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 Post subject: Where should Dunn Bat?
PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:46 am 
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Not third. I know he has a pretty good onbase Pct guy. But how good of pitches will Konerko or Rios get if Dunn hits 4th behind either guy? Thome at three really bothered me. guys hitting 250 should not be a three hitter in my opinion.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:47 am 
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My Lineup:

Pierre
Beckham
Rios
Dunn
Konerko
Ramirez
Quentin
AJ
Morel

3 guys with decent speed in front of Dunn. Maybe if Rios starts seeing shitty pitches, he will walk more.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:50 am 
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like that lineup above, if you swap beckham and alexi

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:52 am 
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I like that, except that Ozzie loves to do the righty-lefty thing so AJ typically bats higher than he should.

I also think you could have either Dunn or Konerko hit 3rd from time to time to mix things up. Rios could be cleanup, and the other slowfooted slugger could be 5th.

Alexei was one of the best power hitting shortstops last season. He needs to be hitting 6th so that he has a chance to drive in more runs. I don't want him anywhere near the top of the lineup on a regular basis.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:56 am 
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312player wrote:
like that lineup above, if you swap beckham and alexi


You can't put Alexi in the two hole if Pierre is expected to steal bases.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:58 am 
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think i heard john duwan say on the murph show some years back that every notch in the lineup is equal to 15 at bats. rather have alexi get 60-75 more abs than beckham. no?

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:04 am 
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312player wrote:
think i heard john duwan say on the murph show some years back that every notch in the lineup is equal to 15 at bats. rather have alexi get 60-75 more abs than beckham. no?


You have to take all the parts to see what makes sense. Sabermetrics would seemingly dictate that as a whole, you'd rather have Alexi get more at-bats, but given the whole lineup, that doesn't work.

That's why stats are only part of the game, and IMO, there are too many people relying on sabermetrics.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:04 am 
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312Whistler, Try reading this again;
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Alexei was one of the best power hitting shortstops last season. He needs to be hitting 6th so that he has a chance to drive in more runs.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:15 am 
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i am by no means a stat tracker... i can barely check my own email.. i don't think beckham is that good..beckham will be the worst 2 hitter in the a.l. ...possibly in the majors

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:29 am 
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312player wrote:
i am by no means a stat tracker... i can barely check my own email.. i don't think beckham is that good..beckham will be the worst 2 hitter in the a.l. ...possibly in the majors


You don't necessarily need a "good" hitter (which, if healthy, Beckham can be) in the 2 hole. You need a patient hitter, especially when you have a very good base stealer leading off.

You have to look at the balance of the lineup.

Plus, like Frank said, why would you want that good of a power hitter being wasted in the 2 hole?

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:34 am 
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312player wrote:
i am by no means a stat tracker... i can barely check my own email.. i don't think beckham is that good..beckham will be the worst 2 hitter in the a.l. ...possibly in the majors

I PREDICT (SAY IT LIKE YOU MEAN IT Bacon will have a nice bounce back year 290 15 80

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:36 am 
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can beckham work a count ? yes but with this line up, just get on base, don't have to rely on pierre swiping bags. this line up in that park is going to be home run heavy.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:39 am 
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I PREDICT ([size=50]SAY IT LIKE YOU MEAN IT

261 14 49

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:44 am 
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Your highest scoring lineup would have Dunn batting first. I realize that's such a great stretch from the conventional wisdom that it isn't worth talking about. So let's talk about reality. As much as SABR guys and danny bernstein will tell you that Pierre is a poor lead-off man because he "doesn't get on base", the truth is he gets on far more than most guys leading off in the big leagues. He's not Brett Butler, but he'll do. I think the two hole is crucial for this lineup and the Sox really don't have an ideal two-hole hitter besides Vizquel, who I hope won't be playing much.

This would be my regular lineup:

Pierre
Rios
Dunn
Konerko
Quentin
Pierzynski
Ramirez
Beckham
Morel

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:53 am 
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Flip Alexei and Quentin, Orr. As you have it, you have 4 station to station runners in a row. Putting Alexei up there would give you some speed, and you wouldn't lose any pop.

Moving Quentin down would give you pop at the bottom of the lineup.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:01 am 
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I'm starting to like the lineup Ozzie is using. Rios in the 5-hole will provide protection for Dunn and Pauly and Ozzie can play a lot of hit and run when he's on first with Quentin, AJ and Alexei all good contact hitters. This lineup has a nice mix of speed and power and Ozzie's going to have these guys on the move.

