http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -dempster/

Warning, lots of scary saber stats. If you don't give them much credit, should probably skip.

The conclusion is more or less bad luck. He's throwing his 2 seem fastball and his slider is actually breaking more than it did last year. His velocity is the same.

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Team Cutler.

His LD% is up .2 from his career average at 19.8. Actually, all of his metrics look the same at least in terms of line drives, fly balls and ground balls.

The major crazy outlier is his HR/FB which is at 22.5% when his career average is 10.8%.

If he didn't lose any velocity and his slider is indeed moving more, then maybe it's something mechanical if he's missing spots or really just a lot of bad luck.

It has to be somewhere in the middle, no one gets shelled like he did in Arizona purely by bad luck.

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Team Cutler.