McNutt got roughed up again today

3 IP 4 H 3 ER 1 BB 3 K's 3 HR's allowed

In 12 innings he has a 6.75 ERA 17 hits allowed 5 BB's 6 K's and 1.83 WHIP

You really had to question the reasoniong of sending a guy who was already struggling to a big time hitters league.

Boston's problem.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

While it was a rumor that McNutt was a the breaking point, it seems to simple to be that.

However, if I am the Cubs right now I offer $20 Wrigley bucks.

This is like selling a guy a car, he takes the car and the keys, you even signed it over to him and said you will decide how much in 2 weeks.

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

When/if an arbitrator (or Pud) gets involved then anything could happen. I would think the Cubs would want to make a deal before that happens and avoid a worst case scenario.

It's in Boston's interest to make the deal. Bud's involvement will kill any value they were going to get from the Cubs. MLB does not like the idea of putting value on executives in this way.

Is Junior Lake for real?

By John Arguello, November 6, 2011 at 8:53 am

It seemed to be a big question yesterday as Lake played SS and batted 3rd or the AFL rising stars game last night.

The bombardment of questions obviously obviously bothered Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein as he seemed to gleefully report anything that Lake did wrong during the game. Meanwhile Keith Law has said on multiple occasions that he'll wind up a pitcher and has said that Lake has zero instincts in the field or at the plate. Goldstein has said something similiar, but then again, they often agree.

I respectfully disagree. Lake obviously has some instincts and I'll get to Lake's ability to learn and adapt later. For now, let's look at the numbers. He hit well at Class A Daytona with a .315 average and 6 HRs. His ISO was a very solid .182. He held his own as one of the youngest players in AA (21) where he hit .248 with 6 HRs, though he did far better after an adjustment period where he started off slowly.

For the fall league this year he's hitting .315 with 5 HRs and 16 SBs. Of course, you'll hear it's a small sample size, and it is. You'll also hear it's a hitters league. That may well be too. But the Florida State League isn't a hitter's league and neither is the Southern League, yet Lake has put up some decent numbers in both. If you put the three "seasons" together, you get about the number of plate appearances you would for a full MLB season. Just for fun, this is what it would look like...

At Bats: 534

Avg. .285

HRs: 17

2B: 27

3B: 9

SB: 54

OBP: 324

SLG: .470

OPS: 794

The Cubs will take those kinds of numbers from their 3rd baseman. In the field, Lake has average hands and what scouts call an "80" arm, which is top of the scale. If Lake makes it to the majors, he'll have the type of arm we haven't seen since Shawon Dunston.

Jim Callis of Baseball America has a much more positive report than Goldstein or Law. BA divides up teams, so their writers become more like specialists for certain teams. As a result, Callis covers the Cubs more closely than the other two do, so I trust his opinion and his scouts most when it comes to evaluation on Cubs prospects. Phil Rogers in today's tribune quotes the following from Callis,

"He might have the best infield arm in the entire minors, he has above-average raw power and he's suddenly running wild on the bases this year. He probably winds up moving to third base in the long run because he's so big (6 foot 3, 215 pounds), but he has the tools to profile as an everyday guy there." …

This is similar to what I've heard in other conversations I've had.

Make no mistake. There is work to be done. He's not a finished product, but remember he's just 21, so deciding that he should be a pitcher at this stage is premature. Lake has already made some progress. He's made an important adjustment in that he has shortened what was previously a long swing without losing any power -- and he still isn't done growing and getting stronger. His walk rate has climbed since the beginning of the year, though it's still well below average at around 5% for both AA and the AZ Fall league. Lake may not have the same feel for the game that Starlin Castro does, but he does have some instincts and the ability to adapt to his competition.

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic. If his other tools continue to play up and Lake continues to show a good blend of power and speed with solid defense at 3B, the Cubs can live with a below average walk rate. Even with their new philosophy, the Cubs will find room for him to play if he puts up the kind of numbers he did over the 3 leagues this season.

However, when you factor in Lake's youth and the Cubs new emphasis and instruction, don't count out the potential for him to improve his overall approach at the plate as well. His ceiling is as high as almost any Cubs prospect, particularly at the upper levels. This coming year will be a big one for Lake as we see how he adapts to Epstein's new philosophy of grinding out at bats. If he picks that up, he has an excellent chance to make it and prove his doubters wrong.

Jim Callis in Baseball America has the Cubs Top 10 Prospects as

1. Brett Jackson, of
2. Javier Baez, ss
3. Matt Szczur, of
4. Trey McNutt, rhp
5. Dillon Maples, rhp
6. Wellington Castillo, c
7. Rafael Dolis, rhp
8. Junior Lake, ss
9. Josh Vitters, 3b/1b
10. Dan Vogelbach, 1b

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BA's Cubs Top Prospects

1. Brett Jackson, of
2. Javier Baez, ss
3. Matt Szczur, of
4. Trey McNutt, rhp
5. Dillon Maples, rhp
6. Wellington Castillo, c
7. Rafael Dolis, rhp
8. Junior Lake, ss
9. Josh Vitters, 3b/1b
10. Dan Vogelbach, 1b

3 members from the 2011 draft in Baez, Maples and Vogelbach.


