Why not both?

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Because Abreu's OPS is still over 800?

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Abreu is in regression. I like to look at wOBA for guys that are allergic to base on balls because it takes into account that a walk is not as good as a hit.

2017 .377
2018 .337
2019 .331

With the juiced ball wOBA average is up 10 points this year.

I've changed my mind about Abreu. He's falling off the table and I would guess that by next year he will be an average MLB hitter. It's not suitable for a below avg 1st Baseman defensively to be an average hitter.

I'd still offer him 2 yrs $25 mildough for intangibles and the waiting game for Vaughn.

wOBA values walks more highly than OPS does.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/comparing-mar ... a-and-ops/

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

What's a marginal double and single?

It is defined within the methodology. The marginal walk / single / double is one more plate appearance being added onto the actual 2011 season-end data for the 305 players used in the study.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Sure Abreu may regress a little as he gets older. Its clear though he has focused more about power and run production this year than getting on base. Not really a bad thing.

Saying he is "falling off the table" is absurd because even with his poor hitting since the AS Break he is still over an .800 OPS.

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The marginal walk is weighted more than the marginal single. Correct? Why? And where did I get the idea that wOBA did not weight a walk as much as a hit? Did a particular reading of wOBA steer me wrong perhaps or did I just fuck it up?

I've not been a huge follower of wOBA. I know the formula changes a bit from year to year. There are probably several benefits to it. But OPS definitely values a single much more than a walk. wOBA also values a single more but just slightly.

I think the truth is probably between the two. But OPS is extremely transparent AND accurate which is why I prefer it as the simplest single plate appearance metric.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

.785! Goodness...

More like valleys and lower valleys.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

I have confidence in FAR SUPERIOR, but he has not been good since the All-Star break.

Fact is few on the Sox have been good since the break.

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His OBP is barely above .300 right now. A .320 is about average. Not good.

.784

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I think both Abreu and McCann are tired, especially McCann and it is showing with their hitting. Also, the loss of both Jimenez and Anderson in the line-up puts more pressure on the two of them to drive in runs. When you have a worthless slug like Castillo hitting in the middle of your order you know also that the pitcher will work around both Abreu and McCann. The Sox, in losing Jimenez and Anderson left huge holes in the batting order. Just take a look at the bottom of the line-up. No power and nobody getting on base. It would be easy to pitch through the Sox line-up if you knew what you were doing.

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An Ode to the Texas man who shot an Antifa terrorist:

Oh, he might have went on livin'
But he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the Ranger
With the big iron on his hip

That's bullshit. The being tired is bullshit, McCann has started at catcher only 66 times and only has 305 PA. Abreu isn't tired. This is his MO. Hot as hell or slumping.

With McCann, isn't it much more likely that this is who he is? He batted .320ish for most of the 1st half. He doesn't play every single day and gets plenty of rest. I'd be careful with overpaying him based on his 1st half. He can be part of a rotation at catcher.

I think he will be overpayed and I'm fine with it. He's a very effective catcher. Effective enough to be the main catcher on a championship team. And that's the goal. Competing for a championship.

I think he is tired(McCann) and he has started a lot more games in the last two months. Maybe I am wrong but I see it that way along with the fact that Abreu and McCann have no one behind them in the order. The protection given to a hitter is HUGE. As for the general dogging of Abreu that you do, I think Abreu is having a very good year considering the holes in the Sox line-up. If he were a selfish hitter, his OBA would be better. HE is a stud.

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An Ode to the Texas man who shot an Antifa terrorist:

Oh, he might have went on livin'
But he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the Ranger
With the big iron on his hip

I don't dog Abreu. I just know his field worth. I know his clubhouse worth. I know who's been "protecting" him since 2014. Now, we have to wait for the final ABs of the season, but more than likely, this will be his 3rd straight year of regression. It's damn near August and he still hasn't reached 1 WAR. Be that as it may, that DOESN'T mean I don't want him signed. I want him at 1st base during a run and during playoffs. It's just the grind of 162 games that he is becoming more and more "just a guy".

I have to really disagree. I think that you really low ball his true worth to that team. You define him as "regressing" I think you are completely wrong and undervalue him. He is at the top echelon of AL first basemen in RBIS and home runs and his average will be just fine when the season is finished. "JUST A GUY"? Bunk.

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An Ode to the Texas man who shot an Antifa terrorist:

Oh, he might have went on livin'
But he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the Ranger
With the big iron on his hip

Settle down. Jorge Soler has more RBI and HR.

Abreu is 16.3% off the AL lead in RBI and 35.3% off the AL lead in HR. 14 AL players have more HR than Abreu.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

I just want to pay Abreu for what he will do and not what he's done. There's holes to fill and that will take very many millions of dollars. I'm fine with 2 years at $25-30. Anything more than that in years or money is just stupid.

I said first basemen did I not? I give a shit what Jorge Soler does. You're a Cub fan which means you do not know shit about baseball.

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An Ode to the Texas man who shot an Antifa terrorist:

Oh, he might have went on livin'
But he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the Ranger
With the big iron on his hip

He's worth more than that and more than 2 years is certainly required. He is still in his prime and is having a fine season. I give a shit about these holes requiring money. Reinsdork has more money than Solomon and he needs to spend it, especially on pitching. Losing Abreu not only would be stupid from a batting order perspective but also from the team solidarity perspective. He is a leader on this team and exactly the kind of leader that a team wants to have.

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An Ode to the Texas man who shot an Antifa terrorist:

Oh, he might have went on livin'
But he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the Ranger
With the big iron on his hip

This thread would just be piling on at this point.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

You converted me. Well, not converted but I am looking at the guy without bias now. He has in-between-itis. That'll keep a 32 year old veteran in a contract year up at night.

Well, after saying it since his rookie year, IMU may have finally been right about Abreu.

I like to brag about winning a hand of blackjack after I lost the previous five so I get it.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

He's trended downward every single season after his rookie year except 2017, but okay...

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

I would sit Abreu today, and bat him no higher than 5th or 6th for the next series or two. He doesn't look comfortable or confident at the plate. He looked like he was standing on a surfboard last nite flailing at some of the pitches he whiffed on. Very few on the Sox have played well since the AS break, but Abreu has been particularly brutal.

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As of today, he is a completely league average batter on the year with a 100 OPS+. You can't have that at first base. I will be honest...I did not think he would slip this far. He will have a bit of positive regression. But I still see him as hovering around .800 OPS for what's left of his career as a regular. And that isn't enough production at 1B for the type of contract others will offer him...not when you have these solid young pieces.

Abreu was good for the White Sox for many seasons. I could see why Abreu would want to stay. I can more easily see why it would benefit the White Sox to move on.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.