I put $200 on The Imitation Game.
However, Birdman's the best film, cinematography/acting/music/sound/theme(s)/etc. Dialogue isn't the best but then Birdman does its best work evoking themes/thoughts/emotions with visuals, non-verbal aspects of acting and sound. The dialogue's almost superfluous--the scenes in the bar with the cranky critic chick being exceptions. Birdman should win for best musical score but it's disqualified on a technicality.
Watching Birdman with its single shot moving camera kept reminding me of something. Especially how the camera would move down empty hallways between scenes and come up on the next scene like a person walking from scene to scene.
Keaton goes into the liquor store to buy whiskey and then comes out and dude's doing the macbeth soliloquy and I'm like, doh!:
sleepnomorenyc.com
saw this a couple years back in NYC (it's across from Scores). An interactive macbeth where you wander through several floors of a warehouse and actors stage scenes in seemingly random places. The penultimate scene/money shot in Birdman has a lot in common with the final scene in Sleep No More--as does the rest of the film.
So why bet on The Imitation Game?
Lot of films nominated and there isn't a clear #1. Not even a clear 1 and 2. Sure, Birdman and Boyhood seem like favorites, but some are pushing for American Sniper as a darkhorse. Or Whiplash. Or Theory of Everything. Or the Grand Budapest Hotel. etc
Point is that for a film to get the necessary votes it needs to win it'll have to log-roll together various voting blocks.
The Imitation Game's got gay. and it has relevance for /connection to the holocaust. Turing's work ends the holocaust more quickly than it might otherwise have ended.
And it's another hurrah for "the Greatest Generation".
The Imitation Game's a perfectly done film in the Merchant and Ivory mo(u)ld that made a decent amount of money; is eminently watchable/re-watchable; and no one's going to look back 20 years from now and go "what were they thinking giving that the Oscar?"
Birdman's the cinematic equivalent of a five grams wet psilocybin trip. A difficult, challenging film that's all about the experience and the journey (Don't Stop Believin'). Not the kind of film likely to take home Oscar--even tho it should.
re: Boyhood. Linklater maybe gets Best Director? Seems more appropriate for him given his body of work and the nature of a Linklater production.

Keaton should win best actor. But maybe preferring life in Montana hunting and fishing to Hollywood nights
staring into the mirror will cost Keaton. ir
http://www.esquire.com/entertainment/mo ... view-0214/