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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:08 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Bernstein is Baseball stupid in many ways. The idea that striking out is no worse than any other out is the worst thought of all. When you have a runner reach base and the following hitter (less than 2 outs) makes an out but moves the runner up a base, now he in scoring position. 1st and 2nd less than 2 outs, and the batter bunts or hits a ground ball to the right side that moves both runners...good. Runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, a deep fly ball or ground ball in many cases may score the runner. A strikeout is a unproductive out and is not the equal of many outs that can actually contribute to scoring runs.

So, by Bernstein's logic, Adam Dunn's excessive strikeouts were no better or worse than grounding out or flying out. Absolutely ridiculous. He is wrong.

Guys - this is not a Cubs vs Sox thing so please don't take it that way. I like both teams but favor the Sox and I could not stand that $55 million mistake Adam Dunn turned out to be. IMO - a strikeout is the worse thing you can do at the plate - especially looking.

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:18 am 
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Yeah but Bernsie said so and will shout you down so it is therefore true.

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:21 am 
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pittmike wrote:
Yeah but Bernsie said so and will shout you down so it is therefore true.

True... how could I forget.

#DagoShaming.

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:34 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I have to wonder if those people (dan bernstein is a good example) who have reguritated the things they have read on the subject for years will now turn around and start saying that taking pitches and drawing walks is suddenly not as important as putting balls in play and that strikeouts are indeed worse outs than those occurring on batted balls.
.

Id have no issue doing that. Things change. The way games are played changes.


To some degree, yes. But most people act like these things are absolute. There is a stridency when bernstein says Ned Yost is an idiot. That viewpoint is based on what bernstein believes to be true- wasting outs is bad, walks are good, taking pitches is good, defense on the corners is insignificant, striking out is no worse than any other out, etc.

You know how much I hate sacrifice bunts. I found them really moronic in a high run scoring environment. I still dislike them, but the risk/reward is much different when scoring is at deadball era levels. When Jake Arrieta walks the leadoff man in the seventh inning of the two-hitter he's pitching, the downside of moving that runner by making an out on purpose is relatively low.


Bernstein is Baseball stupid in many ways. The idea that striking out is no worse than any other out is the worst thought of all. When you have a runner reach base and the following hitter (less than 2 outs) makes an out but moves the runner up a base, now he in scoring position. 1st and 2nd less than 2 outs, and the batter bunts or hits a ground ball to the right side that moves both runners...good. Runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, a deep fly ball or ground ball in many cases may score the runner. A strikeout is a unproductive out and is not the equal of many outs that can actually contribute to scoring runs.


I have never been satisfied with the answers I have received to the question that if the K is the best a pitcher can do, then doesn't the equation have to balance out that it is the worst thing a batter can do.

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:37 am 
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Its not that the result is equal. Its that in projecting the future stats of a player, him striking out or grounding out doesnt make a difference.


For pitcher's projections, it does make a difference.


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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:09 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Its not that the result is equal. Its that in projecting the future stats of a player, him striking out or grounding out doesnt make a difference.



Well, that's clearly not true. We know that a batter will bat around .300 on all the balls he puts in play (given enough time and repetition). So it stands to reason that simply making more contact will result in the batter getting on base more often.

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:15 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its not that the result is equal. Its that in projecting the future stats of a player, him striking out or grounding out doesnt make a difference.



Well, that's clearly not true. We know that a batter will bat around .300 on all the balls he puts in play (given enough time and repetition). So it stands to reason that simply making more contact will result in the batter getting on base more often.

Its not enough of a difference. Do you think these guys are tanking their own projections? They want to be right.

Its not just the strikeout on its own. Its what else the player does. An example would be 35 Homeruns and 200 K's is better than 15 Homeruns and 80 K's



They believe that how a player makes his outs is not as important as how a pitcher makes his. It makes sense. How a batter gets on base is the equivalent.

A pitcher strikeout is (nearly) total control. Its the equivalent of a batter's homerun (total control).


http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/4/1/4165664/how-can-strikeouts-be-great-for-pitchers-but-not-that-bad-for-hitters


Here is a fangraphs in house dissenter in 2013

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-strikeouts-secretly-matter-for-batters/


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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:20 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its not that the result is equal. Its that in projecting the future stats of a player, him striking out or grounding out doesnt make a difference.



Well, that's clearly not true. We know that a batter will bat around .300 on all the balls he puts in play (given enough time and repetition). So it stands to reason that simply making more contact will result in the batter getting on base more often.

Its not enough of a difference. Do you think these guys are tanking their own projections? They want to be right.

Its not just the strikeout on its own. Its what else the player does. An example would be 35 Homeruns and 200 K's is better than 15 Homeruns and 80 K's



They believe that how a player makes his outs is not as important as how a pitcher makes his. It makes sense. How a batter gets on base is the equivalent.

A pitcher strikeout is (nearly) total control. Its the equivalent of a batter's homerun (total control).


http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/4/1/4165664/how-can-strikeouts-be-great-for-pitchers-but-not-that-bad-for-hitters



I'm not sure how you project how many times Kris Bryant will strike out next season, but if you're projecting that he strikes out 160 times as opposed to 220, that's twenty more hits. I'd say it's significant.

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:24 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its not that the result is equal. Its that in projecting the future stats of a player, him striking out or grounding out doesnt make a difference.



Well, that's clearly not true. We know that a batter will bat around .300 on all the balls he puts in play (given enough time and repetition). So it stands to reason that simply making more contact will result in the batter getting on base more often.

Its not enough of a difference. Do you think these guys are tanking their own projections? They want to be right.

Its not just the strikeout on its own. Its what else the player does. An example would be 35 Homeruns and 200 K's is better than 15 Homeruns and 80 K's



They believe that how a player makes his outs is not as important as how a pitcher makes his. It makes sense. How a batter gets on base is the equivalent.

A pitcher strikeout is (nearly) total control. Its the equivalent of a batter's homerun (total control).


http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/4/1/4165664/how-can-strikeouts-be-great-for-pitchers-but-not-that-bad-for-hitters



I'm not sure how you project how many times Kris Bryant will strike out next season, but if you're projecting that he strikes out 160 times as opposed to 220, that's twenty more hits. I'd say it's significant.

You have to go deeper. Were limited now to his 220 strikeout at bats. Where he is overmatched. So if he just learns to make a little contact, you cant apply the .300 bapip. Its only .300 when you count hard hit balls.

Also, he could change his swing and strikeout 50 times less but hit 12 less homeruns. Is that better?

This stuff is a little dizzying.


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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:28 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Its not that the result is equal. Its that in projecting the future stats of a player, him striking out or grounding out doesnt make a difference.



Well, that's clearly not true. We know that a batter will bat around .300 on all the balls he puts in play (given enough time and repetition). So it stands to reason that simply making more contact will result in the batter getting on base more often.

Its not enough of a difference. Do you think these guys are tanking their own projections?
]


I think they are unskilled in the macro world of statisticians and mathematicians

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 Post subject: Re: Maddon MOTY
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:30 am 
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Should he share this award with his zoo trainer?

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