Pierre
Beckham
Dunn
Pauly
Rios
Quentin
AJ
Alexei
Morel


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:46 am 
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The lineup does not matter. Ozzie can throw whoever he wants out there and the Sox are going to stroll to a division title. The Twins had the worst offseason in the history of baseball. The Tigers suck. Case closed.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:48 am 
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1060 W. Addison

Next question.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:54 am 
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RFDC wrote:
The lineup does not matter. Ozzie can throw whoever he wants out there and the Sox are going to stroll to a division title. The Twins had the worst offseason in the history of baseball. The Tigers suck. Case closed.

8)

Its going to be a fun October

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:37 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Flip Alexei and Quentin, Orr. As you have it, you have 4 station to station runners in a row. Putting Alexei up there would give you some speed, and you wouldn't lose any pop.

Moving Quentin down would give you pop at the bottom of the lineup.


I don't care about "station-to-station". I want guys on base. And I don't particularly want goofs like Ramirez getting picked off when a guy who might be the team's best hitter is coming up. Quentin is so far superior to Ramirez as a batter, it's almost absurd. Quentin's worst Sox year is better than Alexei's best.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:47 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Quentin is so far superior to Ramirez as a batter, it's almost absurd. Quentin's worst Sox year is better than Alexei's best.

That could be, but its hard for Quentin to get numbers when he is sitting on the disabled list.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:48 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Quentin is so far superior to Ramirez as a batter, it's almost absurd. Quentin's worst Sox year is better than Alexei's best.

That could be, but its hard for Quentin to get numbers when he is sitting on the disabled list.


True, but I'm not planning on that. Are you? :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:49 am 
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sjboyd0137 wrote:
Pierre
Beckham
Rios
Dunn
Konerko
Ramirez
Quentin
AJ
Morel


I like this lineup as long as Alex Rios is playing like he did in the first half of last season, as opposed to his annual late-season swoon. Ideally, I wouldn't worry about speed in front of Dunn because just about 1/2 of his hits are extra base hits, and short of a runner being able to score from first on a double you can pretty much have grandma in a walker score from 2nd/3rd when he does what he does. He's the quintessential cleanup hitter because he's going to come in and swing for the fences, thus cleaning up whatever sloppy mess is clogging up the bases via walks or hits </dusty>

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:59 am 
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sinicalypse wrote:
Ideally, I wouldn't worry about speed in front of Dunn because just about 1/2 of his hits are extra base hits, and short of a runner being able to score from first on a double you can pretty much have grandma in a walker score from 2nd/3rd when he does what he does.


That's why Konerko is hitting behind Dunn

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:06 am 
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I Rios in the two-hole because he sees many more pitches than any other guy you might logically bat there.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:16 pm 
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In the Trib today Mark Gonzales suggests that the lineup used by Guillen today against the Giants "could be a snapshot of Opening Day." As Keyser mentioned, it is

Pierre
Bacon
Dunn
Konerko
Rios
Quentin
Pierzynski
Ramirez
Morel

The only things I would do is perhaps flipping PK and Dunn in the 3-4. Now I'm not sure anybody expects another .312 39 homer season from Paulie at age 35, but he and Beckham could see plenty of fastballs batting behind Pierre and in front of Dunn. Ozzie usually likes to flip his left and right hand hitters, but with Pierre obviously glued to the leadoff spot, it probably matters less where the 2 other lefthanded hitters (Dunn and AJ) are inserted to break up the string of righthanders. I kind of like Rios down there in the 5, as he might actually be able to run at times, unless some of the 1-4 hitters are already on and there is a possibility of a huge crooked number.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:18 pm 
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Rios saw 3.67 pitches per AB last season while Beckham saw 3.70. Also if you hit Rios in front of Dunn and Pauly you take his speed away.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:33 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Rios saw 3.67 pitches per AB last season while Beckham saw 3.70. Also if you hit Rios in front of Dunn and Pauly you take his speed away.


Okay, I was looking at guy with more than 500 PA. Beckham had 498. I have no problem with him batting second. Like I said, they don't really have an ideal guy.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 2:09 pm 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Also if you hit Rios in front of Dunn and Pauly you take his speed away.

How exactly does that happen? If you hit Rios after Dunn and Konerko, his speed is definitely taken away. He would have two guys in front of him clogging up the bases who run like they are carrying a piano on their back.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 2:16 pm 
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If Rios is on first with less than 2 outs, obviously Dunn or Konerko is at the plate. Conventional wisdom is you don't take the bat out of the hand of your big sluggers. This is also a reason that traditionally, a relatively weak hitter is at #2.

There will be times hitting down in the order where Rios will be leading off or hitting with nobody on.

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