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 Post subject: Gamblers POV
PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:38 am 
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Today’s MLB ’15 preview is on a team that is approaching the new season with its highest expectations in some time, and there’s abundant reason for the optimism.

No need to dwell on the unfortunate history of the Chicago Cubs. Anyone who even casually follows baseball is well aware of all that negativity. But Cubs fans are in a euphoric state these days as the team seems poised to be on the cusp of a breakthrough toward serious contention.

The Theo Epstein game plan for success received an unexpected boost courtesy of what amounts to some fine print in Joe Maddon’s contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. There was an out clause he wasn’t even aware of that kicked in if Andrew Friedman left. When the latter departed St. Petersburg for Los Angeles and a huge gig with the Dodgers, the former basically became a free agent. Enter Epstein and the Cubs and presto, the Cubbies suddenly had themselves one of the game’s superstar managers.

Maddon expects to win right away and the pieces are in place to do exactly that. The Cubs might be one year away from being cast as favorites to make the playoffs, but it’s certainly a possibility as soon as this season.

The staff is suddenly a strength with Jon Lester in the ace role. Jake Arrieta is a legit #2 now that he’s harnessed his command, Jason Hammel is a good fit in the middle of the rotation and Travis Wood is an acceptable #4. I believe the bullpen is actually a bit underrated as I like Hector Rondon as a breakout closer and he’s got some okay setup candidates to get him those ninth inning opportunities.

The lineup is a little less certain, but really only because of inexperience. Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, they’re all almost can’t miss stars. Anthony Rizzo has already arrived at that level and he’s a genuine team leader. Starlin Castro should be at his best under Maddon. And don’t be surprised to see Maddon get the best out of Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler and catcher Miguel Montero, all of whom are very capable players.

The only question I have is whether or not the Cubs can make the big jump to playoff contention this soon. I wouldn’t rule it out, that’s for sure. The O/U is 81.5, and while I haven’t played this prop yet, I’m still considering buying the Over. The bottom line for Cubs faithful now is no longer if, it’s when. It’s only a matter of time.

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 Post subject: Re: Gamblers POV
PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:58 am 
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play on volatility.

the allure of "new" and upside is intoxicating to losing bettors. 100+ years of baseball indicates rookies rarely step in and dominate. let alone a team depending on multiple rookies. the under is the play.


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 Post subject: Re: Gamblers POV
PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:06 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
play on volatility.

the allure of "new" and upside is intoxicating to losing bettors. 100+ years of baseball indicates rookies rarely step in and dominate. let alone a team depending on multiple rookies. the under is the play.


yep. this guy's prolly a shill for the books. Quick analysis of the Cubs schedule and they'll have enough trouble treading water vs last year's
record than besting it by 10 wins.

Quote:
Cubs were 33-43 in the division in 2014. any ground they make up there, 38-38?, goes out the window in inter-league play this season.

Cubs caught the AL East in an historically down year for the AL East; still only managing a 9-11 record against the AL East in the depths of their doldrums.

Cubs have to take on a rejuvenated AL Central this season in inter-league play. Tigers, AL 2014 World Series reps Royals, White Sox ('course) and the Terry "po'd at theo" Francona led Indians.

AL traditionally thumps the NL 2 to 1 win/loss ratio in inter-league play; expect the Cubs 2015 inter-league record to follow that template.

Cubs went 73-89 overall. 42-54 in the division/inter-league combined. So 31-35 against the rest of the NL in 2014. Even if they pull up to .500/near .500 against the rest of th NL, that's only another 3-4 wins. Give em another win or two (at most) NET vs the division/inter-league combined and Cubs are looking at 77-79 wins--if Arrieta doesn't regress, Jay Lester doesn't get injured, Rondon doesn't get blown up etc, etc,etc.

Take the under.


And the Cubs are 82.5 at most books. White Sox at 81.5.


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 Post subject: Re: Gamblers POV
PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:11 am 
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Kirkwood wrote:
play on volatility.

the allure of "new" and upside is intoxicating to losing bettors. 100+ years of baseball indicates rookies rarely step in and dominate. let alone a team depending on multiple rookies. the under is the play.


That is how I read it. It seemed like that was written from a bookies POV to their degenerates. "Hey losers, get in on the ground floor and win MONEY, MONEY, MONEY! I'm not playing it but you should!"

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