I'm trying to bet against Cupid, but look at the way this MF'er is strutting like he know's he's about to hit a home run.
https://twitter.com/DRFRampellini/statu ... 3681841153
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| 4/16 Arkansas Derby https://mail.chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=99752 |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
I'm trying to bet against Cupid, but look at the way this MF'er is strutting like he know's he's about to hit a home run. https://twitter.com/DRFRampellini/statu ... 3681841153
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
This one should be interesting with better odds. Looks like it will be between Cupid, Whitmore, Dazzling Gem and Suddenbreakingnews. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
I'm giving Whitmore one final shot here....he gets a better PP (8), Irad Ortiz Jr will get him closer to the pace, and then he'll pounce on Cupid in the home stretch. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
spmack wrote: I'm trying to bet against Cupid, but look at the way this MF'er is strutting like he know's he's about to hit a home run.[/img] When I cashed out my exacta ticket a couple days ago, the elderly gentleman at the window offered the tip to take whoever Baffert's horse is in the Arkansas Derby. Hopefully it is that easy to pick the winner with Cupid. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
spmack wrote: I'm giving Whitmore one final shot here....he gets a better PP (8), Irad Ortiz Jr will get him closer to the pace, and then he'll pounce on Cupid in the home stretch. I think Creator was very strong in the Rebel. Got caught in traffic and made up huge ground to finish 3rd behind Whitmore and Cupid. If they ran that race once more, I think Creator beats Whitmore if he gets a clean trip. Gets a decent draw for the Arkansas with the #3 post. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNNYqz27tio |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Dignified Rube wrote: spmack wrote: I'm trying to bet against Cupid, but look at the way this MF'er is strutting like he know's he's about to hit a home run.[/img] When I cashed out my exacta ticket a couple days ago, the elderly gentleman at the window offered the tip to take whoever Baffert's horse is in the Arkansas Derby. Hopefully it is that easy to pick the winner with Cupid. 1...don't listen to old fucks B ....American Pioneer 3 ...don't listen to old fucks |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: spmack wrote: I'm trying to bet against Cupid, but look at the way this MF'er is strutting like he know's he's about to hit a home run.[/img] When I cashed out my exacta ticket a couple days ago, the elderly gentleman at the window offered the tip to take whoever Baffert's horse is in the Arkansas Derby. Hopefully it is that easy to pick the winner with Cupid. 1...don't listen to old fucks B ....American Pioneer 3 ...don't listen to old fucks I didn't say I would take the advice. He's a 60 year old working the afternoon shift at the window. If he were good, he would be on the other side of the window. But I can understand the love for Baffert and his horses. He hasn't done much wrong lately. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
spmack wrote: I'm giving Whitmore one final shot here....he gets a better PP (8), Irad Ortiz Jr will get him closer to the pace, and then he'll pounce on Cupid in the home stretch. Serious question: In the Rebel, Cupid was losing it at the end to Whitmore, before the jockey veered the horse to the right to cut off Whitmore from advancing. Cupid then holds Whitmore off long enough to win. To me, that looked like an illegal move. Or is blocking like that acceptable in racing? I'm not familiar with the rules, but I would think that Whitmore had the right-away to continue on his course going straight without being obstructed. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Dignified Rube wrote: spmack wrote: I'm giving Whitmore one final shot here....he gets a better PP (8), Irad Ortiz Jr will get him closer to the pace, and then he'll pounce on Cupid in the home stretch. I think Creator was very strong in the Rebel. Got caught in traffic and made up huge ground to finish 3rd behind Whitmore and Cupid. If they ran that race once more, I think Creator beats Whitmore if he gets a clean trip. Gets a decent draw for the Arkansas with the #3 post. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNNYqz27tio Creator had it going on late in that race. I think there will be enough pace here that he gets a good set up. I know spmack is familiar with my guys Thomas and Denk. When you see a horse like Brody's Cause, he has what they would call a powerful Group Herd Dynamic. He maintains his space and bullies horses around him. I think Whitmore is what they might call "sticky in his transitions", meaning when he is moving past another horse he hangs up alongside him for a split-second rather than just brushing past. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Dignified Rube wrote: spmack wrote: I'm giving Whitmore one final shot here....he gets a better PP (8), Irad Ortiz Jr will get him closer to the pace, and then he'll pounce on Cupid in the home stretch. Serious question: In the Rebel, Cupid was losing it at the end to Whitmore, before the jockey veered the horse to the right to cut off Whitmore from advancing. Cupid then holds Whitmore off long enough to win. To me, that looked like an illegal move. Or is blocking like that acceptable in racing? I'm not familiar with the rules, but I would think that Whitmore had the right-away to continue on his course going straight without being obstructed. I didn't think Cupid came out into Whitmore's path at all. Tired horses tend to bear out. It's got to be a lot more egregious than that for it to be a foul. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Thu Apr 14, 2016 7:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Program please, Spmack? If I could take the field against Cupid, I would. Don't think he finishes better than 3rd in this race. I'm going with Creator to win, probably keying it with Whitmore, Gettysburg and Cupid. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/A ... erby16.pdf I'm telling you guys, Whitmore does it...and he's probably gonna get 4-1 or better. Build up your bread for first Saturday in May with this one fellas. |
