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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:28 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm not saying Lester is having a terrible season, but all that "unlucky" stuff is just claptrap. Nobody is scoring much. Runs are at a premium. If most games you pitch in are 2-1 and you're always the guy allowing the 2, how good can you be?

2.50 ERA or thereabouts. So...pretty flippin good.



It's not remarkable. And in the games he's pitched there has often been another starter who allowed less on that day. I don't call that luck. I call it getting beat.

Lester has "faced", and "beaten" Jacob deGrom, Lance Lynn, and Gerritt Cole

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:51 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm not saying Lester is having a terrible season, but all that "unlucky" stuff is just claptrap. Nobody is scoring much. Runs are at a premium. If most games you pitch in are 2-1 and you're always the guy allowing the 2, how good can you be?


How is this not unlucky?

Christopher D. Long ‏@octonion Jul 18 Toronto, Ontario
Cubs have scored an average of 2.83 runs/game when Lester starts, 4.09 runs/game when Lester doesn't start.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:54 am 
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If he didn't hand pick that bum Ross , maybe he'd get more run support.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:57 am 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm not saying Lester is having a terrible season, but all that "unlucky" stuff is just claptrap. Nobody is scoring much. Runs are at a premium. If most games you pitch in are 2-1 and you're always the guy allowing the 2, how good can you be?


How is this not unlucky?

Christopher D. Long ‏@octonion Jul 18 Toronto, Ontario
Cubs have scored an average of 2.83 runs/game when Lester starts, 4.09 runs/game when Lester doesn't start.


Okay, so he's a Cub's era Jason Bere.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:10 pm 
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Bucky Chris wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'm not saying Lester is having a terrible season, but all that "unlucky" stuff is just claptrap. Nobody is scoring much. Runs are at a premium. If most games you pitch in are 2-1 and you're always the guy allowing the 2, how good can you be?


How is this not unlucky?

Christopher D. Long ‏@octonion Jul 18 Toronto, Ontario
Cubs have scored an average of 2.83 runs/game when Lester starts, 4.09 runs/game when Lester doesn't start.

Arrieta, Hammel and Hendricks are responsible for the Cubs scoring 1.26 additional runs per game. They know how to handle the wood.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:12 pm 
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312player wrote:
If he didn't hand pick that bum Ross , maybe he'd get more run support.


True.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:15 pm 
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Since the beginning of June, Miguel Montero was hitting under .200 with an OPS in the low .600's.

In that time frame, David Ross is also hitting under .200 with an OPS in the mid .500's.

The catcher position has not been a positive contributor to this offense in two months.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 1:22 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Since the beginning of June, Miguel Montero was hitting under .200 with an OPS in the low .600's.

In that time frame, David Ross is also hitting under .200 with an OPS in the mid .500's.

The catcher position has not been a positive contributor to this offense in two months.


It is all about the framing of the pitches

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:24 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Bucky Chris wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
IMU wrote:
Jon Lester since May 1

96 IP, 92 K, 26 BB, 2.72 ERA, .227 BAA, 1.12 WHIP

Awesome stuff. Resulted in what 2wins? He's great. Sign him all over again.


Runs scored in Lester's 8 losses


0-2-0-3-0-0-0-1

Unlucky. Too bad he's been facing Cy Young in those games.

He doesnt face the opposing pitcher. He faces the opposing offense.

He's not been great overall but he's been pretty solid lately


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:25 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
He doesnt face the opposing pitcher. He faces the opposing offense.

He's not been great overall but he's been pretty solid lately

He has been pretty solid overall, and great recently.

1.97 ERA over his last 7.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:29 pm 
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IMU wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
He doesnt face the opposing pitcher. He faces the opposing offense.

He's not been great overall but he's been pretty solid lately

He has been pretty solid overall, and great recently.

1.97 ERA over his last 7.

He's been about the 20th best pitcher in the league.

I need him to be top 10ish


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:31 pm 
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Lester is the 6th SP by WAR over the last 30 days.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:35 pm 
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Cubs have one of the best 1-2 combinations in baseball since beginning of May, and these Cubs fans are still bitching.

So Lester had a 2.72 ERA since May 1st, right?

Arrieta, who we all agree is amazing, has a 2.65 ERA in that same stretch.

Let's ask JORR what those 0.07 runs per 9 innings mean.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:43 pm 
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So, taking away the games he was bad, he has been good

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:44 pm 
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If you are saying you didn't bring him here to win games, you are lying.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:46 pm 
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the current top 5 rotations based upon FIP

Cubs
Nationals
StLouis
Pirates
Dodgers


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:48 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
So, taking away the games he was bad, he has been good

He had a bad April. It was unfortunate. It is far in the rear view mirror.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:49 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
If you are saying you didn't bring him here to win games, you are lying.

The Cubs have a winning record with Jon Lester on the mound, and he has outdueled Cole, Wainwright and deGrom.

He was brought here to improve the pitching rotation, and the pitching rotation is improved.