Few of these I disagree with. But good to see a lot of very young guys on there.

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Team Cutler.

Not a bad list but Man does Callis have serious man-love for Szczur. My guy DJ LeMahieu should be in the top 10 somewhere

Cubs make 40 Man Roster Moves

By John Arguello, today at 5:12 pm

So, there were a couple of surprises today when the Cubs set their 40 man roster. According to this tweet from Christina Kahrl,

The #Cubs outright Esmailin Caridad, Kyle Smit, Lou Montanez off 40-man, add Jeff Beliveau, Junior Lake, Josh Vitters, Matt Szczur

We expected those 4 to be protected but the Cubs also left Ryan Flaherty and Dae Un Rhee exposed. The other minor surprise is that Koyie Hill is still on the roster, though he will probably be non-tendered lately as the Cubs apparently didn't need the roster space yet.

Rhee is admittedly a couple of years away from the majors, so perhaps the Cubs felt they could afford to gamble that no team would try to stash him away on the roster for a year. The same could be said of lefty Jeffrey Antigua, who has some talent but his at least 2 years from the majors.

More curious is Ryan Flaherty, who played as high as AAA last season, although he struggled at that level. His age 25, and lack of defensive ability may have led to that decision. It's also fairly obvious that Junior Lake and DJ LeMahieu have surpassed him at 3B and the Cubs felt he could not play 2B. He may not have enough bat for 1B or LF.

A couple of other mild surprises are Marwin Gonzalez and Marquez Smith. Gonzalez plays a premium position at SS and appears to be MLB ready. A team could do worse than pick him up as a low cost utilty option. Smith is a good defensive third baseman, but is already 27. He holds little value unless he plays everyday. Like Flaherty, the Cubs probably felt they had better options at 3B.

A thought occurred to me here. Might the Cubs allow the Red Sox to take Rhee as compensation and allow them to send him to the minors without exercising the right to buy him back?

Another interesting result of these moves is that the Cubs roster stands at 34 and Koyie Hill and Blake DeWitt could still get non-tendered later. That would leave the roster at 32, leaving lots of room for acquisitions and one for Brett Jackson.

I like the 40 man roster moves. Flaherty was way over matched in AAA and I don't think he translates to anything better than Dewitt at best. Lake is really starting to take his game to the next level. He could be a thing in the near future. Szcsur had to be added with his weird contract. Now get the fuck rid of Koyie Hill already.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

Your Koyie Hill hatred has been well chronicled. He is a decent defender behind the plate for a backup but these types are a dime a dozen. I do know the team winning percentage has been pretty high with him catching compared to Soto et al. I certainly won't miss him or DeWitt if they go bye bye however.

I'm not really sold on Soto either. Not great defensively and while he can put up some numbers he seems to be just another one of those guys who hits when it doesn't matter. I would be good with a complete overhall of this position.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

I'm surprised they didn't protect Steve Clevenger. I know he's hit only 21 HR's in over 2000 minor league plate appearances but I thought they liked him because his defense behind the plate has really improved? Jay Jackson is another guy who was left unprotected but I guess that's not much of a surprise.

Soto is above average, but that's about it. He's going to be pulling down some cash now, so he better produce this year or he'll be gone next year.

Not sure if Clevenger is worth a spot on the 40 man. They obviously didn't. Ditto Jackson. Some really ugly stats at Iowa for him although I guess he finished strong.

Clevenger and Jackson were both in AAA last year so if they get selected they would have to remain on a 25 man roster, which barring a season ending injury for either of them is not going to happen.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

If there are two positions where it's easier to hide a guy it's in the bullpen and backup catcher. I could see Clevenger getting popped by a team that has a veteran catcher who plays a lot. That way Clevenger would only have to play one or occasionally two days a week. Teams like Baltimore, Oakland, St Louis and Atlanta immediately come to mind.

Cubs have Wellington Castillo above Clevenger. Rumors the Cubs will look at Jason Varitek to replace Koyie Hill.

Chris Rusin continues to make his case for rotation

By John Arguello, today at 9:50 am

The Cubs have plenty of roster space to fill between now and the time players break north from Arizona next spring. There will be anywhere from 6-8 available spots on the 40 man roster. We could probably expect the Cubs to have a fair amount of turnover this season.

The first assumption is that the Cubs have the flexibility to acquire players from outside the organization either through trades, free agent signings, and perhaps the Rule 5 draft. That is a fair assumption. It seems very likely the Cubs will be active this offseason when it comes to acquiring players.

There are at least a couple of players, however, who may take a roster spot from within the organization. The first, of course, is Brett Jackson, who has a pretty good shot at being in the opening day lineup.

The second is left-handed starter Chris Rusin.

