomorrow. With Mohaymen I'm not sure that's the case. If these two get hooked up and banging on each other it could compromise their chances in Louisville. Since I think Mohaymen has the better chance for the big one, I think he's the one more likely to be backing off here. I'm going all in on Nyquist. I may even try to get lucky with an exacta that doesn't have Mohaymen in it. That's a longshot play though. The Spiral is the race I really like. I think that one will come down to Kasseopia and Surgical Strike. I think Surgical Strike will probably be the better betting value at post time but I'll have to see how it shakes out. I was wondering what horses you would throw in with your tri and superfectas, JORR, if you're placing these bets? Would you bet any horses "show" in this race, considering they're getting 15-1 to 30-1 odds to win? Seems like it would be a good payoff, maybe 5-1? |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: How are you betting this race, JORR, with the two favorites getting even odds? Like I said, I think Mohaymen is the better horse, but he's a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I think most knowledgeable people don't believe Nyquist will get the mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. I'm not sure Doug O'Neill believes that, but he's a pretty sharp guy. He's looking at a $1 million bonus for winning this race. It's obviously not the Kentucky Derby, but it's doable, especially if the objective for Mohaymen isn't to really win this race. Who knows what happens a month from now in a 20 horse field. I think Nyquist is going to be doing everything he can to win tomorrow. With Mohaymen I'm not sure that's the case. If these two get hooked up and banging on each other it could compromise their chances in Louisville. Since I think Mohaymen has the better chance for the big one, I think he's the one more likely to be backing off here. I'm going all in on Nyquist. I may even try to get lucky with an exacta that doesn't have Mohaymen in it. That's a longshot play though. The Spiral is the race I really like. I think that one will come down to Kasseopia and Surgical Strike. I think Surgical Strike will probably be the better betting value at post time but I'll have to see how it shakes out. I was wondering what horses you would throw in with your tri and superfectas, JORR, if you're placing these bets? Would you bet any horses "show" in this race, considering they're getting 15-1 to 30-1 odds to win? Would seem like a good payoff, maybe 5-1 to hit one? Well, regardless of any other horse's odds in the win pool, If Nyquist and Mohaymen run 1-2 the show prices figure to be relatively low. Of course, you can do the math at post time if you have access to the show pool betting amounts. The other horses that seem to have the best chance to hit the board are Fellowship and Takeittotheedge. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: How are you betting this race, JORR, with the two favorites getting even odds? Like I said, I think Mohaymen is the better horse, but he's a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I think most knowledgeable people don't believe Nyquist will get the mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. I'm not sure Doug O'Neill believes that, but he's a pretty sharp guy. He's looking at a $1 million bonus for winning this race. It's obviously not the Kentucky Derby, but it's doable, especially if the objective for Mohaymen isn't to really win this race. Who knows what happens a month from now in a 20 horse field. I think Nyquist is going to be doing everything he can to win tomorrow. With Mohaymen I'm not sure that's the case. If these two get hooked up and banging on each other it could compromise their chances in Louisville. Since I think Mohaymen has the better chance for the big one, I think he's the one more likely to be backing off here. I'm going all in on Nyquist. I may even try to get lucky with an exacta that doesn't have Mohaymen in it. That's a longshot play though. The Spiral is the race I really like. I think that one will come down to Kasseopia and Surgical Strike. I think Surgical Strike will probably be the better betting value at post time but I'll have to see how it shakes out. I was wondering what horses you would throw in with your tri and superfectas, JORR, if you're placing these bets? Would you bet any horses "show" in this race, considering they're getting 15-1 to 30-1 odds to win? Would seem like a good payoff, maybe 5-1 to hit one? Well, regardless of any other horse's odds in the win pool, If Nyquist and Mohaymen run 1-2 the show prices figure to be relatively low. Of course, you can do the math at post time if you have access to the show pool betting amounts. The other horses that seem to have the best chance to hit the board are Fellowship and Takeittotheedge. This is one time you could easily get the superfecta right. If Fellowship and Takeittotheedge come in 3, 4, there's just four combinations, assuming Mohaymen or Nyquist win, coming in 1,2. I wonder what the combined superfecta odds could be, still better than 30-1 or 50-1? Could be a really nice payout for very little uncertainty as far as the picks. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 02, 2016 12:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
My friend has a horse going at the Big A in the 5th Metaurus last time exploded at 38 - 1 maybe out ckassed.....wth |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Fuck! I loaded up on Nyquist, but I couldn't catch the exacta. I've got no Majestos. I had the right idea though. And 6/5 in this spot wasn't bad. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Fuck! I loaded up on Nyquist, but I couldn't catch the exacta. I've got no Majestos. I had the right idea though. And 6/5 in this spot wasn't bad. HAD A 4/2 exacta Spmack the only cinch goes around the horses belly.In the Spiral had a 3/5 box that fuckin Ramsey |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Maybe this son of a bitch can get the mile and a quarter. He toyed with that rat on the front end and then when Mohaymen came he just put on the afterburners. He was doing it easy. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Nyquist looks like the real deal. That horse was never whipped coming home - he's a beast. Mohaymen had a horrible trip but still no real excuse for coming up empty. |
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| Author: | Keyser Soze [ Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Our bookie gave my brother takeittotheedge. So that's what the asshole does with all of our money. He loses it at the track! |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sun Apr 03, 2016 9:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/2 Florida Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Fuck! I loaded up on Nyquist, but I couldn't catch the exacta. I've got no Majestos. I had the right idea though. And 6/5 in this spot wasn't bad. I had Nyquist and Majestos. Big disappointment by Moyhamen to screw me. |
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