I started crunching some numbers last night. It may be too early for this but I took a nap yesterday (which I never do) and as a result I couldn't fall asleep (which is why I don't nap).

The cubs have played 43 games and are 21-22 (.488 winning %). If you figure it will take 90 wins to win the division that means the cubs have to go 69-50 (.580 winning %) the rest of the season. That's not impossible but have they shown any signs of being able to put a run like that together? When the hitting is good the pitching is bad, when the pitching is good the hitting is bad. The only consistent part of this team has been the bullpen and that's been consistently bad.

Another potential problem is the cubs may not have the payroll flexibility to add an impact player at the deadline. The Brewers and Cardinals have already said they have flexibility and both have pretty good minor league systems that will allow them to acquire an impact player.

The cubs haven't made things easy on themselves but they can still make up the ground if they don't fall back any further.

I am having trouble imaginging this team playing at a .580 clip at any time in the future. Too many holes. And now with Harden going down the one stregnth of this team is being tested. When you have a bullpen that is this awful you are going to lose more close games than you win and that will plague this team the rest of the year.

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frank, did you steal this so you could get an email read on the saloon?

Hard to know what to expect from this group. I do expect that Bradley, Soto, Fontenot and Lee, will hit better than they have so far. I do expect Lou to figure out the bullpen problems to some degree. Whether Hendry gets him help in a trade, or they just put a current starter into the bullpen when Harden comes back and maybe get some help from the minors later this summer. I am hoping Samardjia can get his control problems squared away and get his breaking ball over more often. he could provide much needed help. if things go right, there is no reason they can't play .600 ball. But if things don't break right and they continue as they have for the first 2 months, that won't happen.

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Go Cubs!!!!

They have to play 5 games better than St. Louis and Pittsburgh ball, which I'm sure they can.

Update:

The cubs have to go 56-37 (.602 winning %) in their remaining 93 games to get to 90 wins. The Cardinals are on pace to win 88 games.

And here's the crazy thing about numbers and how quickly things can change.

After today's games, the Cards and Brewers are on pace to win 87 games.

To win 87, the Cubs have to go 52-40 (.565 winning %).

And don't forget they are only .5 games further out of the wildcard than they are out of the division.

Parity, parity, parity.

And unless A-Ram is a total bust after he comes back, you have to figure they are a better team with him.

Also they've played the Pirates only 3 times. They have 12 more meetings coming up. Not to mention 7 against Washington.

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.

It doesn't look like it will this year, so this math goes out the window.

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Go Cubs!!!!

The Cardnals and Brewers have the payroll flexibility and the resources to add an impact player on or before the trading deadline. 90 wins is a very good possibility for both teams.

Then they have to go 55-39 from here out to get to 88 wins. Not likely with or without Aram.

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But you have Milton Bradley. Doesn't that make up for Aramis?

I would be more confident betting against either winning 90, than betting they will.

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Go Cubs!!!!

If they are 5 games out on September 1st they are in the race...this season...any season.....In this Division they could be 5 games up on September 1st.

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There goes one over the fence..Tru Link Fence..Beauty, Privacy Security....Call Tru Link.
Murph's Union 76 Truck Stop....A great Thanksgiving Tradition!!!!

WOO LIFE!!!!

to keep it fair and balanced

Detroit is on a pace to win 90 games, Sox have to go 53-34 (.609 ball) to tie.

To keep it even fairer the Sox had nowhere near the expectations the Cubs did, and about $39M less in payroll. Also:

Raul Ibanez: 62 games, .312/.371/.656, 22 HR, 59 RBI, $7.2M
Milton Bradley: 58 games, .232/.349/.367 $7.0M, 5 HR, 16 RBI, $7.0M

Steroids or not—and no doubt Ibanez is using some kind of PED—Jim Hendry has a pretty shitty record signing outfielders.

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I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires. -Susan B. Anthony

Update:

Cards on pace to win 86. To tie, Cubs need to go 34-31. That's .523. To clinch, 35-30, .538.

They are also just 1 game out of the wildcard race.

The magic # is 63.



Thank you NL Central.

I think what we are witnessing is the Cubs and Cards pulling away from the rest of the teams in the central over the next few weeks. They have the best pitching in the division and one of them will win the division by less than 3 games.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

I tend to agree with this thought. The thing to watch is the Rockies and Giants and if they have enough to hold on for the wild card. I wouldnt be too shocked if the loser of the Cubs/Cards derby ended up backing into a wild card berth.

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Which is 3 wins (to tie, 4 to clinch) games better than they have played over the last 2 months.

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Yeah, but wait until Prior and Wood come back.

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Update:

Cards are on pace to win 89 and the cubs 85. To win 90 the Cards have to go 27-20 (.574) and the cubs 32-19 (.627). The Cards have 25 home games and 22 road games remaining while the cubs have 28 home and 23 on the road.

Thanks for the update Keyser. These are tough numbers to look at as a
Cubs fan. They are going to have to pull their heads out of their asses,
seeing as they only have 3 more head to head games and they are at St
Louis.

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Flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami

The Cardinals are on pace to win 93 games and the cubs are on pace to win 82. For the cubs to win 94 games they need to go 32-8 (.800) in their remaining 40 games. They have 25 home games and 15 road games remaining.

Math sucks.

Yes. But the Black Hole did not. I love it.

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My Mother was a witch...she was burned alive
Thankless little bitch, for the tears I cried
Take her down now, don't wanna see her face.
All blistered and burnt, can't hide my disgrace.
Am I evil? Yes. I am.