There's no secret that the Cubs would like a left-handed pitcher or two in the rotation. There are some intriguing options on the free agent market, from big name, big contract types like CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle to undervalued types like Bruce Chen, Chris Capuano, and Erik Bedard.

The Cubs may try to sign a couple of these free agents, but Rusin may offer a low-cost in-house alternative.

I've watched Rusin often in the minor leagues and most recently in the Dominican League and, if you like the art of pitching, he is a pleasure to watch. He works in the the 88-90 mph range with his fastball and, according to Baseball America, has the best change-up and command in the system. Those two factors make his otherwise average stuff play up quite a bit. Rusin attacks the lower part of the strike zone, often jumping ahead of hitters early in the count. He keeps hitters off balance by constantly changing speeds and locations so that when he does "fire" a 90 mph fastball, it probably looks more like 95 mph. Despite a fringe average fastball, hitters often fail to get a good swing on it.

Rusin numbers in the Dominican Winter league are solid. He has a 2.84 ERA and a solid 2.8/7.5 walk to strikeout ratio. That ratio is pretty much in line with his minor league career rates of 1.93/7.05.

Rusin also has had excellent groundball to flyball ratios. This winter his G/F ratio is 3.45 and it was 3.61 at Iowa this past season. The solid strikeout and ground ball numbers bode well for a pitcher in Wrigley Field, especially when the wind is blowing out, as it often does in the summer.

He's not a top end starter but he can certainly give you some solid innings at the back of the rotation, perhaps as soon as April of next season. He isn't going to beat himself out there. His FIP numbers throughout his minor league career seem to indicate that if you put a good defense around him, he'll keep you in the game consistently.

The Cubs will have plenty of room to add non-roster players before the 2012 season starts, and while most of those players will probably come from outside the organization, don't be surprised if Chris Rusin is one of them.

This is from http://chicagocubsonline.com

Baseball America released their list of the top 10 prospects in the Cubs' system last week. To no surprise, Brett Jackson topped the list, with Javier Baez and Matt Szczur rounding out the top three of the best prospects in the organization. The Cubs had several prospects take a positive step forward last season ... and unfortunately some that took a step back as well.

Of the players Baseball America thinks are among the top 10 in the system, half made the list for the second year in a row and three were selected in last year's draft.

Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod along with Oneri Fleita and Tim Wilken have a lot of work ahead of them. The Cubs' system has a lot of depth in the lower levels but is missing an impact prospect.

Here's how Baseball America thinks the Cubs' system stacks up .

Baseball America's Top 10 Cubs Prospects for 2012

1. Brett Jackson, OF (2)
2. Javier Baez, SS (NR)
3. Matt Szczur, OF (7)
4. Trey McNutt, RHP (3)
5. Dillon Maples, RHP (NR)
6. Welington Castillo, C (17)
7. Rafael Dolis, RHP (9)
8. Junior Lake, SS (27)
9. Josh Vitters, 1B/3B (5)
10. Dan Vogelbach, 1B (NR)
(2011 BA Ranking in Parenthesis)

Best Tools in the Cubs System
D.J. LeMahieu - Best Hitter for Average
Dan Vogelbach - Best Power Hitter
Matt Cerda - Best Strike-Zone Discipline
Matt Szczur - Fastest Baserunner
Matt Szczur - Best Athlete
Rafael Dolis - Best Fastball
Trey McNutt - Best Curveball
Kevin Rhoderick - Best Slider
Dae-Eun Rhee - Best Changeup
Dallas Beeler - Best Control
Welington Castillo - Best Defensive Catcher
Elliott Soto - Best Defensive Infielder
Junior Lake - Best Infield Arm
Jae-Hoon Ha - Best Defensive Outfielder
Anthony Giansanti - Best Outfield Arm

Scouting Reports on Cubs Top 10 Prospects
The scouting information provided by Baseball America is by subscription only. Here are a few of the highlights, and low-lights, for each of the Cubs top 10 prospects.

1. Brett Jackson, OF
Baseball America described Brett Jackson' tools as above-average across the board and they feel he is a potential All-Star. Jackson's power stands out the most and he possesses the bat speed, loft and strength to hit home runs to all fields.

Brett Jackson has shown a lot of improvement on pitch recognition since his college days and is willing to take walks. Jackson's swing is described as "compact" and he doesn't get himself out by chasing bad pitches. The concern is when his swing gets to mechanical and his strikeout rate goes up when he starts pulling off every pitch.

Jackson has plus-speed on the bases and in the outfield. Defensively, Jackson takes good routes to balls and gets good jumps. Jackson has played all three outfield spots in the minors and if he was to be moved to right field, he has enough arm to handle the position.

Brett Jackson is the Cubs only position player prospect that is ready to play in the majors. Due to roster constraints (Alfonso Soriano and Marlon Byrd), Jackson could start the year in Iowa.

BA thinks Brett Jackson has the upside of Jim Edmonds at the plate and possibly the same Gold Glove caliber play in centerfield.

