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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2016 10:08 pm 
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Scooter wrote:
Sox just are not good. Your manager sucks balls also. But managers do not matter.

Do they? JORR?


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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:52 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bandbox?


Yes, a bandbox. The Cell has been a boon for opposing teams' power hitters, with the ballpark being in the top-6 in the league for HR's every year since 2009, and in the top-3 from 2001-2011.

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d

And as I'm sure you are aware, a postulate based on multiple years of park data tends to be stronger, much stronger even, than one based on a partial season of data. :roll:

In fact, since 2001, and through 2015, the Sox' home ballpark has an average rank in the league of 2.6 when it comes to the long ball. Meaning on average, the park has been no worse than 3rd in the league for opposing teams hitting home runs.

Is that not a bandbox, and if not, how? They're also tied for 6th in the league in least amount of square footage in the outfield, with 87,800 sqft.


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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:16 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bandbox?


Yes, a bandbox. The Cell has been a boon for opposing teams' power hitters, with the ballpark being in the top-6 in the league for HR's every year since 2009, and in the top-3 from 2001-2011.

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d

And as I'm sure you are aware, a postulate based on multiple years of park data tends to be stronger, much stronger even, than one based on a partial season of data. :roll:

In fact, since 2001, and through 2015, the Sox' home ballpark has an average rank in the league of 2.6 when it comes to the long ball. Meaning on average, the park has been no worse than 3rd in the league for opposing teams hitting home runs.

Is that not a bandbox, and if not, how? They're also tied for 6th in the league in least amount of square footage in the outfield, with 87,800 sqft.


I never said it wasn't a park that was prone to home runs. But there are other factors besides the ballpark. Like "Losing Pitcher" John Danks. There are a lot of questionable conclusions being drawn with park factors. But I get the impression that if you read that Sasquatch was real under the Fangraphs banner, you would be here telling us that the yeti lives.

And how do you know the size of the outfield? By the numbers on the wall? Because I know for an absolute fact that measurements on the wall at Wrigley are not accurate. I can't speak to U.S. Cellular though.

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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:23 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I never said it wasn't a park that was prone to home runs.


You took umbrage at my original usage of "bandbox" to describe US Cellular Field. Here is how the colloquial usage of the term "bandbox" came to describe an intimate ballpark conducive to offense, specifically home runs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baker_Bowl#Name

Quote:
"The Cigar Box" and "The Band Box" referred to the tiny size of the playing field. After the demise of the Baker Bowl, the terms "cigar box" and "bandbox" were subsequently applied to any "intimate" ballpark (like Boston's Fenway Park or Brooklyn's Ebbets Field) whose configurations were conducive to players hitting home runs.


Going by that definition, which is how the term is employed in its regular use, US Cellular Field is a "bandbox".

My God, you have "Smartest Guy in the Room Syndrome" like a motherfucker. But like with many people suffering from the condition, your condescension is almost always completely unwarranted.


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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:28 am 
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I may not be the "The Smartest Guy In The Room" but I do understand statistics and scientific method. The term "small sample" has been part of the baseball lexicon since we've all had easy access to computerized statistics. The way you're viewing the numbers in this instance does not meet scientific rigor. The samples are too small and the various personnel establishing the numbers in the various parks are far too different for it to be good statistics or real science. That's all.

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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:34 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I may not be the "The Smartest Guy In The Room" but I do understand statistics and scientific method.


Apparently only when it suits you.

Since 2001, there have been at least 81 games played at US Cellular Field every season through 2015. For the sake of argument, let's assume opposing hitters only got the absolute minimum number of plate appearances per game, per season. That's 27 PA's a game for 81 games across 15 seasons, bringing the absolute minimum size of the entire data-set yielding the average park effects numbers to 32,805.

Also, doesn't the appearance of Hall of Fame pitcher Mark Buehrle more than outweigh the bad brought on by Big Johnny Danks?


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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:55 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I may not be the "The Smartest Guy In The Room" but I do understand statistics and scientific method.


