Could Rizzo be this seasons MVP? If the Cubs keep winning, he has a good chance.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/61959/thursdays-top-5-anthony-rizzo-mvp-candidate1. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs. OK, there were some great pitching performances on this night, but I wanted to talk about Rizzo because it's time we talk about Rizzo. The Cubs first baseman belted a three-run home run in the third inning to give the Cubs a 4-0 lead on their way to a 7-1 victory over Braves. He's now hitting .291/.402/.538, with 24 home runs and 73 RBIs. Considering his numbers, his importance to the Chicago lineup, his designation as team leader, and the Cubs' place in the playoff race, he's become a strong MVP contender.
Rizzo turned on a first-pitch, 97.7 mph heater from Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, hooking it just inside the right-field foul pole. Rizzo stands right on top of the plate, daring pitchers to throw inside fastballs past him. That leads to a lot of HBPs -- he's been hit 24 times, a Cubs record -- but gives him outstanding plate coverage.
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By standing close to the plate, Rizzo can still yank those outside pitches with authority -- only one of his 24 home runs has gone left of center field. When it comes to his power, he's a dead-pull hitter. Overall, he ranks ninth in the majors in wOBA on pitches in the outer third of the strike zone (or outside).
Rizzo is a rarity these days: a power hitter who averages fewer than one strikeout per game. Among the 58 hitters with at least 15 home runs, the only ones with a lower strikeout rate are Buster Posey, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Only six of Rizzo's two home runs have come with two strikes, as he does his damage early in the count. In fact, what's interesting is that Rizzo isn't a great two-strike hitter, ranking just 47th among qualified hitters in two-strike wOBA; but with one strike or no strikes, he's hitting .387 and ranks seventh in wOBA. So you can try and get ahead of Rizzo with a fastball, but you better spot it in the right place: He has the sixth-best wOBA in the majors against fastballs.
As for the MVP race, here are the position-player WAR leaders entering Thursday:
Bryce Harper, 7.3
Paul Goldschmidt, 6.9
Brandon Crawford, 6.0
Posey, 5.6
Rizzo, 5.5
A.J. Pollock, 5.5
Joey Votto, 5.1
Only one of those guys is on a team currently in a playoff position, and that's why Rizzo's stock is rising. While some of us believe the MVP Award should simply go to the best player, that's not really how the award is voted on; it's a mixture of numbers, making the playoffs, headlines and big hits, and narrative. Rizzo's narrative is building: His team wasn't supposed to be here, he's been the one constant in a lineup that struggled to score runs at time, he has one of the signature moments of the season with his catch in the stands, and he has a great personal story, beating cancer as a minor leaguer. And did I mention he plays for the Cubs? Heck, he even declared before the season that the Cubs would win the NL Central.
That probably won't happen with the season the Cardinals are having, but making the playoffs is looking like a strong possibility. And that puts Rizzo in the thick of the MVP discussion.
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