It is currently Fri Nov 15, 2024 3:19 pm

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 12 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Murph's game back theory
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2009 1:17 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:14 pm
Posts: 1158
pizza_Place: Suparosa on Central between Irving and Montrose. Forget about the rest!!!
Is so wrong, why doesn't anyone call him out on this??

Do people call and they just don't get on?

He states this theory daily now with the Cubs where they are. Someone has got to call him out on this sooner or later.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2009 1:19 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:03 pm
Posts: 43552
I know it is hard to concentrate with "Summer of 69" blasting in the background, but can you please explain what the Game Back Theory is to us non-Murph listeners?

_________________
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
I am not a legal expert, how many times do I have to say it?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2009 4:12 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 7:43 pm
Posts: 1678
The theory is that, in the baseball standings, the correct way to calculate games back should be to sum up the number of games back behind ALL teams ahead of you in the standings.

I don't think it holds water. Now, it is true that it's better to be, say, 7 games out behind one team, than 7 games out with three teams ahead of you. But, simply adding up the games back from every position ahead of you is overkill.

It comes down to this. Among all the teams in your division, the team with the most wins will win x number of games. Your goal then, is to win x+1 number of games. The other teams don't matter.

If there are three teams ahead of you, the likelihood of x being a higher number is therefore stronger. But there's still only one team you have to really "catch". You just don't know which one it is.

Also you can't overlook that fact that the teams ahead of you will be playing each other. Which means, assuming your teams starts winning games, you are guaranteed to pick up games against some of them.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:40 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:19 pm
Posts: 2114
Location: North 'Burbs
When the team in queston (the Cubs, to use Murph's example), wins ONE game, that ONE WIN automatically gains them a half-game on ALL THE TEAMS ahead of them (pending the results of those teams' games that day, of course). Therefore, I think Murph's formula needs to be tweaked so that the GB the teams other than the first-place team should only count half. In other words, if the Cubs are in fourth, 3 games out of first, 2 out of second, and 1 out of third, Murph would say they're 3 + 2 + 1 = 6 games out. I would say 3 + 1/2 x (2 + 1) = 4.5 games out is a better indicator.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:15 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:14 pm
Posts: 1158
pizza_Place: Suparosa on Central between Irving and Montrose. Forget about the rest!!!
He just proved how wrong his own theory is.

According to him Cubs were 8 back Sunday Morning. Now on Monday Morning they are 5 back. You can only gain 1 game a day, not 3, therefore his theory is garbage and he just proved it.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 6:03 pm
Posts: 1714
Location: Woo! (or Portland)
pizza_Place: Nicola's
June 12

_________________
I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires. -Susan B. Anthony


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:14 pm 
Offline
1000 CLUB
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2004 9:58 am
Posts: 4456
Location: @ ROH Show Near Me.
pizza_Place: Freezer.
Bud Dude wrote:
He just proved how wrong his own theory is.

According to him Cubs were 8 back Sunday Morning. Now on Monday Morning they are 5 back. You can only gain 1 game a day, not 3, therefore his theory is garbage and he just proved it.


Get on phone & explain to him. Even idiot ideas are there to help seed the show; to make the conversation interesting.

_________________
Middle Aged Crazy, like Uncle Terry


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:19 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 03, 2009 9:33 pm
Posts: 16484
Location: Chicago, Illinois
pizza_Place: Salernos, Oak Park
Bud Dude wrote:
He just proved how wrong his own theory is.

According to him Cubs were 8 back Sunday Morning. Now on Monday Morning they are 5 back. You can only gain 1 game a day, not 3, therefore his theory is garbage and he just proved it.


Isn't this a 3 game swing in one day? What am I missing here?

_________________
CSFMB 2014 Nascar Pick 'em Champion

We don’t have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven’t taxed enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much. — Ronald Reagan


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 11:46 am
Posts: 26636
Location: NW SUBURBS OF CHICAGO
pizza_Place: any from anywhere
24_Guy wrote:
The theory is that, in the baseball standings, the correct way to calculate games back should be to sum up the number of games back behind ALL teams ahead of you in the standings.

I don't think it holds water. Now, it is true that it's better to be, say, 7 games out behind one team, than 7 games out with three teams ahead of you. But, simply adding up the games back from every position ahead of you is overkill.

It comes down to this. Among all the teams in your division, the team with the most wins will win x number of games. Your goal then, is to win x+1 number of games. The other teams don't matter.

If there are three teams ahead of you, the likelihood of x being a higher number is therefore stronger. But there's still only one team you have to really "catch". You just don't know which one it is.

Also you can't overlook that fact that the teams ahead of you will be playing each other. Which means, assuming your teams starts winning games, you are guaranteed to pick up games against some of them.


I agree with you. I never bought into that twisted bullshit either. 5 GB is 5GB back.

_________________
favrefan said:"Chris Coghlan isn't gonna pay your rent, Jimmy."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:15 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:14 pm
Posts: 1158
pizza_Place: Suparosa on Central between Irving and Montrose. Forget about the rest!!!
He's going to run this theory of his into the ground isn't he?

Once again he is starting his show off telling us the Cubs were 11 total games behind at the end of May. If they were 11 games behind at the end of May they would not be 2.5 back this morning, even with their recent decent play.

Have a nice long vacation Murph.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:16 pm
Posts: 81625
Douchebag wrote:
I know it is hard to concentrate with "Summer of 69" blasting in the background, but can you please explain what the Game Back Theory is to us non-Murph listeners?

That ball CRUSHED


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:15 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2006 9:29 am
Posts: 65733
Location: Darkside Estates
pizza_Place: A cat got an online degree.
Does this guy honestly wonder why he's been bumped off the air? :scratch:

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014
bigfan wrote:
Many that is true, but an incomplete statement.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 12 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group