Keyser Soze wrote:
I don't understand the philosophy of not drafting pitching in the 1st round.
The major flaw in your list is that you are being a Monday morning quarterback with GREAT hind site. The list only looks at the guys who have or might make it. There are potholes everywhere.......
Lets start with a two names from the list both picked in 2004.
Justin Verlander: 1-2
Jared Weaver: 1-12
Two studs no doubt but here are the pitchers taken in between these two guys
Phillip Humber 1-3
Jeff Nieman 1-4
Mark Rogers 1-5
Jeremy Sowers 1-6
Homer Bailey 1-7
Wade Townsend 1-8 never played a game in the bigs out of baseball after 2010
Thomas Diamond 1-10
So after the number 2 pick there are 7 guys and Nieman and Bailey are the only ones with any measurable success.
Go one year later in 2005 and the pitcher list is scary only 4 pitchers in the Top 15
Ricky Romero 1-6
Wade Townsend 1-8 again
Mike Plefry 1-9
Lance Broadway 1-15
So looking at just those two years there are 13 pitchers picked and one Verlander who was a slam dunk at 1-2 the rest kinda hit or mostly miss.
Now lets look at the overall strategy of taking bats over arms.
We'll use the entire history of the draft to get some numbers and see where it leads us.
Pitchers drafted in the first round 814 made it to MLB 482 59% total WAR 3,178 avg WAR for all drafted pitchers 3.9
Position players drafted in the first round 861 made it to Bigs 528 61% Total WAR 5,634 avg WAR for all drafted position players 6.5
In both sample groups about 6 out of 10 drafted players made the show.
If you take 10 pitcher and 6 make it their Avg War combined would be 23.4
taking 10 position players and if 6 make it their WAR would be 39
The fall off in position is a greater percent then the fall off in pitching from round one to round two.
What happens if you take 10 pitchers in the second round
historically 646 were drafted 277 made it and they have 1623 total WAR 2.5 WAR each
about 4 would make it and their WAR would be 9.8
A second round pitcher is only 1.4 WAR less then a first round pitcher
For the sake of ease I only looked at 2nd round OF
203 taken 90 made it 44% 752 Total WAR 3.7 avg
about 4.5 would make it and their WAR would be 16.65
a second round position player is worth 2.5 WAR less than a 1st rounder
What the Cubs are doing is like going to Las Vegas and counting cards in the old days. They are simply playing the odds and those favor getting an impact position player in the first round and then taking multiple chances in the following rounds and hoping that by buying 8 lottery tickets each year one will hit. Look at these 2 -3 round pitchers
ROUND 2
Greg Maddux 2-3 106.8 WAR
Randy Johnson 2-8 102.1
Tom Glavine 2-19 81.4
David Wells 2-2 53.6
Mark Langston 2-9 50.7
ROUND 3
Bert Blyleven 3-7 95.4
Rick Reuschel 3-19 70.0
Dennis Eckersley 3-2 63.0
David Cone 3-22 62.5
Jimmy Key 3-2 49.6
Yep it is the same kind of hind site Keyser used but some lottery tickets win.
Are the Cubs right .. or are they wrong ...... only time will tell.
_________________
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't waste my time with the Cubs.
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