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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:40 pm 
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... -continue/

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With an 8-4 victory in Los Angeles Thursday night, the Chicago Cubs took a 3-2 NLCS lead over the LA Dodgers and now head back to Chicago just one win away from the World Series. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo prediction model, the Cubs have an 81 percent chance of capturing the franchise’s first pennant since 1945. And with a 51 percent probability of winning the World Series, Chicago is now more likely than not to end its 108-year drought and celebrate a title for the first time since 1908.



Now I'm going to go throw up.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:42 pm 
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:43 pm 
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5 more games

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:43 pm 
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Yeah, right... Does their model include having to face Kershaw?

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:45 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Yeah, right... Does their model include having to face Kershaw?


Obviously...didn't you read it?

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:46 pm 
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Of course, Cubs fans have heard some version of this before. The team entered Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS under the same conditions — up three games to two, needing only to win one of the next two games (both at Wrigley Field) to clinch the pennant — but then disaster struck. They also led the 1984 NLCS two games to none, needing to win only one of the next three games in San Diego to advance (back when the league championship series used a best-of-five format). That advantage conferred an even greater pennant probability1 than Chicago has now or had in 2003,2 and they still managed to blow it. So Chicagoans can be forgiven if they’re not booking travel to Cleveland quite yet.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:46 pm 
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GoldenJet wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Yeah, right... Does their model include having to face Kershaw?


Obviously...didn't you read it?


No.

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