Apparently only when it suits you.

Since 2001, there have been at least 81 games played at US Cellular Field every season through 2015. For the sake of argument, let's assume opposing hitters only got the absolute minimum number of plate appearances per game, per season. That's 27 PA's a game for 81 games across 15 seasons, bringing the absolute minimum size of the entire data-set yielding the average park effects numbers to 32,805.

Also, doesn't the appearance of Hall of Fame pitcher Mark Buehrle more than outweigh the bad brought on by Big Johnny Danks?


Interesting you should mention Buehrle. One thing he wasn't good at was preventing home runs. He allowed about one per game for his career. Now, I suppose you could argue that was because of the park in which he pitched half his games, but that becomes a chicken/egg type thing. And it puts you dangerously close to admitting that ERA and WHIP are heavily park-affected and thus, perhaps not as good a measure of a pitcher as his W/L record.

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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:56 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I may not be the "The Smartest Guy In The Room" but I do understand statistics and scientific method.


Apparently only when it suits you.

Since 2001, there have been at least 81 games played at US Cellular Field every season through 2015. For the sake of argument, let's assume opposing hitters only got the absolute minimum number of plate appearances per game, per season. That's 27 PA's a game for 81 games across 15 seasons, bringing the absolute minimum size of the entire data-set yielding the average park effects numbers to 32,805.

Also, doesn't the appearance of Hall of Fame pitcher Mark Buehrle more than outweigh the bad brought on by Big Johnny Danks?


Interesting you should mention Buehrle. One thing he wasn't good at was preventing home runs. He allowed about one per game for his career. Now, I suppose you could argue that was because of the park in which he pitched half his games, but that becomes a chicken/egg type thing. And it puts you dangerously close to admitting that ERA and WHIP are heavily park-affected and thus, perhaps not as good a measure of a pitcher as his W/L record.
Just blame it all on luck, because that is what smart statistical based men do.

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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:13 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
ERA


ERA+

Quote:
and WHIP


WHIP can certainly be adjusted for league- and park-effects, but why bother? DIPS like FIP and tERA are much easier to manage.

Quote:
are heavily park-affected and thus, perhaps not as good a measure of a pitcher as his W/L record.


Wait, what is it exactly about a pitcher's W/L record that makes it independent of park and/or league effects?


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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:28 am 
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Juice is dominating JORR. I haven't seen something like this since Brentwood.

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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:57 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Wait, what is it exactly about a pitcher's W/L record that makes it independent of park and/or league effects?


I'm sure you can figure it out. Even if you aren't the Smartest Guy in the Room.

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 Post subject: Re: KC @ SOX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:16 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bandbox?


Yes, a bandbox. The Cell has been a boon for opposing teams' power hitters, with the ballpark being in the top-6 in the league for HR's every year since 2009, and in the top-3 from 2001-2011.

http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d
http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type ... 0&sort=6,d

And as I'm sure you are aware, a postulate based on multiple years of park data tends to be stronger, much stronger even, than one based on a partial season of data. :roll:

In fact, since 2001, and through 2015, the Sox' home ballpark has an average rank in the league of 2.6 when it comes to the long ball. Meaning on average, the park has been no worse than 3rd in the league for opposing teams hitting home runs.

Is that not a bandbox, and if not, how? They're also tied for 6th in the league in least amount of square footage in the outfield, with 87,800 sqft.


I never said it wasn't a park that was prone to home runs. But there are other factors besides the ballpark. Like "Losing Pitcher" John Danks. There are a lot of questionable conclusions being drawn with park factors. But I get the impression that if you read that Sasquatch was real under the Fangraphs banner, you would be here telling us that the yeti lives.

And how do you know the size of the outfield? By the numbers on the wall? Because I know for an absolute fact that measurements on the wall at Wrigley are not accurate. I can't speak to U.S. Cellular though.


This must be the story involving you, Jeff Pezatti, a trundle wheel and some peyote caps.

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