Twitter abuzz with Cubs-A's trade talk: Shark &/or Hammel. A potential blockbuster with maybe top 3 A's prospects back to Cubs maybe including Barney and/or Valbuena too.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/Cubs, Athletics In Serious Talks On Hammel And/Or Samardzija
By Jeff Todd [July 4, 2014 at 8:02pm CDT]
The Cubs and Athletics are in serious discussions regarding a major swap that would deliver Chicago starters Jason Hammel “and/or” Jeff Samardzija to Oakland, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Top Oakland prospect Addison Russell has been discussed, according to the report.
Needless to say, a deal involving both Hammel and Samardzija would represent a stunning early turn in the market. The pair of Cubs hurlers has long been rumored to be among the best arms likely to change hands over the summer. But both were expected to have many suitors, some (but not all) of which would likely overlap.
Hammel is a sturdy option to bolster a rotation down the stretch. Signed to a one-year, $6MM contract entering the season, he owns a solid 2.98 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 through 102 2/3 frames. At this point, it seems reasonable to say that he is the most attractive, mid-level, pure rental arm available.
Samardzija, on the other hand, represents a possible mid or even long-term piece. He is earning a modest $5.35MM in his second (and second-to-last) season of arbitration eligibility. Though his excellent 2.83 ERA (8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9) through 108 frames will warrant a significant raise next year, he surely projects to deliver significant excess value over his contract potential. And a team acquiring Samardzija may well make a run at an extension.
Though Hammel is expected to bring back some value, there is little doubt that Russell would only be involved if Samardzija was also on his way to Oakland. The 20-year-old shortstop is far and away the A’s best-regarded prospect, with a wide consensus that he is one of the twenty best pre-MLB players in the game. ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider link) ranked him as the third-best overall prospect coming into the season, lauding his outstanding across-the-board tools, projectable power, elite hands and arm at short, and overall feel for the game.
Indeed, it is arguable that Russell would be too great a return even for Samardzija. On the other hand, it is difficult to see the A’s landing Samardzija (or any other starter at or above his level) without including Russell. The fall-off in the A’s system comes fairly quickly. Billy McKinney is the team’s consensus second-best prospect, but he (like much of the rest of the organization’s best talent) has yet to advance above High-A ball and does not rate amongst the game’s best-rated young players.
For the A’s, the addition of at least one starter makes a good deal of sense. While the club has cruised to a league-best .616 winning percentage, backed by a +129 run differential that is far and away the best in baseball, it is being chased by two clubs (the Angels and Mariners) that rank 2nd and 3rd in the game in run differential. Though the rotation has delivered a stellar 3.34 ERA, its peripherals (3.90 FIP, 3.84 xFIP) paint a somewhat different picture. More importantly, perhaps, are some details on the team’s current slate of arms. Consider its top three hurlers this year: staff ace Sonny Gray is up to 111 innings but has never thrown more than 182 1/3 in a season as a pro; Jesse Chavez (103 innings) is about to pass his career high in innings pitched; and Scott Kazmir has a well-documented injury history.
It would not be surprising, for that matter, to see Oakland pursue two rotation additions. Looking further down the line at the club’s present options, Tommy Milone has a relatively low ceiling and has outperformed his peripherals this year, Dan Straily‘s minor league numbers largely match the ones that got him demoted, Drew Pomeranz is injured, and Josh Lindblom has just six big league starts to his credit at age 27.
Of course, Oakland could also stand to upgrade its options at second base. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs notes on Twitter, that is another area where the Cubs could potentially add value in a hypothetical deal. Indeed, Luis Valbuena, Emilio Bonifacio, and Darwin Barney are all capable of manning the keystone. And it is not inconceivable that a deal could deliver a somewhat lesser prospect (or prospects) back to Oakland, in order to balance out the A’s sacrifice of future value.
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