Baseball Prospectus PECOTA predictions are out early this year and they have the Cubs finishing in 5th place in the NL Central.

71-91

Teams projected to behind the Cubs

Astros 66-96
Marlins 69-93
Twins equal th eCubs at 71-91

The White Sox are at 75-87 FYI

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PECOTA does a great job of being within 5 games. I think it is almost a 90% clip

No, you cant bet that In vegas

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Didn't PECOTA have the powerhouse 2005 Sox who won 99 in the regular season and then jackrolled through the postseason 11-1 as an 80-82 team?

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I thought they had the '05 Sox at something more like 72 or 75 wins.

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I believe they end up being 5-8 games off in most years, which isn't really that good considering that is a 10-16 game swing.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Well then. Scrap the whole thing. They should be out of business.

How many years do the Sox fans get to bring this up? I would say 10 years after the championship is the limit.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

They're radically wrong on the Sox almost every year.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Bleacher Reports Top 50 prospects



19 Kris Bryant


Scouting Report

Understands how to utilize massive 6’5”, 215-pound frame; wide stance and base; effortless, quiet swing for slugger; toe-tap load with balanced weight transfer through the baseball; will be forced to improve pitch selection and recognition in the majors; swing has some length and makes him vulnerable to plus velocity on the hands; present plus-plus raw power to all fields.

Chance to boast elite power at maturity with improvements; loose hands and wrists; outstanding bat speed; power should always be there, even if average isn’t; showcases impressive barrel control through the strike zone; excellent hip rotation creates extension through the baseball, but he can get too rotational at times; favorable point of contact off a firm front side; generates backspin carry to all fields.

Moves well for a player of his size; present athleticism; not a base-clogger; should be able to stay at hot corner as a professional, at least initially; able to get low enough to make the plays; actions can be too deliberate and stiff; glove and hands profile as a corner infielder; average range.

Could shift to the outfield in deference to Javier Baez and Starlin Castro; actions, athleticism and long strides could make him an average defender at the position; plus arm strength is strongest defensive asset; clean arm stroke and release; good carry on throws; above-average accuracy, more than enough for third base and/or right field.

Projection: Potential All-Star

Risk: Medium

2014 Outlook: Bryant capped his impressive professional debut with a monster performance at High-A Daytona, where he posted a 1.106 OPS with 11 extra-base hits (five home runs) in 16 games. And just for good measure, the 22-year-old captured MVP honors in 2013 Arizona Fall League with a 1.184 OPS and six home runs in 20 games. While there’s uncertainty about his ultimate defensive home, Bryant’s bat could have him in the major leagues (in some capacity) by the end of the 2014 season.


12 Albert Almora


Scouting Report

Premium athlete who showcases all five tools, a mature work ethic and advanced baseball skills; 6’2”, 180-pound frame leaves room for projection; above-average bat speed results in consistent, hard contact to all fields.

Quiet and efficient swing with little wasted movement; power will develop as he matures; should be above-average by the time he reaches the major leagues; Almora’s barrel control and ability to stay inside the ball are both impressive for his age; the right-handed hitter’s barrel control gives him a smooth, natural stroke to right-center field.

Slightly above-average runner; demonstrates excellent instincts in center field through his reads, jumps and positioning; average arm strength that’s best-suited for center field; above-average defensive outfielder with natural ability and an all-out style; he also has high baseball IQ with outstanding makeup.

Projection: First-division regular; potential All-Star

Risk: Medium

2014 Outlook: Almora’s full-season debut was book-ended by a pair of injuries, but it didn’t stop him from emerging as one of the top hitters in the low minors. The 19-year-old is an incredibly well-rounded player for his age with sneaky All-Star potential, and he could start moving quickly next season after opening the year at High-A Daytona.



9 Javier Baez

Scouting Report

Right-handed hitter with potential for above-average-to-plus hit tool; raw power is an easy plus attribute; elite, plus-plus bat speed yields loud contact to all fields; 20-20 potential; will jump on velocity with extremely strong wrists and top hand.

Max-effort swing every time; lacks a feel for the strike zone and will chase too many pitches; needs to show some restraint; will need to improve pitch recognition; chases too many breaking balls; can be beaten by quality sequencing; needs to work more counts; aggressive base stealer; secondary skills steadily improving.

The 6’0”, 190-pounder is a shortstop at the moment; addition of too much strength may prompt a move to third base; impressive athlete with smooth, natural defensive actions; speed may lose a grade as he develops physically; should always be at least solid defensively; high error totals should come down with more experience; plus arm ideal for left side of the infield; high-intensity player who still needs to slow game down defensively.

Projection: Regular All-Star

Risk: Medium

2014 Outlook: While he may always be a little rough around the edges, Baez has the upside of the game’s most productive hitter during his prime, with the potential to put up 30-plus home runs annually. However, with fellow prospects Kris Bryant and Arismendy Alcantara also competing for spots on the Cubs’ future infield, it’ll be interesting to see how the team fits Baez’s bat in the lineup later this year.

What is a base-clogger?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-sox-and-beating-projections/

Seems uncommonly good health is to blame

Slow power hitter, I would guess

Fuck bleacher report. They can take their slideshows and shove them up their assholes.

Got it. But after awhile doesn't that need to be accepted and accounted for? We're talking a ten year run here. Not a small sample.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I know what it's supposed to mean, but aren't we sophisticated enough to understand there is no such thing as "clogging" bases? Guys on base are not a negative. Even if they're fat and slow.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

We are


Robin Ventura is not

The problem isn't really that PECOTA is wrong a lot about the White Sox. It's that they are wrong to the point of being virtually useless.

Take every first place team from last year, predict them to win 90 games.
Take every last place team from last year, predict them to win 72 games.
Take everyone else, predict them to win 81 games.

You'll likely be right there with PECOTA or any of the other similar ones.

That's why it's hard to even find statistical comparisons of how accurate they've been year over year even though they claim to be "deadly accurate".

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

That's not really what they do though.

As I said, its just a little bit better than the average fan prediction.

It matters though.

It seems like I say this every year, but it's not worth anything if it isn't significantly better than a super simple model like that.

They run all these projections, make it sound all complicated, and then it can't beat a simple model like that. Imagine if I created a model that could predict if it will rain in San Diego with 80% accuracy. That sounds pretty good. The problem is that if you predict every day that it won't rain, you will have a model that is 89% accurate. To even have a model worth mentioning, it would have to far exceed that 89% accuracy mark. My guess is that if you did even some minor adjustments, you could get that 89% model even higher by taking advantage of the fact that rainfall is concentrated pretty heavily from December through March.

I'm not saying the model above I proposed is good. It isn't. It's intentionally dumb. A 6th grader could do the calculations.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The individual player projections are not worthless. You cant get that from a 6th grader. The team ones are without much value.

I think its fairly worthless myself.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Don't use our analysis as a predictive metric except when we are trying to make money from it as a predictive metric

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.