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| Author: | Hawkeye Vince [ Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
So many deep closers not much speed. Couple longer shots that look interesting: Pletcher's Gettysburg: Can stalk, drops 5 lbs from last start and gets John Velasquez Catalano's American Pioneer: did just beat maidens, but stalked the pace and won easily. Time was only a couple of fifths off the Rebel time. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Hawkeye Vince wrote: So many deep closers not much speed. Very true. By the looks of it, your speed in this race is Cupid, Dazzling Gem and Gray Sky. Lukas has a habit of coming out of no where to win, like he did with Mr. Z. last year in the Ohio Derby. There must be a good reason he has Gray Sky in this race after a mediocre showing in the Rebel, where he faded after the final turn. He must know something we don't. I have a hard time believing that Creator's LP in the Rebel was only 96, while Cupid's was 99, even though Creator was closing on both Whitmore and Cupid. That can't be right. This might force me to rethink my strategy. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Who is the best stalker in the race? |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Changed my mind. Took a second look at Whitmore, and I put him in my exotics along with Gettysburg, Cupid and Unbridled Outlaw. Suddenbreakingnews has simply not been consistent enough and has not shown enough speed to make me confident in him. Gettysburg and Velazquez get it done today. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Dignified Rube wrote: spmack wrote: I'm giving Whitmore one final shot here....he gets a better PP (8), Irad Ortiz Jr will get him closer to the pace, and then he'll pounce on Cupid in the home stretch. I think Creator was very strong in the Rebel. Got caught in traffic and made up huge ground to finish 3rd behind Whitmore and Cupid. If they ran that race once more, I think Creator beats Whitmore if he gets a clean trip. Gets a decent draw for the Arkansas with the #3 post. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNNYqz27tio Creator had it going on late in that race. I think there will be enough pace here that he gets a good set up. I know spmack is familiar with my guys Thomas and Denk. When you see a horse like Brody's Cause, he has what they would call a powerful Group Herd Dynamic. He maintains his space and bullies horses around him. I think Whitmore is what they might call "sticky in his transitions", meaning when he is moving past another horse he hangs up alongside him for a split-second rather than just brushing past. hope you had him |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Nice price! I think he's better than Gun Runner but I don't really like a horse with that deep closing style. You could see he was sitting on a big race here though and he got the strong pace he needed to run at. If Whitmore didn't win there I can't see him winning at this level. |
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| Author: | spmack [ Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Good call! That Cupid is a fraud. Another crazy Tapit. Exaggerator will win the Derby. |
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
spmack wrote: Good call! That Cupid is a fraud. Another crazy Tapit. Exaggerator will win the Derby. It made me laugh when that dope said, "Creator will not get the job done!" It was like Hawk Harrelson calling the race. Those were some stiff fractions with Cupid chasing Gettysburg all the way. Cupid isn't a bum. I don't think he has a chance in the Derby though. It's probably questionable that he starts. But maybe Baffert wants him in there to lean on Nyquist. I know he's said Collected isn't going, but you have to wonder if yesterday changes that. I'm gonna say the Derby winner is in this group: Mor Spirit Exxagerator Brody's Cause My Man Sam Mohaymen |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Bunch of nags these 3 year olds are 
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| Author: | Rod [ Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Bunch of nags these 3 year olds are Yeah, they seem to be extraordinarily slow. But that's going to make the Derby a good betting race. And maybe some crazy thing will jump up with the race of his life and win it. But you know, maybe all of us who are dismissing Nyquist are just dummies. It's hard to fault a horse that's never lost. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sun Apr 17, 2016 8:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Why don't I stick with my first instincts with Creator?? Ugghh. I put him in my tri-fecta, but I had Gettysburg keyed first. I was correct for the first mile at least. The jockey screwed up with Gettysburg, having him on the pace. Should have had him stalking, and he would have been there at the wire. Sometimes I over-think my selections. I was going for Suddenbreakingnews, too, but the inconsistency of his last trip spooked me. I figured it was just a bad trip and he would rebound, so I took Whitmore over him. I did have Creator and Whitmore, though not on the same ticket. This was not an easy race to handicap at all, especially with Cupid being a fraud, which I kind of figured. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 4/16 Arkansas Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: spmack wrote: Good call! That Cupid is a fraud. Another crazy Tapit. Exaggerator will win the Derby. It made me laugh when that dope said, "Creator will not get the job done!" It was like Hawk Harrelson calling the race. Those were some stiff fractions with Cupid chasing Gettysburg all the way. Cupid isn't a bum. I don't think he has a chance in the Derby though. It's probably questionable that he starts. But maybe Baffert wants him in there to lean on Nyquist. I know he's said Collected isn't going, but you have to wonder if yesterday changes that. I'm gonna say the Derby winner is in this group: Mor Spirit Exxagerator Brody's Cause My Man Sam Mohaymen Yes. Hint: The one whose time in the 1 1/8 mi. was only slightly slower than Nyquist's at the same distance but in worse track conditions. |
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