The signing of Jon Lester has been a great success.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:52 pm 
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IMU wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
If you are saying you didn't bring him here to win games, you are lying.

The Cubs have a winning record with Jon Lester on the mound, and he has outdueled Cole, Wainwright and deGrom.

He was brought here to improve the pitching rotation, and the pitching rotation is improved.

The signing of Jon Lester has been a great success.

You sound like a used car salesman trying to sale this.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:56 pm 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
IMU wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
If you are saying you didn't bring him here to win games, you are lying.

The Cubs have a winning record with Jon Lester on the mound, and he has outdueled Cole, Wainwright and deGrom.

He was brought here to improve the pitching rotation, and the pitching rotation is improved.

The signing of Jon Lester has been a great success.

You sound like a used car salesman trying to sale this.


more like a communist propaganda minister

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:58 pm 
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Buster wrote:
the current top 5 rotations based upon FIP

Cubs
Nationals
StLouis
Pirates
Dodgers


If you believe this to be true then you should be holding management to a higher standard in acquiring something at the trade deadline.

I am of the opinion they have enough to win in the NL this year

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:59 pm 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
IMU wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
If you are saying you didn't bring him here to win games, you are lying.

The Cubs have a winning record with Jon Lester on the mound, and he has outdueled Cole, Wainwright and deGrom.

He was brought here to improve the pitching rotation, and the pitching rotation is improved.

The signing of Jon Lester has been a great success.

You sound like a used car salesman trying to sale this.


Yup.

A Jew hating used care salesman.

Oh, the horror!


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:01 pm 
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The statistics don't lie. We all knew Lester did not start his Cubs career off well. But after that first month (so, far the large majority of the season) he has matched Arrieta, someone we all agree is pitching very well. Lester's ERA is below his career average, and continuing to drop after each start. The ERA difference between NL and AL starters is approximately .35, so even when you factor that in, over the course of the full 2015 season, he has been who he has always been. And by the time the season ends, he will probably have had his second best season (next to 2014).

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:01 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Buster wrote:
the current top 5 rotations based upon FIP

Cubs
Nationals
StLouis
Pirates
Dodgers


If you believe this to be true then you should be holding management to a higher standard in acquiring something at the trade deadline.

I am of the opinion they have enough to win in the NL this year

Believe it to be true? It is a statement of fact.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:03 pm 
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IMU wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Buster wrote:
the current top 5 rotations based upon FIP

Cubs
Nationals
StLouis
Pirates
Dodgers


If you believe this to be true then you should be holding management to a higher standard in acquiring something at the trade deadline.

I am of the opinion they have enough to win in the NL this year

Believe it to be true? It is a statement of fact.


I meant if you believe this stat to accurately reflect reality.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:16 pm 
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ERA obviously more accurately measures actual performance over a period of time. But I like FIP for predicting near future results.

A pitcher usually remains pretty steady with strikeout rates and homeruns over the course of their career, until the end where they lose velocity and stuff. Batting average of balls in play can fluctuate a lot from one set of 10 starts to the other set of 10 starts though. It normalizes over a long period of time, but a pitcher that is "good" can have a stretch of bad luck. I think BABIP is good at showing recent luck.

FIP stresses the importance of things a pitcher can control.

edit: beginnings of a long explanation of FIP removed because I don't have the time :P and it won't change anyone else's mind. You either like FIP or you don't.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:43 pm 
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IMU wrote:
ERA obviously more accurately measures actual performance over a period of time. But I like FIP for predicting near future results.

A pitcher usually remains pretty steady with strikeout rates and homeruns over the course of their career, until the end where they lose velocity and stuff. Batting average of balls in play can fluctuate a lot from one set of 10 starts to the other set of 10 starts though. It normalizes over a long period of time, but a pitcher that is "good" can have a stretch of bad luck. I think BABIP is good at showing recent luck.

FIP stresses the importance of things a pitcher can control.

edit: beginnings of a long explanation of FIP removed because I don't have the time :P and it won't change anyone else's mind. You either like FIP or you don't.


I am not making a statement about the quality of FIP or any other pitcher metric.

What I am saying is that if you think the Cubs have the best pitching staff in the NL, this whole talk about "a year early" or "not ready to win it all" is garbage. Win now. Maybe win tomorrow as well but win now.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:45 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
I am not making a statement about the quality of FIP or any other pitcher metric.

What I am saying is that if you think the Cubs have the best pitching staff in the NL, this whole talk about "a year early" or "not ready to win it all" is garbage. Win now. Maybe win tomorrow as well but win now.

Hard to pick a best. But they are clearly in the conversation.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:30 pm 
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Anyway ya polished that turd..its still a turd.

Ross blows, he always n ain't getn better at 38. It was a mistake to let Lester bring this scrub with him . He's hitting a . 184 :?: you can't justify that garbage with any stat.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:51 pm 
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He wasn't brought in to hit. A catcher's defense is supremely important.

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