What is it that makes the lineup so bipolar? Four shutouts in the playoffs, but the rest of the games, they've scored in bunches. Is it because of their constant attempts to draw walks? Pitchers who pound the zone make them look bad? I can't figure it out.

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Variance

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

AL Central is the best!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Throughout the season, the team was 4th in the MLB in plate discipline on pitches outside the zone, swinging at only 28.8% of pitches outside what can reasonably be defined as the average strike zone.

Last night, for instance, they swung at 42% of balls outside that zone.

However, when being shutout by power pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jensen, their plate discipline figures return to normal.

From the Pitch f/x data, it looks as though they are a team that struggles mightily on hitting breaking balls, their swing-and-miss percentage hovering in the 40-60% range.

They're all expanding, Bryant and Baez most notably. Id love to see Bryant's late inning high leverage AB splits for the year. He just seems to freak in those situations and totally loses strike zone discipline.

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

Early in the season, there was a long string of games where they saw more pitches per plate appearance than their opponent. They were seeing more pitches in 8 innings at home than they were throwing in 9 innings. Good starters, bad starters, didn't matter.

The strike zone seems to expand just a little bit in the playoffs as umpires reward good pitchers for hitting the corner perfectly, and it helps the opponent more than the Cubs.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

He was bad all year at it. I remember looking it up back around the trade deadline, and it was substantially worse than low leverage situations.

Bryant Hi/Med/Lo leverage OPS: .754/.896/1.030
David Ortiz H/M/L: 1.027/1.066/.973

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

You're correct. I posted them during the NLDS. Bryant is a bad high leverage hitter.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

So....is this something a player gets better at with experience? I ask this not because of Ortiz's numbers, but because of Bryant's. Just wondering if anyone knew off the top of their heads...

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I'm not sure. If it were true that a player can demonstrate an ability to "get better" at performing at or above career norms in high leverage situations, I think we would have to define that as "clutch", which is something Joe Sheehan, via Dan Bernstein, has told me over and over and over doesn't exist.

For reference, Ortiz's career in High/Medium/Low Leverage situations (in OPS+ relative to his career OPS) is 102/106/93. Bryant for his career is 91/103/102.

If we want to define "clutch" as "at least career average in high leverage situations", then David Ortiz is clutch, and Kris Bryant is a choke-artist. Bear in mind though, Bryant's career line (AVG/OBP/SLG) in high leverage situations is .288/.380/.470 in 258 PA's, which would be All-Star caliber for an overall batting line.

Gotcha. Those career numbers for Bryant seem pretty good. I guess what we're talking about is situational hitting? I wonder if contact hitters fare better in this regard than "power" hitters (even those who, like Bryant, hit for power and average). I also wonder if those stats take into account the quality of the pitcher. Can of worms, this.

Essentially, I think Bryant is smart enough to learn to be a better situational hitter. But your stats seem to show that he's pretty good as it is....

Leaving to see what Harold Baines's stats are....

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The Cubs have been like this since last year. Nothing new.

RELAX #TheyGotThis

It's because they can't hit a goddamn breaking ball. Kluber has hung some in the zone tonight, and we swing right through them. Same thing happened last year... I remember Theo saying that the Mets "pitched backwards" against the Cubs by leading at-bats with breaking balls.

First order of business in the offseason is for Theo's magic computer to find out which free agents have the most success against off-speed pitches and to sign those players so that we can platoon in the playoffs. This is the same thing that ended us last year.

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I understand the high leverage stats thing but Bryant has gotten some huge hits. Home run to tie game 3 against SF was pretty big.

Hopefully it averages out in time.

Jeter was a playoff monster his first few years but eventually he played about a seasons worth and his numbers were typical Jeter. 300ish...20 HRs and 90 RBI


I guess what I'm saying is I hope Bryant plays 162 postseason games

Baez and Contreras look awful, if I see Contreras fake bunt on the first pitch (usually a meatball) and then fall behind swinging at garbage I'm going to bust my TV.

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The fake bunt thing is out of control. He has been doing it all playoffs, and it's ridiculous. It's not fucking little league. Get ready, and smoke the first good pitch you get. Contreras, Baez, and Bryant have been swinging at shit all series. Baez is no doubt feeling all the attention he's been getting for the glove, but the bat really wasn't nothing special. It only looked that way because nobody was really hitting at the time. You can get him out every time just throwing sliders, no reason to throw a fastball.

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Fuck Edwards and Zobrist

The other thing about Contreras' fake bunts is that half the time he doesn't even fake it until after it leaves the pitcher's hand. What is that supposed to accomplish? The point is to make the pitcher think twice. The only thing it accomplishes is to run the risk of stabbing a bunt at a ball out of the zone and getting an unnecessary strike.

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Draw the third baseman in on future pitches.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Its maddening watching the replays of Tomlin throwing dogshit and one Cub after the next is hacking away at that shit..no chance that happens again, West is behind the plate tonight, he squeezes pitchers too.

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What about Joe Crede? Robert Horry?

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take a look at Tomlin's numbers in September and October this year

The guy has been pretty dominant.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Against a weak AL. Keep up.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

sometimes I forget things

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Bump.

Same thing, different year.

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Let's hope with the same ultimate results.

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