2. Javier Baez, SS
The Cubs selected Javier Baez with the first pick in last June's draft. Baez had the best bat speed in the draft drawing comparisons to Gary Sheffield and Hanley Ramirez. The Cubs project Baez as a 70 hitter with 65 power (based on the 20-80 scouting scales).

Baez could end up at third base. He has a very good arm (described as a third well-above average tool) that could allow him to stay at short but he will likely out-grow the position.

Javier Baez has the highest ceiling of any player in the Cubs' system but he needs to mature on the field and learn how to control his emotions.

3. Matt Szczur, OF
Matt Szczur has plus-plus speed which will help him hit for average and makes him a basestealing threat ... plus it allows him to track down balls from gap to gap in the outfield.

Szczur has a short, quick swing and strength in his hands that could allow him to develop power. Szczur's biggest issue is patience at the plate.

As for defensively, Szczur has worked on his arm strength and has shown improvement ... from below-average to solid.

BA thinks Matt Szczur will begin 2012 at the Double-A level and could be in the big leagues by 2013. Szczur has the ability to move Brett Jackson from center to right.

4. Trey McNutt, RHP
Trey McNutt can hit the upper 90s with his fastball but when he does he losses control. He gets more life and can locate it better when he throws his fastball in the low 90s. McNutt has a power breaking ball that breaks like a curve but has slider velocity. McNutt's changeup is a work in progress and he needs to work on keeping the ball down instead of throwing it by hitters.

Trey McNutt should start 2012 back in Double-A but could reach the big leagues by the end of the season. McNutt has the ability to be a number two starter in a big league rotation.

5. Dillon Maples, RHP
Dillon Maples was considered the most talented high school pitcher as well as the most unsignable entering last year's draft. Maples fell to the 14th round and the Cubs paid him $2.5 million to start his pro career.

Maples features two-plus pitches, a heavy 92-96 mph fastball and a hard curveball. The question with Maples is not his arm but his mechanics ... which could lead to command problems and stress on his shoulder.

Dillon Maples did not pitch professionally last season and figures to start 2012 in low Class-A. Maples does have the stuff to be a number two starter at the big league level.

6. Welington Castillo, C
The Cubs have always liked Welington Castillo but a questionable work ethic has delayed his progress and injuries hurt Castillo's development in 2011.

Castillo's draws his power from strength not bat speed and does not give away many at bats. His impatience at the plate will keep him from hitting for a high average. As for defensively, Castillo has a well above-average arm and a quick release. Castillo's biggest issue has been his game-calling ability, which has shown improvement.

Welington Castillo should be with the Cubs in some capacity in 2012 ... likely as a backup to Geovany Soto. As BA stated, Soto is getting expensive and is inconsistent. The Cubs could view Castillo as a cheaper alternative.

7. Rafael Dolis, RHP
Another former position player the Cubs turned into a pitcher. When the Cubs signed Rafael Dolis he was a shortstop but the Cubs turned him into a pitcher prior to 2006. Tommy John Surgery (2008) has slowed his progress as he missed a majority of two seasons.

Rafael Dolis has been compared to Carlos Marmol and those comparisons became even more so when Dolis was made a full-time reliever last season.

Dolis can blow a hitter away, when he can command his pitches. Dolis throws a heavy-sinking fastball that ranges from 93-100 mph and a slider in the mid 80s that has a hard bite. The Cubs had Dolis focus on his command last season and that is the reason for a drop in his strikeouts per nine innings. Dolis learned how to pound the bottom of the strike zone, which caused more groundballs than swings and misses.

Rafael Dolis projects as a future closer if he can improve his command.

8. Junior Lake, SS
Junior Lake is three days younger than Starlin Castro and the Cubs are hoping his performance in the AFL is the beginning of things clicking for Lake.

Lake has some of the flashiest tools in the system and arguably the best arm in the minors ... not just in the Cubs' organization. Lake's range improved at short but he may be too big for the position. Lake has good hands that might translate to third base or right field.

At the plate, Lake's bat speed and strength give him above-average raw power to all fields but his lack of patience and poor pitch recognition can hurt him.

Junior Lake will likely start off 2012 at the Double-A level. If he can hit there and build on his performance in the Arizona Fall League he might end up in the majors next season.

9. Josh Vitters, 1B/3B
The former third overall pick in the 2007 draft has not developed as quickly as the Cubs had hoped. Josh Vitters is still only 22 and had a solid 2011 season.

Vitters still has the bat speed, strength and ability to put the barrel of the bat on the ball. Vitters has very good pitch recognition, makes consistent contact and uses the whole field. Vitters still has not developed much patience at the plate and is coming off a career-high 22 walks in 2011.

Vitters work ethic has been questioned but he made strides in that area as well last season. Vitters has also worked hard in the field to improve his defense. Vitters has good range, solid arm and his quick but still committed more errors (21) in 100 games than any other third baseman in the Southern League.

Josh Vitters figures to begin 2012 at the Triple-A level and could still end up as the Cubs' third baseman ... but so could several other players in the Cubs' system. BA projected Vitters as the Cubs' starting left fielder in 2015.

10. Dan Vogelbach, 1B
Dan Vogelbach has power and tons of it to all fields and he generates it with a very loose, effortless swing. Vogelbach can also recognize pitches and has the patience that would allow him to hit for average as well.

Vogelbach is a big man (6-foot, 250 pounds) that takes pride in his defense and is working on his footwork around the bag. Vogelbach projects as an average defender.

Dan Vogelbach had just 24 at bats in Rookie Ball last season but could begin 2012 with the Chiefs in low A ball.
_____________________________________________________________________

Last year's draft was a step in the right direction ... now they have to develop the players. With new leadership and hopefully a new direction, the Cubs system will be more focused starting in 2012. One of the knocks on the Cubs has been the lack of consistency in the system, especially on the defensive side. The Cubs have moved players from position to position instead of having them learn how to play one before determining how versatile they may or may not be.

A strong farm system is the key to sustained success, the Cubs have the pieces now it's a matter of turning them into fundamentally sound baseball players.

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This is from http://chicagocubsonline.com

Here is Baseball Prospectus/Kevin Goldstein's view on the Cubs system

System in 20 Words or Less: It’s not a bad system by any measurement, but it has far more depth than star power.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Brett Jackson, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Javier Baez, SS
Three-Star Prospects
3. Welington Castillo, C
4. Dillon Maples, RHP
5. Matt Szczur, OF
6. Josh Vitters, 3B
7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
8. Trey McNutt, RHP
9. Marco Hernandez, SS
Two-Star Prospects
10. Junior Lake, SS/3B
11. Rafael Dolis, RHP

Nine More:
12. Dan Vogelbach, 1B: This second-round pick is a big, unathletic, bat-only type, but his power is very real.
13. Jae-Hoon Ha, OF: He lacks the power for a corner, but he’s not quite a center fielder, so he’s a bit of a tweener.
14. Chris Carpenter, RHP: He still has outstanding velocity, but his command troubles and injury history are red flags.
15. Tony Zych, RHP: Zych, a fourth-round pick, has late-inning potential with mid- to upper-90s heat, but he needs to improve his breaking ball.
16. Ryan Flaherty, UT: He hit 19 home runs in 2011, but he doesn't have a defensive home and has to cheat for power.
17. DJ Lemahieu, INF: He’s similar to Flaherty, but without the power.
18. Zeke DeVoss, OF: He’s a speedster with a good approach, but since pitchers have no reason to fear him, his on-base skills could deteriorate.
19. Reggie Golden, OF: Golden has impressive tools, but he still has a very long way to go.
20. Marwin Gonzalez, INF: He’s certainly not an upside guy, but he could arrive as early as this year in a utility spot.

1. Brett Jackson, OF
DOB: 8/2/88
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2009 (University of California)
2011 Stats: .256/.373/.443 at Double-A (67 G), .297/.388/.551 at Triple-A (48 G)
Tools Profile: He doesn’t have any monster tools, but he is average to plus across the board.

Year in Review: This athletic outfielder put himself on the verge of the big leagues in his second full season.
The Good: Jackson doesn't have a below-average tool. He's a big, powerful athlete with the power for 20-25 home runs annually, and has more secondary skills beyond that; he also has an excellent approach at the plate and above-average speed. He's a solid center fielder and even better in a corner thanks to his arm, which is also a tick above average.
The Bad: Jackson's hitting ability is an issue. There is a significant amount of swing-and-miss in his game; he struck out once per 3.1 at-bats in 2011, leaving many to wonder if he'll ever hit for much of an average. If he slows down even a tick, he could be pushed to right field, where the offensive expectations will increase.
Ephemera: Of Jackson's 10 Triple-A home runs in 2011, six came in his first at-bat of the game; he hit .357/.413/.881 in the first inning.
Perfect World Projection: He could be an above-average everyday center fielder.
Fantasy Impact: His 20/20 potential makes him valuable in any league.
Path to the Big Leagues: Jackson will likely begin the year in Triple-A Iowa, but he should spend a significant amount of time in the big leagues this year.
ETA: 2012

2. Javier Baez, SS
DOB: 12/1/92
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2011 (Arlington Country Day School, FL)
2011 Stats: .333/.333/.500 at Rookie (3 G), .167/.167/.167 at Low A (2 G)
Tools Profile: He has outstanding offensive potential, but he’s not a pure athlete

Year in Review: Baez, who was considered to be the best pure high school hitter in the draft, went ninth overall and earned a $2.625 million bonus.
The Good: Baez can flat-out rake. He has blinding bat speed, excellent hand-eye coordination, and projects for average to plus power as he learns how to drive balls. He has solid defensive fundamentals for his age, and his arm is more than enough for the left side of the infield.
The Bad: Baez is not the kind of athlete one normally sees at shortstop. He's an average runner at best and not especially quick, leaving most to believe he'll move to third base early in his development. Some describe his play as “out of control,” and he'll need to develop a big-league approach at the plate. One scout noted that he rarely took pitches—even bad ones—in high school.
Ephemera: While the ninth overall pick in the draft has produced five players who have hit 100 or more big-league home runs, it has yet to produce a true star position player. Geoff Jenkins is arguably the best of the bunch.
Perfect World Projection: He’s an excellent hitter, but chances are good he'll end up at a less prominent position.
Fantasy Impact: He should hit for average and power.
Path to the Big Leagues: Baez will make his full-season debut at Low-A Peoria.
ETA: 2015

3. Welington Castillo, C
DOB: 4/24/87
Height/Weight: 5-10/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2004
2011 Stats: .667/.778/1.167 at Rookie (2 G), .238/.327/.381 at High-A (12 G), .286/.351/.524 at Triple-A (61 G), .154/.154/.154 at MLB (4 G)
Tools Profile: Castillo is a cather with power and a plus arm.

Year in Review: This Dominican catcher put up big numbers in Triple-A, and is seen as big league-ready.
The Good: Castillo’s combination of plus power and plus arm strength is rare in catchers. He can drive balls from gap to gap, and hits lefties and righties with equal effectiveness. His arm is easily his best defensive tool, but he's also an average receiver.
The Bad: Castillo has an aggressive approach, and can be susceptible to chasing pitches when behind in the count. He's not just slow; he's a base-clogger who grades out as a 20 runner.
Ephemera: Despite his big numbers for Iowa in 2011, Castillo went 0-for-7 with four strikeouts when batting with the bases loaded.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a 20-homer catcher who slows down the running game.
Fantasy Impact: He’s a source of power from a position where it is hard to find, but not much else.
Path to the Big Leagues: Castillo will compete for a backup catching job in spring training, but he might need to wait for a trade or for Geovany Soto to become a free agent (two years away) to get a real shot at playing every day.
ETA: 2012

4. Dillon Maples, RHP
DOB: 5/9/92
Height/Weight: 6-2/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 14th round, 2011 (Pinecrest HS, NC)
2011 Stats: N/A
Tools Profile: This teenage righty has athleticism and upside.

Year in Review: Maples was seen by many as an impossible sign due to his college commitment, but the Cubs shocked the industry by giving $2.5 million to their 14th-round pick.
The Good: Maples' upside as a starter is unmatched in the system. He already pitches in the low- to mid-90s with natural movement, and scouts think there could be more in him with some professional instruction. His power breaking ball was one of the best among prep arms in the draft. If he attended college, this very athletic pitcher would have also played football.
The Bad: Maples barely has a changeup; he simply never needed the pitch as an amateur. His delivery isn't exactly pretty, but the arm works and he throws strikes. More than anything, he just needs innings and the experience to learn how to make adjustments.
Ephemera: Only four players have ever been drafted out of Pinecrest High School, and both are father-son pairs. Maples’ father, Tim, was a second-round pick by the Orioles in 1979; former White Sox pitcher James Baldwin (1990) and his namesake son (2010) are the other pair.
Perfect World Projection: He could be an above-average big-league starter.
Fantasy Impact: It’s hard to project exact results, other than good.
Path to the Big Leagues: This spring, Maples will try to convince management that he's ready for a full-season assignment.
ETA: 2015

5. Matt Szczur, OF
DOB: 7/20/89
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Fifth round, 2010 (Villanova)
2011 Stats: .314/.366/.431 at Low-A (66 G), .260/.283/.410 at High-A (43 G)
Tools Profile: Szczur has a weird profile with tools that have little polish.

Year in Review: This former football star excelled in the Midwest League, but got a taste of reality in High-A.
The Good: Szczur is a compact athlete with the raw strength to hit 15 home runs per year. While he's not a burner, he's a plus runner who can steal a base and cover ground in the outfield. His arm is average. He earns off-the-charts grades for his makeup, and is a role model to other teammates for his effort and enthusiasm.
The Bad: Szczur is behind the curve because of his dedication to football in college. He's quite raw for a 22-year-old, has a very poor approach at the plate, and needs to improve his reads and routes. There's some funk in his swing that leaves scouts wondering about his offensive upside.
Ephemera: In 2009, Szczur took time off from his sporting career at Villanova to undergo surgery to donate bone marrow to a 19-month-old girl with leukemia. A national registry identified him as a match.
Perfect World Projection: He could be an everyday center fielder, but not a star.
Fantasy Impact: He has double-digit power and speed, but won’t put up big numbers in either category.
Path to the Big Leagues: While Szczur didn't completely solve the Florida State League, he'll begin 2012 in Double-A.
ETA: Late 2013

6. Josh Vitters, 3B
DOB: 8/27/89
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2007 (Cypress HS, CA)
2011 Stats:.283/.322/.448 at Double-A (129 G)
Tools Profile: Vitters has one of the prettiest swings around, but his progress has been slow.

Year in Review: This former third overall pick in the draft held his own in Double-A, but he still hasn't broken out.
The Good: Vitters still passes the scouting sniff test at the plate thanks to one of the quickest, smoothest swings from the right side in the minors. He'll flash plus power at times and rarely strikes out, and he has the ability to crush mistakes. He has made significant improvements defensively, and more scouts than ever believe in his ability to stay at the hot corner as an average defender with a slightly above-average arm.
The Bad: Vitters still sabotages himself at the plate by swinging at far too many bad pitches, leading to weak ground outs and popups. He's a tick below-average runner who can't take a step backward defensively without being forced to a bat-heavy position.
Ephemera: Vitters was successful in three of four stolen-base attempts during the month of June, but went 1-for-10 in all other months.
Perfect World Projection: He could be an everyday third baseman, but his star potential is fading.
Fantasy Impact: He could bring good average and a bit of power, but he’s more of a third baseman you settle for, not covet.
Path to the Big Leagues: All the Cubs can do is continue to move Vitters up. He'll begin the year at Triple-A Iowa, and has the ability to earn a September look.
ETA: 2013

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
DOB: 11/24/93
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2010
2011 Stats: .337/.443/.478 in Dominican Summer League (72 G)
Tools Profile: Candelario has a fantastic combination of pure hitting ability and offensive polish.

Year in Review: This Dominican signee was among the most impressive players in the Dominican Summer League in terms of both numbers and scouting reports.
The Good: Candelario has significant offensive potential. He earns raves for his highly-polished approach, and is a switch-hitter with power potential to all fields and a knack for consistent hard contact. He's a solid runner with the tools to become an average first baseman.
The Bad: Candelario's swing works much better from the left side; his power is reduced greatly with his contact-based swing against lefties. He's still messy defensively, and there are worries that he could be forced to first base or left field should he fill out and slow down.
Ephemera: Candelario was 16 days old when id Software released Doom, the groundbreaking first-person shooter.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a middle-of-the-order run producer.
Fantasy Impact: He hasn’t played a game in the United States, so let's calm down a bit here.
Path to the Big Leagues: Candelario will likely spend the spring adjusting to playing in the United States, then play in a short-season league. His upside is tremendous, but he's eons away.
ETA: 2016

8. Trey McNutt, RHP
DOB: 8/2/89
Height/Weight: 6-4/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 32nd round, 2009 (Shelton State Community College)
2011 Stats: 4.55 ERA (95.0-120-39-65) at Double-A (23 G)
Tools Profile: He’s a big guy who throws hard.

Year in Review: McNutt, who was arguably the Cubs’ top pitching prospect entering the year, was constantly hampered by injuries and mechanical issues.
The Good: After sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97-98 consistently in 2010, McNutt was more low- to mid-90s in 2011 as his delivery became stiff and mechanical. He still has a plus slider with heavy two-plane break, and scouts love his aggressive demeanor.
The Bad: While McNutt combined velocity and command in 2010, his ability to locate disappeared last year, often leaving him behind in the count, and quite hittable. His changeup is a below-average pitch, and with his struggles and injuries, some scouts would like to see what he can do out of the bullpen.
Ephemera: While Shelton State has produced 22 draft picks, former Arizona and San Francisco reliever Brandon Medders is the only one to pitch in the big leagues.
Perfect World Projection: He could be somebody who strikes hitters out, but whether that's as a starter or reliever is still to be determined.
Fantasy Impact: We need to know his role first.
Path to the Big Leagues: McNutt never got on track in 2011, and he'll return to Double-A in 2012.
ETA: 2013

9. Marco Hernandez, SS
DOB: 9/6/92
Height/Weight: 6-0/170
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2009
2011 Stats: .333/.375/.486 at Rookie (51 G)
Tools Profile: He’s a legitimate shortstop with some hitting ability.

Year in Review: This Dominican teenager put up big numbers in his stateside debut.
The Good: Hernandez is a true shortstop with above-average speed, quick reactions, range to both sides, and a strong arm. He's a switch-hitter with a line-drive swing from both sides, and has shown the occasional ability to drive one into the gap.
The Bad: Hernandez does not have a projectable frame, so he'll never develop much in the way of power. He needs to improve his on-base skills to avoid being relegated to the end of a lineup. Hernandez needs to slow the game down defensively, as he's prone to errors on routine ground balls when he rushes the play.
Ephemera: Hernandez was born in the Dominican city of Moca, which is also known as “La Villa Heroica,” due to the role citizens of the city had in overthrowing dictator Rafael Trujillo.
Perfect World Projection: He’s an everyday shortstop, and there aren't 30 of those in the big leagues.
Fantasy Impact: It’s limited due to a lack of secondary skills.
Path to the Big Leagues: Hernandez will compete for a full-season gig this spring, but he’ll likely play for short-season Boise in 2012.
ETA: 2015

10. Junior Lake, SS/3B
DOB: 3/27/90
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2007
2011 Stats: .315/.336/.498 at High-A (49 G), .248/.300/.380 at Double-A (67 G)
Tools Profile: He’s big, athletic, and toolsy.

Year in Review: Lake was on the verge of a breakout year, but his first exposure to the upper levels exposed many holes in his game.
The Good: Lake has always had impressive tools. He's the best-looking player in a uniform, and has above-average power and speed to go with an easy 80 arm that one scout called the best in the Cubs’ system since Shawon Dunston.
The Bad: Lake's game is ugly. He's a complete mess at the plate with very little discipline, and he’s a sloppy defender who needs to improve his actions and footwork. He certainly has upside, but there is so much work to be done that several teams who want to turn him into a power reliever have approached the Cubs.
Ephemera: Lake began 2011 by going 27 straight games without a walk. That ended on May 7, when he drew a pair of free passes.
Perfect World Projection: He’ll be a player with some power, some speed, and at some position to be determined.
Fantasy Impact: He could contribute in several categories, but we don't know what his peer group is; Lake’s value deteriorates if he ends up in the outfield.
Path to the Big Leagues: Lake will return to Double-A, and he's one of those players who could reach the big leagues quickly , or get stuck at the upper levels.
ETA: Late 2013.

11. Rafael Dolis, RHP
DOB: 1/10/88
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2004
2011 Stats: 3.22 ERA (72.2-61-35-48) at Double-A (51 G); 0.00 ERA (1.1-0-1-1) at MLB (1 G)
Tools Profile: Dolis is a traditional righty reliever with a plus sinker/slider combination.

Year in Review: Following a second-half surge, this reliever made his major-league debut.
The Good: Dolis has two easy plus pitches: His fastball sits at 94-97 mph with plenty of natural sink, and his slider has late, explosive movement through the zone. He took well to his first year as a reliever, as his stuff played up in small doses.
The Bad: Dolis can get a bit violent with his delivery and lose the strike zone. He adjusts by taking too much off his pitches. Scouts are perplexed that a pitcher with his stuff can sometimes have such an inability to put away hitters.
Ephemera: Dolis did not allow a run in 19 of his final 20 appearances in the Southern League.
Perfect World Projection: He’s a set-up man on a good team, but he could close here and there.
Fantasy Impact: He has some potential for saves, but he’s risky.
Path to the Big Leagues: Dolis made his big-league debut in 2012, and should get more innings with the Cubs this year, though he probably won’t break camp in the majors.
ETA: 2012

The Sleeper: Venezuelan teenager Gioskar Amaya is a plus runner with excellent contact ability who could grow into a utility role, and possibly a bit more.

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/86 or later)
1. Starlin Castro, SS
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Javier Baez, SS
4. Andrew Cashner, RHP
5. Welington Castillo, C
6. Dillon Maples, RHP
7. Matt Szczur, OF
8. Josh Vitters, 3B
9. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
10. Trey McNutt, RHP

Starlin Castro is a no-brainer at the top. I'm always surprised about the focus on what he can't do, as opposed to what he can. Yes, he's a substandard shortstop who will likely have to move left or right in the next three to five years. No, he won’t draw many walks. But he's also a player who just had 291 total bases in the big leagues as a 21-year-old and has face-of-the-franchise offensive potential. Cashner has looked good stuff-wise in his return from injuries, but he's likely bullpen-only at this point, and his command is far from all the way back. Missing the list is Casey Coleman who pitched 84 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2011, which is about 84 1/3 more than he should have.

Summary: The new collective bargaining agreement adds some challenges to the existing Theo Epstein system of scouting and player development. While there are plenty of future big-leaguers in the organization, most of the players who are going to turn things around are not here yet.

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Adios Ryan Flaherty (Orioles) and Marwin Gonzalez (Red Sox).

Lendy Castillo looks interesting. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... stil001len

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Ahhh...good to see they finally worked out the compensation "thing" for Theo. Seems fair.

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Proud to be UNVERIFIED.

The Cubs decided to protect Josh Vitters and his .758 career minor league OPS and not protect Ryan Flaherty and his .806 career minor league OPS. Flaherty is the better defensive player too. It will be interesting to see if they made the correct call.

Flaherty is also going to be 26, isn't he? I would have protected him though.

Flaherty tore up AA but was by no means a youthful prospect. He was bad when he got to AAA. I didn't check on him the last few weeks of the season so maybe his stats evened out but he was bad when he got there. No way in hell the Orioles actually keep him on their 25 man roster unless he gets hurt and they can hide him on the big league DL for the entire year. Expect to see him back around the last week or 2 of spring training.

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That's my purse! I don't know you!

He'll stick all year.

Agreed. Baltimore has absolutely no one at 2b or 3b best they have is Robert Andino and 2 kids Josh Bell and Ryan Adams.. Flaherty can hit but is not much in the field and at 25 he did not fit the Theo/Jed mold. Vitters at 22 still has more upside even though he also is a questionable fielder but his bat is still possibly worth the wait. All things considered Vitters was a better prospect at this point.

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