Pecota projections are out and hopefully they’re wrong as usual.

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I'll take the over.

Somebody give me odds.

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I was only half listening while working but Bernsie was going to all lengths to not shit on Pecota and disagree with 82.

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Elections have consequences.

Vegas W-L totals Trump Pecota every year.

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I got 83

I haven't seen this but am curious what Reason is given for the precipitous drop.

82 is low, but would 90 seem low? Would 92 seem low?

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I probably wouldn't have choked on my Cheerios at 90 or 92.

If Darvish is back to being pre Cubs Darvish, they fly over the total

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Pectoa is always conservative. I believe only one team in the NL is predicted to hit 90 (Dodgers)

Because last year's stats are heavily weighted in

Pecota doesn't particularly like relief pitchers as their performance tends to be erratic from year to year. Add in the typical performance of somebody coming off of injuries like Darvish, that Lester and Hamels are aging, and that Pecota doesnt' know that Tyler Chatwood won't pitch meaningful innings, and the simulation probably expects the pitching staff to implode and lose a lot of 6-5 ballgames.

What I really don't understand is the Reds and Pirates both at 81. No way the Pirates break 77.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

This is just fodder for mid winter programming. Not to really be taken seriously imo.

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There are only two examples of infinity: The universe and human stupidity and I'm not sure about the universe.

The Pirates won 82 last year, lost no one, and will have a full year of Chris Archer

I don't see how the Pirates are going to break 500 within the 75 games of divisional play. Even if they go 8-10 vs. the top three teams and 10-8 vs. the Reds, that's 34-38 and I think that's optimistic.

The Reds are going to actually be an acceptable baseball team this year until they start trading pending free agents in July and August.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

I wish they would have picked 83 instead of 82.

It would have worked out better for us wise acres.

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"This is Chicago, my friend. Anything can happen."

Vegas has

Cubs 88.5
Cards 88.5
Brew 84.5

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Buddy of mine just got back and wherever he played his action had Brewers up to 87.5.

This is where we need Nas to point out that last years bad stats were an aberration but good ones were a trend.

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“Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.”- JD Vance
“My god, what an !diot.”- JD Vance tweet on Trump
“I’m a ‘Never Trump’ guy”- JD Vance

82 is too low. Last season Pecota estimated the Cubs would win 89 and despite Darvish missing most of the season and Bryant missing a fair chunk as well, they won 95. That said, the division got better. Wins will be tougher to come by than they were a few seasons ago. But I would say 90-93 wins is about right.

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Go Cubs!!!!

The Cubs haven't improved much in the off-season, except for Darvish saying he's confident, hopefully Bryant healthy, crazy Joe under orders to agressively try to sweep series, not settle for 2/3 ,3/4. Will be interesting to see how much the off-season aggressive teams have improved.

THank you, Vegas.

I'll now put my Cubs win prediction at 88

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As of today, I've got the top three (Cubs, Milwaukee, St. Louis) with 266 wins total between them. So probably 90, 88, 88, maybe 91, 89, 86. No confidence as to the sequence, i think it'll depend on injuries and how inclement weather affects scheduling. I have both the Reds and Pirates at 77, as I think they will both trade at the deadline and fade back from .500

I think all three teams are fatally flawed in terms of beating a top AL team, but can hold their own with the other four likely NL playoff contenders - LA, Colorado, Atlanta, and Philly.

The rest of the free agent signings may change things. For example, if one of the NL Central teams gets Kimbrel or Keuchel.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal